Thinking strategically about Iraq: Report from a symposium

Middle East Policy

Volumn 15, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 82-110

  Kahl, Colin H ^a,b   Katulis, Brian ^c   Lynch, Marc ^d  

^a GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b Center for A New American Security

^c CENTER FOR AMERICAN PROGRESS   (United States)

^d GEORGE WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 41549096789     PISSN: 10611924     EISSN: 14754967     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4967.2008.00340.x     Document Type: Article

References (152)

1. A PDF version of the symposium can be downloaded here: http://abuaardvark.typepad.com/abuaardvark/2007/11/debate-pdf.html.
2. See, for example, Tony Blankley, "Victory in Iraq," The Washington Times, November 14, 2007.
3. Mowaffek al-Rubaie, "Federalism, Not Partition," The Washington Post, January 18, 2008.
4. Edward P. Joseph and Michael E. O'Hanlon, The Case for Soft Partition in Iraq, Brookings Institution, Saban Center Analysis, No. 12, June 2007.
5. The Brooking Institution, Iraq Index, January 28, 2008, p. 5.
6. Iraq Body Count, "Civilian Deaths from Violence in 2007," http://www.iraqbodycount.org/analysis/numbers/2007/.
7. Thomas E. Ricks and Karen DeYoung, "Al-Qaeda in Iraq Reported Crippled," The Washington Post, October 15, 2007;
8. Damien Cave, "Militant Group is Out of Baghdad, U.S. Says," The New York Times, November 8, 2007;
9. and Richard A. Oppel Jr. and Qais Mizher, "Bomber Kills Sunni Allies of the U.S.," The New York Times, January 21, 2008.
10. Sam Dagher, "How Much Safer is Baghdad Now?" Christian Science Monitor, November 27, 2007;
11. Ann Scott Tyson, "Petraeus Says Cleric Helped Curb Violence," The Washington Post, December 7, 2007.
12. Based on the monthly tabulations provided by Iraq Coalition Casualty Count, http://icasualties.org/oif/.
13. See Joe Klein, "The Ramadi Goat Grab," Time, October 25, 2007;
14. and "Cleric Renews Call For End to Sectarian Violence," Associated Press, November 28, 2007.
15. Charles Levinson, "As al-Maliki Gains Strength, Some Question His Will for Unity," USA Today, January 16, 2008.
16. White House, Benchmark Assessment Report, September 14, 2007, p. 6;
17. and Thomas E. Ricks and Karen DeYoung, "For U.S., The Goal Is Now 'Iraqi Solutions'," The Washington Post, January 10, 2008.
18. Wayne White, "Can Iraqis Beat the Ticking Clock?" MEI Commentary, November 27, 2007, http://www.mideasti.org/commentary/can- iraqis-beat-ticking-clock.
19. Alissa J. Rubin, "Ending Impasse, Iraq Parliament Backs Measures," The New York Times, 2/14/08.
20. Amit R. Paley and Joshua Partlow, "Iraq's New Law on Ex-Baathists Could Bring Another Purge," The Washington Post, January 23, 2008.
21. David Kilcullen, "Don't Confuse the 'Surge' with the Strategy," Small Wars Journal Blog, January 19, 2007, http://smallwarsjournal.com/ blog/2007/01/dont-confuse-the-surge-with-th/;
22. and Ann Scott Tyson, "New Strategy for War Stresses Iraqi Politics," The Washington Post, May 23, 2007.
23. Kimberly Kagan, "How They Did It," The Weekly Standard, November 11, 2007;
24. and Scott Peterson, "Iraq Offensive: Clear Out Militants-And Stay," Christian Science Monitor, January 14, 2008.
25. Greg Jaffe, "How Courting Sheiks Slowed Violence In Iraq," The Wall Street Journal, August 8, 2007;
