Coupling hydrologic and infectious disease models to explain regional differences in schistosomiasis transmission in southwestern China

Environmental Science and Technology

Volumn 42, Issue 7, 2008, Pages 2643-2649

  Remais, Justin ^a   Liang, Song ^a   Spear, Robert C ^a  

^a Berkeley   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS; DISEASES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PARAMETER ESTIMATION;

HYDROLOGIE VARIABILITY; SCHISTOSOMIASIS TRANSMISSION;

HYDROLOGY;

RAIN;

DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS; DISEASES; HYDROLOGY; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PARAMETER ESTIMATION;

CHANNEL FLOW; CLIMATE CHANGE; DISEASE PREVALENCE; DISEASE TRANSMISSION; EPIDEMIOLOGY; FLATWORM; INFECTIOUS DISEASE; LARVA; PARAMETERIZATION; RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING; RISK ASSESSMENT; SCHISTOSOMIASIS;

ANALYTIC METHOD; ARTICLE; CERCARIA; CHINA; ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE; HYDROLOGY; INFECTION; PARASITE TRANSMISSION; PREVALENCE; RISK ASSESSMENT; SCHISTOSOMA JAPONICUM; SCHISTOSOMIASIS; WEATHER;

CALIBRATION; CHINA; HUMANS; MODELS, BIOLOGICAL; SCHISTOSOMIASIS;

ASIA; CHINA; EURASIA; FAR EAST;

SCHISTOSOMA JAPONICUM;

EID: 41649116080     PISSN: 0013936X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1021/es071052s     Document Type: Article

References (44)

