Incorporating catastrophic risk assessments into setting conservation goals for threatened pacific salmon

Ecological Applications

Volumn 18, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 246-257

  Good, Thomas P ^a   Davies, Jeremy ^a   Burke, Brian J ^a   Ruckelshaus, Mary H ^a  

^a NORTHWEST FISHERIES SCIENCE CENTER   (United States)

Author keywords

Catastrophic loss; Chinook salmon; Evolutionarily significant unit (ESU); Onchorhynchus tshawytscha; Population viability; Puget Sound; Risk analysis; Species recovery planning

Indexed keywords

CATASTROPHIC EVENT; ENDANGERED SPECIES; ENDANGERED SPECIES ACT; LIFE HISTORY; POPULATION DISTRIBUTION; POPULATION GROWTH; RISK ASSESSMENT; SALMONID; VIABILITY;

ANIMAL; ARTICLE; ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION; RISK ASSESSMENT; SALMON; UNITED STATES; WATER POLLUTANT;

ANIMALS; CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES; RISK ASSESSMENT; SALMON; WASHINGTON; WATER POLLUTANTS, CHEMICAL;

NORTH AMERICA; PUGET SOUND; UNITED STATES; WASHINGTON [UNITED STATES];

ONCORHYNCHUS; ONCORHYNCHUS TSHAWYTSCHA; VERTEBRATA;

EID: 42149170569     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/06-1724.1     Document Type: Article

References (68)