26. and Dave Kilcullen, "Anatomy of a Tribal Revolt," Small Wars Journal Blog, August 29, 2007, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/08/ anatomy-of-a-tribal-revolt/.
27. "DoD Press Briefing with Lt. Gen. Odierno from the Pentagon," May 31, 2007, http://www.defenselink.mil/transcripts/transcript.aspx? transcriptid=3973.
28. Michael R. Gordon, "The Former-Insurgent Counterinsurgency," New York Times Magazine, September 2, 2007;
29. Linda Robinson, "Iraq Trip Report," Small Wars Journal Blog, September 16, 2007, http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/2007/09/where-do- we-go-from-here/;
30. and Nancy A. Youssef, "U.S. Finds a Way to Pacify Iraqi Town-By Using Cash," McClatchy Newspapers, November 13, 2007.
31. Department of Defense, Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, December 2007, p. 17;
32. Sudarsan Raghaven, "New Leaders of Sunnis Make Gains in Influence," The Washington Post, January 8, 2008;
33. and Solomon Moore and Richard A. Oppel Jr., "Attacks Imperil U.S.-Backed Militias in Iraq," The New York Times, January 24, 2008.
34. Evan Kohlman, "State of the Sunni Insurgency in Iraq," The NEFA Foundation, August 2007, pp. 15-22;
35. Muhammad Abu Rumman, "Iraq: The Politics of Sunni Armed Groups," Arab Reform Bulletin, Vol. 7, Issue 5, September 2007;
36. and Bill Roggio, "The Army of the Men of the Naqshbandiyah Order," The Long War Journal, October 4, 2007, http://www. longwarjournal.org/archives/2007/10/al_douri_forms_natio.php.
37. "Iraqi Fighters Form Political Group," Al Jazeera, October 13, 2007, http://english.aljazeera.net/NR/exeres/739ElA85-1F25-41AA- 9B5F-EBD595177845.htm.
38. John F. Burns and Alissa J. Rubin, "U.S. Arming Sunnis in Iraq to Battle Old Qaeda Allies," The New York Times, June 11, 2007.
39. Sudarsan Raghaven, "For U.S. and Sadr, Wary Cooperation," The Washington Post, March 16, 2007.
40. Carol J. Williams and Saad Fakhrildeen, "Iraq: 1 Million Evacuated From Shrine in Karbala," Los Angeles Times, 8/28/07;
41. Joshua Partlow and Saad Sarhan, "Sadr Orders 'Freeze' on Militia Actions," Washington Post, August 30, 2007;
42. and Dean Yates, "U.S. Military Encouraged by Sadr Freeze on Militia," Reuters, 9/1/07.
43. Sam Dagher, "Iraq's Sadr Uses Lull to Rebuild Army," Christian Science Monitor, December 11, 2007.
44. Tyson, "Petraeus Says Cleric Helped Curb Violence."
45. Ned Parker, "Iraqi Civilian Deaths Plunge," Los Angeles Times, November 1, 2007;
46. and Joshua Partlow and Naseer Nouri, "In Iraq, a Lull or Hopeful Trend," The Washington Post, November 2, 2007.
47. Kamil al-Mehaidi, "Geographical Distribution of Iraqi Oil Fields and Its Relation with the New Constitution," Revenue Watch Institute (Iraq), May 2006.
48. Edward P. Joseph and Michael E. O'Hanlon, The Case for Soft Partition in Iraq, pp. 21-22.
49. Rubin, "Ending Impasse, Iraq Parliament Backs Measures," The New York Times, 2/14/08.
50. Ricks, "Iraqis Wasting Opportunity, U.S. Officials Say."
51. Ghaith Abdul-Ahad, "Meet Abu Abed: The U.S.'s New Ally Against al-Qaida," The Guardian, November 10, 2007;
52. Jon Lee Anderson, "Letter from Iraq: Inside the Surge," The New Yorker, November 19, 2007;
53. and Jonathan Steele, "Iraqi Insurgents Regrouping, Says Sunni Resistance Leader," The Guardian, December 3, 2007.
54. The U.S. military claims that the vast majority of CLC recruits have had their biometric information recorded. Fadel, "U.S. Sponsorship of Sunni Groups Worries Iraq's Government."