1. Gagnon, A.; Smoyer-Tomic, K.; Bush, A. The El Nino-Southern Oscillation and malaria epidemics in South America. Int. J. Biometeorol. 2002, 46, 81-89.
2. Lobitz, B.; Beck, L.; Huq, A.; Wood, B.; Fuchs, G.; Faruque, A.; Colwell, R. Climate and infectious disease: Use of remote sensing for detection of Vibrio cholerae by indirect measurement. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2000, 4, 1438-1443.
3. Engelthaler, D.; Mosley, D.; Cheek, J.; Levy, C.; Komatsu, K.; Ettestad, P.; Davis, T.; Tanda, D.; Miller, L.; Frampton, J.; Porter, R.; Bryan, R. Climatic and environmental patterns associated with hantavirus pulmonary syndrome, Four Corners region, United States. Emerging Infect. Dis. 1999, 5 (1), 87-94.
4. Shaman, J.; Day, J.; Stieglitz, M. The association of drought, wetting and human cases of St. Louis encephalitis virus in south-central Florida. Am. J. Trop. Med Hyg. 2004, 71, 251-261.
5. Shaman, J.; Spiegelman, M.; Cane, M.; Stieglitz, M. A hydrologically driven model of swamp water mosquito population dynamics. Ecol. Modell. 2006, 194 (4), 395-404.
6. Shaman, J.; Stieglitz, M.; Stark, C.; Le Blancq, S.; Cane, M. Using a dynamic hydrology model to predict mosquito abundances in flood and swamp water. Emerging Infect. Dis. 2002, 8 (1), 6-13.
7. Beven, K. J.; Quinn, P.; Romanowicz, R.; Freer, J.; Fisher, J.; Lamb, R. TOPMODEL and GRIDATB, a User Guide to the Distribution Versions (95.02); CRES Technical Report 110, 2nd ed.; Lancaster University: Lancaster, U.K., 1995.
8. Patz, J. A.; Strzepek, K.; Lele, S.; Hedden, M.; Greene, S.; Noden, B.; Hay, S. I.; Kalkstein, L.; Beier, J. C. Predicting key malaria transmission factors, biting and entomological inoculation rates, using modelled soil moisture in Kenya. Trop. Med. Int. Health 1998, 3 (10), 818-827.
9. Mascie-Taylor, C. G.; Karim, E. The burden of chronic disease. Science 2003, 302, 1921-1922.
10. Ross, A. G. P.; Sleigh, A. C.; Li, Y. S.; Davis, G. M.; Williams, G. M.; Jiang, Z.; Feng, Z.; McManus, D. P. Schistosomiasis in the People's Republic of China: Prospects and challenges for the 21st century. Clin. Microbiol. Rev. 2001, 14 (2), 270-295.
11. Spear, R. C.; Seto, E.; Liang, S.; Birkner, M.; Hubbard, A.; Qiu, D.; Yang, C.; Zhong, B.; Xu, F.; Gu, X.; Davis, G. Factors influencing the transmission of Schistosoma japonicum in the mountains of Sichuan Province. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 2004, 70 (1), 48-56.
12. Liang, S.; Seto, E.; Remais, J.; Zhong, B.; Yang, C.; Hubbard, A.; Davis, C.; Gu, X.; Qiu, D.; Spear, R. C. Environmental effects on transmission and control of parasitic diseases exemplified by schistosomiasis in Western China. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 2007, 104 (17), 7110-7115.
13. Maszle, D. R.; Whitehead, P. C.; Johnson, R. C.; Spear, R. C. Hydrological studies of schistosomiasis transport in Sichuan Province, China. Sci. Total Environ. 1998, 216 (3), 193-203.
14. Lowe, D.; Xi, J.; Meng, X.; Wu, Z.; Qiu, D.; Spear, R. Transport of Schistosoma japonicum cercariae and the feasibility of niclosamide for cercariae control. Parasitol. Int. 2005, 54 (1), 83-9.
15. Xu, B.; Gong, P.; Seto, E.; Liang, S.; Yang, C.; Wen, S.; Qiu, D.; Gu, X.; Spear, R. C. A spatial-temporal model for assessing the effects of inter-village connectivity in schistosomiasis transmission. Ann. Am. Assoc. Geogr. 2006, 96 (1), 31-46.
16. SIPD Epidemiological Factors of Schistosomiasis in Mountainous Regions, China; Sichuan Institute of Parasitic Disease: Chengdu, China, 1990; p 80.
17. Spear, R. C.; Hubbard, A.; Liang, S.; Seto, E. Disease transmission models for public health decision making: Toward an approach for designing intervention strategies for Schistosomiasis japonica. Environ. Health Perspect. 2002, 110 (9), 907-915.
18. Jakeman, A. J.; Hornberger, G. M. How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall-runoff model. Water Resour. Res. 1993, 29 (8), 2637-2649.
19. Jakeman, A. J.; Littlewood, I. G.; Whitehead, P. G. Computation of the Instantaneous unit-hydrograph and identifiable component flows with application to 2 small upland catchments. J. Hydrol. 1990, 117 (1-4), 275-300.
20. Post, D. A.; Jakeman, A. J. Predicting the daily streamflow of ungauged catchments in S. E. Australia by regionalising the parameters of a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model. Ecol. Modell. 1999, 123 (2-3), 91-104.