1. Allison, G. W., S. D. Gaines, J. Lubchenco, and H. P. Possingham. 2003. Ensuring persistence of marine reserves: catastrophes require adopting an insurance factor. Ecological Applications 13(Supplement):S8-S24.
2. Andrewartha, H. G., and L. C. Birch. 1954. The distribution and abundance of animals. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
3. Battin, J., M. Wiley, M. Ruckelshaus, R. Palmer, E. Korb, K. Bartz, and H. Imaki. 2007. Projected impacts of future climate change on salmon habitat restoration actions in a Puget Sound river. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (USA) 104:6720-6725.
4. Beacham, T. D., and T. P. T. Evelyn. 1992. Genetic variation in disease resistance and growth of chinook, coho, and chum salmon with respect to vibriosis, furunculosis, and bacterial kidney disease. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 121:456-485.
5. Beechie, T., E. Buhle, M. Ruckelshaus, A. Fullerton, and L. Holsinger. 2006. Hydrologic regime and the conservation of salmon life history diversity. Biological Conservation 130:560-572.
6. Bisson, P. A., G. H. Reeves, R. E. Bilby, and R. J. Naiman. 1997. Watershed management and Pacific salmon: desired future conditions. Pages 447-474 in D. J. Stouder, P. A. Bisson, and R. J. Naiman, editors. Pacific salmon and their ecosystems: status and future options. Kluwer Academic Publishers, New York, New York, USA.
7. Bonnell, M. L., R. G. Ford, and A. J. Brody. 1996. Assessing the threat of oil spills to Southern Sea Otters. Endangered Species Update 13(12):38-42.
8. Bragg, D. C. 2000. Simulating catastrophic and individualistic large woody debris recruitment for a small riparian system. Ecology 81:1383-1394.
9. Brantley, S., and B. Myers. 2000. Mount St. Helens - from the 1980 eruption to 2000. U.S. Geological Survey fact sheet 036-00. U.S. Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, Washington, USA. 〈http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2000/fs036-00〉
10. Brooks, T., and M. L. Smith. 2001. Caribbean catastrophes. Science 294:1469-1471.
11. Clarke, K. R. 1993. Non-parametric multivariate analyses of changes in community structure. Australian Journal of Ecology 18:117-43.
12. Clarke, K. R., and R. N. Gorley. 2001. PRIMER (Plymouth routines in mulitvariate ecological research) version 5. User manual/tutorial. PRIMER-E, Plymouth, UK.
13. Coutant, C. C. 1998. What is "normative" for fish pathogens? A perspective on the controversy over interactions between wild and cultured fish. Journal of Aquatic Animal Health 10:101-106.
14. Dorava, J. M., and A. M. Milner. 1999. Effects of recent volcanic eruptions on aquatic habitat in the Drift River, Alaska, USA: implications at other Cook Inlet region volcanoes. Environmental Management 23:217-230.
15. Ellingwood, B., R. B. Corotis, J. Boland, and N. P. Jones. 1993. Assessing cost of dam failure. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management 119:64-82.
16. Erman, D. C., E. D. Andrews, and M. Yoder-Williams. 1988. Effects of winter floods on fishes in the Sierra Nevada. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 45:2195-2200.
17. ESRI [Environmental Systems Research Institute]. 2005. ArcGIS version 9.1. ESRI, Redlands, California, USA.
18. Ewing, R. D. 1999. Diminishing returns: salmon decline and pesticides. Oregon Pesticide Education Network (Oregon Environmental Council, Northwest Coalition for Alternatives to Pesticides, OSPIRG Foundation, and Institute for Fisheries Resources), Eugene, Oregon, USA. 〈http://www.pesticide.org/ salpest.pdf〉
19. Flagg, T. A., B. A. Berejikian, J. E. Colt, W. W. Dickhoff, L. W. Harrell, D. J. Maynard, C. E. Nash, M. S. Strom, R. N. Iwamoto, and C. V. W. Mahnken. 2000. Ecological and behavioral impacts of artificial production strategies on the abundance of wild salmon populations. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFSNWFSC-41, 92 p.
20. Foley, P. 1997. Extinction models for local populations. Pages 211-246 in I. Hanski and M. E. Gilpin, editors. Metapopulation biology. Academic Press, San Diego, California, USA.
21. Gardner, C. A., K. M. Scott, C. D. Miller, B. Myers, W. Hildreth, and P. T. Pringle. 1995. Potential volcanic hazards from future activity of Mount Baker, Washington - 1995 updated volcano-hazards assessment. USGS Open-File Report 95-498. U.S. Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, Washington, USA. 〈http://vulcan.wr.usgs.gov/Volcanoes/Baker/Hazards/OFR95- 498/OFR95-498.html〉
22. Gerber, L. R., and R. Hilborn. 2001. Catastrophic events and recovery from low densities in populations of otariids: implications for risk of extinction. Mammal Review 31:131-150.
23. Groot, C., and L. Margolis. 1991. Pacific salmon life histories. University of British Columbia Press, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada.
24. Hanski, I., and O. Gaggiotti. 2004. Ecology, genetics, and evolution of metapopulations. Elsevier Academic Press, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
