From semi-stagnation to growth in a sino-centric market

Revista de Economia Politica

Volumn 28, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 3-27

  de Castro, Antonio Barros ^a  

^a FEDERAL UNIVERSITY OF RIO DE JANEIRO   (Brazil)

Author keywords

Growth; Semi stagnation; Sino centric

Indexed keywords

EID: 42149144078     PISSN: 01013157     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1590/s0101-31572008000100001     Document Type: Article

References (41)

1. This statistic represents the weighted average of the growth rate of 15 Asian and Latin-American economies between 1950 and 1980. MADDISON, Angus La economía mundial en el siglo XX. Fondo de Cultura Económica. México, 1992
2. The Brazilian tax system, conceived in 1967, suffered - with the passing of time and successive crises - such a number of modifications and corrections that it admittedly became an inconsistent collection full of distortions.
3. Other advances would unquestionably be necessary. See KHAIR, Amir, AFONSO, José Roberto & OLIVEIRA, Weder. "Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal: Os avanços e aperfeiçoamentos necessários". In: MENDES, Marcos (Org.) Gasto Público Eficiente. TOPBOOKS, 2006.
4. FRAGA, Armínio, Latin America since the 90's: Raising from the sickbed. Journal of Economic Perspective, Vol. 18, no. 2, 2004.
5. The article is about the impact of the structutal reforms in Latin America, and places Brazil as second in the depth of reforms experienced among the seven strongest regional economies. As for the indicators the author used to examine the reforms, see LORA, Eduardo. Structural Reforms in Latin America: What bas been reformed and how to measure it. Inter-American Development Bank, Washington D.C., 2001.
6. See CASTRO, Antonio Barros de. "A reestruturação industrial'do Brasil nos anos 90. Uma interpretação". Revista de Economia Politica, jul/set 2001,
7. and KUPFER, Davi, PERRAZ, João Carlos & IOOTTY, Mariana. "Made in Brazil: Industrial Competitiveness 10 years after Economic Liberalization". Revista da Cepal. Chile, 2004.
8. The expression was coined by João Furtado in the article: "O comportamento inovador das empresas industriais". In VELLOSO, João Paulo dos Reis & CAVALCANTI, Roberto (Orgs). Cinco décadas de questão social e os grandes desafios do crescimento sustetntável. José Olympio, 2004.
9. GONZAGA MIBIELLI, Paulo. As causas do aumento daprodutividade na indústria brasileira nos anos 90. PhD Dissertation, Instituto de Economia, UFRJ, 2000.
10. The first broad investigation of the competitive strategies of Brazilian manufacturing industry is found in DE NEGRI. João Alberto & SALERNO, Mário Sérgio (Orgs). Inovaçãos, padrões tecnológicos e desempenhos das firmas industriais brasileiras. IPEA, 2005.
11. CASTRO, Antonio Barros de. A Hipótese do Crescimento Rápido e Sustentável. VELLOSO, João Paulo do crescimento sustentado, José Olympio, 2005.
12. Agribusiness is not going to be in focus here, but it is important to point out that this large and diversified sector was a pioneer in growing by incorporating technical progress. BARROS, José R., RIZZIERL, Juarez & PICHETTI, Paulo. "Effects of Agricultural Research". In: BARBOSA, Marissa, Impacts of the Agricultural Sector Technological Change on the Brazilian Economy. EMBRAPA SGF., 2002.
13. There was, in the past, rapid growth together with high inflation Brazil. But it is important to stress that the institutional regimen adopted in 1964-68 (in the eve of the period of very rapid growth) allowed, to a certain extent, economic calculation, and, given the extension of the indexation, limited to a residue the expropriation associated with high inflation.
14. A similar combination of discontinuity, at the political level, with continuity in the broader options - of economic policy, seems to have happened in Latin America only in the Chilean transition to democracy.
15. Data was obtained from PAES DE BARROS, Ricardo, FOGUEL, Miguel & ULYSSEA, Gabriel (Orgs). Desigualdade de renda no Brasil. Uma análise da queda recente. IPEA, 2007.
16. Data on quantum originate from FUNCEX, and information about electrical and electrical goods is from IES (Sectorial Economic Investigations), VALOR, January 27th, 2007.
17. About the relation between instability and (low) growth in Latin America, see ZETTELMEYER, Jeromin, Growth and Reforms in Latin America: a Survey of Facts and Arguments. IMF, 2006.
18. Global Economic Prospects. Managing the Next Wave of Globalization. World Bank. 2006.
19. We refer here to growth potential, that is, not to how much the economy grew in the past (and/or as a function of production), but due to the resources and competences that can be mobilized for growth - including, and highlighting, the accumulated knowledge accumulated at the level of enterprises, research institutes, and governmental teams.