21. Schreider, S. Y.; Jakeman, A. J.; Dyer, B. C.; Francis, R. I. A combined deterministic and self-adaptive stochastic algorithm for streamflow forecasting with application to catchments of the Upper Murray Basin, Australia. Environ. Modell. Software 1997, 12 (1), 93-104.
22. Schreider, S. Y.; Jakeman, A. J.; Pittock, A. B. Modelling rainfall-runoff from large catchment to basin scale: The Goulburn Valley, Victoria. Hydrol. Processes 1996, 10 (6), 863-876.
23. Schreider, S. Y.; Jakeman, A. J.; Pittock, A. B.; Whetton, P. H. Estimation of possible climate change impacts on water availability, extreme flow events and soil moisture in the Goulburn and Ovens Basins, Victoria. Clim. Change 1996, 34 (3-4), 513-546.
24. Croke, B. F. W.; Andrews, F.; Jakeman, A. J.; Cuddy, S.; Luddy, A. Redesign of the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model; 29th Hydrology and Water Resources Symposium, 2005; Engineers Australia: Canberra, Australia, 2005.
25. Schreider, S. Y.; Jakeman, A. J.; Letcher, R. A.; Nathan, R. J.; Neal, B. P.; Beavis, S. G. Detecting changes in streamflow response to changes in non-climatic catchment conditions: Farm dam development in the Murray-Darling basin, Australia. J. Hydrol. 2002, 262 (1-4), 84-98.
26. Dye, P. J.; Croke, B. F. W. Evaluation of streamflow predictions by the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model in two South African catchments. Environ. Modell. Software 2003, 18 (8-9), 705-712.
27. Ye, W.; Bates, B. C.; Viney, N. R.; Sivapalan, M.; Jakeman, A. J. Performance of conceptual rainfall-runoff models in low-yielding ephemeral catchments. Water Resour. Res. 1997, 33 (1), 153-166.
28. Schilling, K.; Libra, R. Increased baseflow in Iowa over the second half of the 20th century. J. Am. Water Resour. Assoc. 2003, 39 (4), 851-860.
29. Anderson R. M.; May, R. M. Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control; Oxford University Press: Oxford, U. K., 1991.
30. Liang, S.; Maszle, D.; Spear, R. C. A quantitative framework for a multi-group model of Schistosomiasis japonicum transmission dynamics and control in Sichuan, China. Acta Trop. 2002, 82 (2), 263-277.
31. Pesigan, T. P.; Farooq, M.; Hairston, N. G. Studies on Schistosoma japonicum infection in the Philippines. 2. The molluscan host. Bull. W.H.O. 1958, 18, 481-578.
32. Whitfield, P. J.; Bartlett, A.; Khammo, N.; Clothier, R. H. Age-dependent survival and infectivity of Schistosoma mansoni cercariae. Parasitology 2003, 127 (Part 1), 29-35.
33. Miyairi, K.; Suzuki, M. On the development of Schistosoma japonicum. Tokyo Iji Shinski 1913, 1836, 1-5.
34. Ito, J. Studies on the survival of Schistosoma japonicum in vitro. 5. The viability of eggs of Schistosoma japonicum the exereta of several hosts. Jpn. J. Med. Prog. 1953, 41, 370-374.
35. McGarry, M. G.; Stainforth, J. Compost, Fertilizer, and Biogas Production from Human and Farm Wastes in the People's Republic of China. International Development Research Centre: Ottawa, Canada, 1978; p 93.
36. National Schistosomiasis Research Committee. Studies on Schistosomiasis japonicum in New China. Chin. Med. J. 1959, 78, 368-379.
37. Liang, S.; Spear, R. C.; Seto, E.; Hubbard, A.; Qiu, D. A multi-group model of Schistosoma japonicum transmission dynamics and control: Model calibration and control prediction. Trop. Med. Int. Health 2005, 10 (3), 263-278.
38. Matlab, R13, version R13. Mathworks Inc.: Natick, MA, 2004.
39. Hubbard, A.; Liang, S.; Maszle, D.; Qiu, D.; Gu, X.; Spear, R. C. Estimating the distribution of worm burden and egg excretion of Schistosoma japonicum by risk group in Sichuan Province, China. Parasitology 2002, 125 (Part 3), 221-231.
40. Remais, J.; Hubbard, A.; Wu, Z.; Spear, R. Weather-driven dynamics of an intermediate host: Mechanistic and statistical population modelling of Oncomelania hupensis. J. Appl. Ecol. 2007, 44 (4), 781-791.
41. May, R. M. Togetherness among Schistosomes. Math. Biosci. 1977, 35, 301-343.
42. Li, Y. S.; Sleigh, A. C.; Ross, A. G. P.; Williams, G. M.; Tannerc, M.; McManus, D. P. Epidemiology of Schistosoma japonicum in China: Morbidity and strategies for control in the Dongting Lake region. Int. J. Parasitol. 2000, 30, 273-281.
43. Upatham, E. Effect of a waterfall on the infectivity of St. Lucian Schistosoma mansoni cercariae. Trans. R. Soc. Trop. Med. Hyg. 1973, 67 (6), 884-885.
44. Driscoll, A.; Kyle, J.; Remais, J. Development of a novel PCR assay capable of detecting a single Schistosoma japonicum cercaria recovered from Oncomelania hupensis. Parasitology 2005, 131 (1), 1-4.