25. Hemmingsen, A. R., R. A. Holt, R. D. Ewing, and J. D. McIntyre. 1986. Susceptibility of progeny from crosses among three stocks of coho salmon to infection by Ceratomyxa shasta. Transactions of the American Fisheries Society 115:492-495.
26. Hoblitt, R. P., J. S. Walder, C. L. Driedger, K. M. Scott, P. T. Pringle, and J. W. Vallance. 1998. Volcano hazards from Mount Rainier, Washington, revised 1998. U.S. Geological Survey Open-file Report 98-428.
27. Hoekstra, J. M., J. A. Clark, W. F. Fagan, and P. D Boersma. 2003. A comprehensive review of Endangered Species Act recovery plans. Ecological Applications 12:630-640.
28. Hofmeister, R. J. 2000. Slope failures in Oregon: GIS inventory for three 1996/97 storm events. Special Paper 34. Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries, Portland, Oregon, USA. Also available as one CD from Nature of the Northwest, Portland, Oregon, USA.
29. Lande, R. 1993. Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes. American Naturalist 142:911-927.
30. Leider, S. A. 1989. Increased straying by adult steelhead trout, Salmo gairdneri, following the 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens. Environmental Biology of Fishes 24:219-229.
31. Levin, P. S., and M. H. Schiewe. 2001. Preserving salmon biodiversity. American Scientist 89:220-227.
32. Levy, M., and M. Salvadori. 1992. Why buildings fall down. W. W. Norton & Company, New York, New York, USA.
33. Manson, C. J., and L. Walkling. 1998. Tsunamis on the Pacific Coast of Washington State and adjacent areas - a selected, annotated bibliography and directory. Washington Division of Geology and Earth Resources Open-file Report 98-4. Washington Department of Natural Resources, Olympia, Washington, USA.
34. Martin, D. J., L. J. Wasserman, and V. H. Dale. 1986. Influence of riparian vegetation on posteruption survival of coho salmon fingerlings on the west-side streams of Mount St. Helens, Washington. North American Journal of Fisheries Management 6:1-8.
35. McCain, B. B., D. D. Malins, M. M. Krahn, D. W. Brown, W. D. Grondlund, L. K. Moore, and S. L. Chan. 1990. Uptake of aromatic and chlorinated hydrocarbons by juvenile Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in an urban estuary. Archives of Environmental Contamination and Toxicology 19:10-16.
36. McElhany, P., M. H. Ruckelshaus, M. J. Ford, T. C. Wainwright, and E. P. Bjorkstedt. 2000. Viable salmonid populations and the recovery of evolutionarily significant units. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-NWFSC-42.
37. Mesa, M. G., T. P. Poe, A. G. Maule, and C. B. Schreck. 1998. Vulnerability to predation and physiological stress responses in juvenile chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) experimentally infected with Renibacterium salmoninarum. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 55:1599-1606.
38. Minns, C. K., and R. Wilson. 2005. DFO Climate variability and change impacts and adaptations research for Canada's marine and freshwater fisheries: Proccedings of a workshop held in Halifax, April 3-May 2, 2000, and the results of a background review of activities and needs. Canada Technical Report of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 2575. 〈http://www.fishclimate.ca/ publications.htm#other〉
39. Mote, P. W., E. A. Parson, A. F. Hamlet, W. S. Keeton, D. Lettenmaier, N. Mantua, E. L. Miles, D. W. Peterson, D. L. Peterson, R. Slaughter, and A. K. Snover. 2003. Preparing for climatic change: the water, salmon and forests of the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change 61:45-88.
40. NMFS [National Marine Fisheries Service]. 2007. Endangered and threatened species; recovery plans: notice of adoption of ESA recovery plan for the Puget Sound chinook salmon ESU. Pages 2493-2495 in Federal Register 72 (19 January). U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C., USA.
41. Noson, L. L., A. Qamar, and G. W. Thorsen. 1988. Washington State earthquake hazards. Information Circular 85. Washington Department of Natural Resources, Division of Geology and Earth Resources, Olympia, Washington, USA.
42. NRC [National Research Council]. 1996. Upstream: salmon and society in the Pacific Northwest. National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., USA.
43. PSTRT [Puget Sound Technical Recovery Team]. 2002. Planning ranges and preliminary guidelines for the delisting and recovery of the Puget Sound Chinook salmon evolutionarily significant unit. Memorandum for Usha Varanasi, Director, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, from the Puget Sound TRT (M. Ruckelshaus, K. Currens, W. Graeber, R. Fuerstenberg, K. Rawson, N. Sands, and J. Scott). 〈http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/trt/puget/trtpopesu.pdf〈
44. Ralls, K., D. P. DeMaster, and J. A. Estes. 1996. Developing a criterion for delisting the southern sea otter under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Conservation Biology 10:528-1537.
45. Reed, D. H., J. J. O'Grady, J. D. Ballou, and R. Frankham. 2003a. The frequency and severity of catastrophic die-offs in vertebrates. Animal Conservation 6:109-114.