55. Christian Berthelsen, "U.S. Commander in Iraq: Sectarian Bias Limits Police," Los Angeles Times, October 27, 2007;
56. Michael R. Gordon, "Iraq Hampers U.S. Bid to Widen Sunni Police Role," The New York Times, October 28, 2007;
57. and Cara Buckley, "U.S. Military Plans to Bolster Iraqi Sentry Forces by 10,000," The New York Times, November 29, 2007.
58. Hoda Jasim and Rahma al Salem, "The Awakening Council: Iraq's Anti-al-Qaeda Sunni Militias," Asharq Alawsat, December 29, 2007;
59. Peter Spiegel, "U.S. Shifts Sunni Strategy in Iraq," Los Angeles Times, January 14, 2008;
60. and Solomon Moore, "Ex-Baathists Get a Break. Or Do They?" The New York Times, January 14, 2008.
61. Karen DeYoung and Amit R. Paley, "U.S. Plans to Form Job Corps for Iraqi Security Volunteers.," The Washington Post, December 7, 2007.
62. Quoted in Ricks, "Iraqis Wasting an Opportunity, U.S. Officials Say."
63. Parker, "Iraqi Civilian Deaths Plunge."
64. Sadr has recently threatened to end his freeze, but this may simply be posturing to defend himself against criticisms from more extreme elements within his movement. See Alissa J. Rubin, "Despite Deadly Clashes in Iraq, Shiite Pilgrims Spared," The New York Times, January 19, 2008.
65. Rubin, "A Calmer Iraq: Fragile, and Possibly Fleeting."
66. Michael R. Gordon and Stephen Farrell, "Iraq Lacks Plan on the Return of Refugees, Military Says," The New York Times, November 30, 2007;
67. and Cara Buckley, "Refugees Risk Coming Home to an Unready Iraq," The New York Times, December 20, 2007.
68. General James L. Jones (Ret.) (Chairman), The Report of the Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq, September 6, 2007, chapter 4.
69. For a discussion of some of the ways to expand transition teams, see James N. Miller and Shawn W. Brimley, Phased Transition: A Responsible Way Forward and Out of Iraq, Center for a New American Security, June 2007, pp. 43-49.
70. Jones, The Report of the Independent Commission on the Security Forces of Iraq, chapter 9.
71. Lauren Frayer, "Sunni-Kurdish Deal a Try for Iraq Unity," Associated Press, December 5, 2007;
72. Basil Adas, "Arabs, Turkmen and Kurds Start Talk on Kirkuk Future," GulfNews.com, December 6, 2007, http://www.gulfnews.com/ region/Iraq/10172902.html.
73. Ned Parker, "Kirkuk Referendum Needed, Kurdish Leader Says," Los Angeles Times, January 15, 2008;
74. and "Iraqi Alliances: Shifting Sands," Asharq Alawsat, January 28, 2008.
75. Andrew E. Kramer, "Two Shiite Leaders in Iraq Reach a Peace Agreement," The New York limes, October 7, 2007.
76. Bassem Mroue, "Basra Pullout Will Test Iraqi Forces," The Washington Post, September 6, 2007;
77. "Shia Factions Proclaim Truce in Iraq's Basra, Reuters, December 11, 2007;
78. and Peter Spiegel, "British Tout Basra Model," Los Angeles Times, December 14, 2007.
79. Tom Vanden, "U.S., Iraq Set Stage for Talks on Ties," USA Today, November 26, 2007.
80. "Declaration of Principles for a Long-Term Relationship of Cooperation and Friendship Between the Republic of Iraq and the United States of America," November 26, 2007, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2007/ 11/20071126-11.html.
81. Perhaps along the lines suggested by Brian Katulis, Lawrence J. Korb, and Peter Juul, Strategic Reset: Reclaiming Control of U.S. Security in the Middle East, Center for American Progress, June 25, 2007.
82. Transcript available at: http://media.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/ documents/armed_semces_cmte_hearing_091107.html.