20. CONSONI, Flávia Luciane. Da tropicalização ao projeto de veículos: um estudo das competências em desenvolvimento de produtos nas montadoras de automóveis no Brasil. Instituto de Geo-Ciências, Universidade Estadual de Campinas, August 2004.
21. The changes mentioned here were identified and commented on in the BNDES' Sinopse do investimento, August 2006, by CASTRO, Antônio Barros de & PIRES DE SOUZA, Francisco Eduardo, under the title, "Especialização e diversidade na indústria: o desafio contido nos mais recentes dados".
22. World Economic Outlook, International Monetary Fund. September 2006.
23. South Korea and Taiwan also departed from very low levels of average income, but these were (as it has already been said) 'half-nations', which could not develop significant gravitational force.
24. The almost exclusive reference to China in this text is justified (amongst other reasons) by the fact that, while this country employs approximately 100 million workers in industry, India has an industrial workforce of 7 million individuals. Indeed, from 1985 to 2005, the Chinese foreign trade jumped from 1,6% to 7,3% of world trade.
25. Cf. 2004 World Economic Outlook, Chapter 5: The boom in non fuel commodity prices: can it last?
26. DELONG, J. Bradford. Productivity Growth in the 2000s. University of California, Berkley 2002.
27. RESENDE, Marco Flávio da Cunha & AMADO, Adriana. "Liquidez internacional e ciclo reflexo: algumas observações para a América Latina". Revista de Economia Política, Volume 27, January-March 2007. The issues associated to the dependence on natural resources (the 'resource curse') are at the origin of CEPAL's defense of the industrialization. In the end of the 1950s, Furtado produced a dark/shady and premonitory report about the Venezuelan case. Typical deformations (including at the political level) associated to the 'resource curse' were recently pointed out by STIGLITZ, Joseph, in his Making Globalization Work. W. W. Norton & Company, 2006 (chapter 5). For many years, mainstream economics tried to deny the specific difficulties that an emerging economy centered in natural resources tend to face. See, for instance, From Natural Resources to the Knowledge Economy. World Bank, September 2001. The pessimism about the dependence on natural resources is however being restored in the last years.
28. Something unthinkable in the two last decades of the last century is also part of this context: the fast cancellation of foreign debts, including by pre-payment, from the part of countries which were, until very recently, plunged into severe crises derived from the high foreign indebtedness.
29. The average tax which burdens the imports in China dropped from 42.9%, in 1992, to 12.3%, in 2002.
30. Given the speed with which China absorbs new technologies, the average productivity of labor in that country increases more than the average in the other countries. About the increase in the Chinese industrial productivity, see the January 2006 article by RODRIK, Dani. "What is so special about China's export?", available on the author's website.
31. GOLDENSTEIN, Moris & LARDY, Nicholas. 'China's Exchange Rate Policy Dilemma". American Economic Review, May 2006.
32. The Newly Industrialized Countries. Challenges and Opportunity for OECD Industries. OECD, 1998.
33. BATISTA, Jorge Chami & ALMEIDA DOS SANTOS. "Industrialização da pauta de exportação." (1964 e 1974). Revista Brasileira de Economia Política, April/June 2007.
34. For a characterization of the Chinese path - and some striking differences to the Korean one - see LIU, Xielin. China's Development Model: An Alternative for technological Catch-up. Hiotsubashi University, liuxielinηotmailcom, March 2005; See also KROEBER, Arthur. Inovação: Todo o Errado. Carta da China, Edição Especial, April 2007. Conselho Empresarial Brasil-China.
35. CUI, Li & HUSSAIN SYED, Murtaza. Is China Changing its Stripes? The Shifting Structure of China's External Trade and its Implications. International Monetary Fund, April 2007
36. ARBIX, Glauco, SALERNO, Mario Sérgio & DE NEGRI, João Alberto. "A nova competitividade da indústria e o novo empresariado". In VELLOSO, João Paulo dos Reis (Org) O Desafio da China e da India. A resposta do Brasil. José Olympio, 2005.
37. PENROSE, Edith. The Theory of the Growth of the Firm. Oxford University Press, 1995;
38. CORIAT, Benjamin & DOSI, Giovanni. "The Nature and Accumulation of Organizational Competences and Capabilities". Revista Brasileira de Inovação, July/December 2002.
39. About the 'advantages of semi-stagnation' referred here, see CASTRO, Antonio Barros. A Hipótese do Crescimento Rápido c Sustentado, op.cit.
40. SABÓIA, João. Geração de emprego industrial nas capitais e no interior do Brasil. SENAI, Brasília, 2005.
41. Primeiro Balanço do PAC, janeiro a abril de 2007. [PAC - First Evaluation, January to April 2007].