46. Reed, D. H., J. J. O'Grady, B. W. Brook, J. D. Ballou, and R. Frankham. 2003b. Estimates of minimum viable population sizes for vertebrates and factors influencing those estimates. Biological Conservation 113:23-34.
47. Rice, S. D., R. E. Thomas, M. G. Carls, R. A. Heintz, A. C. Wertheimer, M. L. Murphy, J. W. Short, and A. Moles. 2001. Impacts to pink salmon following the Exxon Valdez oil spill: persistence, toxicity, sensitivity, and controversy. Reviews in Fisheries Science 9:165-211.
48. Rieman, B. E., and J. B. Dunham. 2000. Metapopulation and salmonids: a synthesis of life history patterns and empirical observations. Ecology of Freshwater Fish 9:51-64.
49. Ruckelshaus, M. H., K. P. Currens, W. H. Graeber, R. R. Fuerstenberg, K. Rawson, N. J. Sands, and J. B. Scott. 2006. Independent populations of Chinook salmon in Puget Sound. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-NWFSC-78.
50. Ruckelshaus, M. H., P. McElhany, M. M. McClure, and S. Heppell. 2004. Chinook salmon in Puget Sound: effects of spatially correlated catastrophes on persistence. Pages 208-218 in R. Ackakaya, M. Burgman, O. Kindvall, C. C. Wood, P. Sjogren-Gulve, J. S. Hatfield, and M. A. McCarthy, editors. Species conservation and management: case studies. Oxford University Press, New York, New York, USA.
51. Scheffer, M., S. Carpenter, J. A. Foley, C. Folke, and B. Walkerk. 2001. Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems. Nature 413:591-596.
52. Schreck, C. B. 1996. Immunomodulation: endogenous factors. Pages 311-338 in G. Iwama and T. Nakanishi, editors. The fish immune system: organism, pathogen, and environment. Academic Press, New York, New York, USA.
53. SYSTAT. 2000. Statistics I and II. Version 10. SPSS, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
54. USFWS [U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service]. 2005. Short-tailed Albatross draft recovery plan. U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Anchorage, Alaska, USA. 〈http://ecos.fws.gov/docs/recovery_plans/2005/051027.pdf〉
55. USGS [United States Geological Survey]. 1997. Hazard maps of the U.S. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 97-131 and 97-130. 〈ftp://hazards. cr.usgs.gov/hazmaps/gis/〉
56. Wade, M. 1986. The relative effects of Ceratomyxa shasta on crosses of resistant and susceptible stocks of summer steelhead. Information Report 86-8. Oregon Department of Fish Wildlife, Portland, Oregon, USA.
57. Waitt, R. B., L. G. Mastin, and J. E. Begét. 1995. Volcanic-hazard zonation for Glacier Peak volcano, Washington. Open-file Report 95-499. U.S. Geological Survey, Cascades Volcano Observatory, Vancouver, Washington, USA.
58. Waknitz, F. W., T. J. Tynan, C. E. Nash, R. N. Iwamoto, and L. G. Rutter. 2002. Review of potential impacts of Atlantic salmon culture on Puget Sound Chinook salmon and Hood Canal summer-run chum salmon evolutionarily significant units. U.S. Department of Commerce, NOAA Technical Memorandum NMFS-NWFSC-53.
59. Waples, R. S. 1991. Pacific salmon, Oncorhynchus spp., and the definition of "species" under the Endangered Species Act. Marine Fisheries Review 53(3):11-22.
60. Waples, R. S. 1995. Evolutionarily significant units and the conservation of biological diversity under the Endangered Species Act. Pages 8-27 in J. L. Nielsen, editor. Evolution and the aquatic ecosystem: defining unique units in population conservation. American Fisheries Society, Bethesda, Maryland, USA.
61. Waples, R. S., and O. Gaggiotti. 2006. What is a population? An empirical evaluation of some genetic methods for identifying the number of gene pools and their degree of connectivity. Molecular Ecology 15:1419-1439.
62. WDFW (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife). 2005. Washington lakes and rivers information system (WLRIS) fish distribution database. Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Olympia, Washington, USA. 〈http://wdfw.wa. gov/hab/release.htm〉
63. WDFW and PSTT (Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife and Puget Sound Treaty Tribes). 2004. Resource Management Plan. Puget Sound Chinook Salmon hatcheries. A component of the comprehensive Chinook salmon management plan. 〈http://wdfw.wa.gov/hat/draft_chinook_management_plan.pdf〉
64. WDNR (Washington Department of Natural Resources). 2000. Slope stability. 〈http://www.dnr.wa.gov/forestpractices/data〉 WDOE (Washington Department of Ecology). 2003. Ecology's spatial datasets. Facility/site and dam databases. 〈http://www.ecy.wa.gov/services/gis/data/data.htm〉
65. WS (Washington State). 2004. Hazard identification and vulnerability assessment: hazard profile - flood. Washington State Military Department, Emergency Management Division, Camp Murray, Washington, USA. 〈http://emd.wa.gov/plans/documents/Tab_7.1.4_Flood_final.pdf〉
66. WSDOT (Washington State Department of Transportation). 2004. WSDOR Geodata distribution catalog. State highways at 1:24,000. 〈http://www. wsdot.wa.gov/mapsdata/geodatacatalog〉
67. Young, T. P. 1994. Natural die-offs of large mammals: implications for conservation. Conservation Biology 8:410-418.
68. Zar, J. H. 1999. Biostatistical analysis. Fourth edition. Prentice-Hall, Upper Saddle River, New Jersey, USA.