83. CBS News/New York Times Poll, December 5-9, 2007.
84. Aamer Madhani, "$45,000 Is Latest Army Sweetener for Recruits," Los Angeles Times, October 21, 2007.
85. General George W Casey, "Maintaining Quality in the Force," Briefing at the Brookings Institution on December 4, 2007.
86. Thom Shanker, "Marines Press to Remove Their Forces from Iraq," The New York Times, October 11, 2007.
87. Michael Abramowitz and Peter Baker, "Bush Faces Pressure to Shift War Priorities," The Washington Post, December 17, 2007.
88. See Lawrence Korb and Brian Katulis, "Strategic Redeployment: A Progressive Plan for Iraq and the Struggle against Violent Extremists," Center for American Progress, September 2005.
89. Pauline Jelinek, "General Says N. Iraq Most Violent Region," Associated Press, November 19, 2007.
90. Michael Gordon, "Pushed Out of Baghdad, Insurgents Move North," The New York Times, December 6, 2007.
91. Alissa J. Rubin, "A Calmer Iraq: Fragile, and Possibly Fleeting," The Washington Post, December 5, 2007.
92. Babak Dehghanpisheh, "The 'Body Contractors'," Newsweek, December 24, 2007.
93. Peter Spiegel, "Iraq's Numbers Don't Add Up, U.S. Says," Los Angeles Times, November 30, 2007.
94. Sudarsan Raghavan, "Iraq's Youthful Militiamen Build Power through Fear," The Washington Post, December 13, 2007.
95. Karen DeYoung and Amit R. Paley, "U.S. Plans to Form Job Corps for Iraqi Security Volunteers," The Washington Post, December 7, 2007.
96. See Senator Joseph Biden, "Plan For Iraq," PlanForIraq. com, November 30, 2007.
97. Zaid Sabah and Ann Scott Tyson, "Security Pact on Iraq Would Set U.S. Exit," The Washington Post, December 11, 2007.
98. See ABC News/BBC/NHK Poll, "Iraq: Where Things Stand," conducted August 17-24, 2007; the poll found that a majority of Iraqis, 57 percent, thought that attacks on coalition forces were acceptable, representing a 40-point increase since February 2004.
99. For a good outline of the roles the United Nations might play, see Carlos Pascual, "The United Nations In Iraq," Brookings Institution Policy Paper, Number 3, September 2007.
100. Stephen Biddle, "Iraq: Can We Guard What We've Gained?" The Washington Post, December 10, 2007, and remarks to George Washington University Security Policy Forum, December 2, 2007.
101. For a similar view, see Rend Rahim Francke, "Political Progress in Iraq During the Surge," United States Institute of Peace Special Report 196, December 2007.
102. Marc Lynch, "Crocker vs Petraeus," Praeger Security International, August 15, 2007;
103. Ned Parker, "Iraq Calmer, but More Divided," Los Angeles Times, December 10, 2007.
104. James D. Fearon, "Iraq's Civil War," Foreign Affairs, March/April 2007.
105. As quoted by Waleed Ibrahim, "Iraq VP Says Won't Ratify Key Baathists Law," Reuters, January 31, 2008.
106. Thomas Ricks, "Iraqis Wasting an Opportunity, Officers Say," The Washington Post, November 15, 2007.
107. Frederick Kagan, "Reconcilable Differences," Weekly Standard, November 12, 2007;
108. Steven Lee Myers and Alissa Rubin, "U.S. Scales Back Political Goals for Iraqi Unity," The New York Times, November 25, 2007.
109. As reported in al-Zaman, October 29, 2007.
110. Joshua Patlow and Ann Scott Tyson, "Hurdles Stall Plans for Iraqi Recruits," The Washington Post, November 11, 2007.
111. Karen DeYoung and Amit Paley, "U.S. Plans to Form Job Corps for Iraqi Security Volunteers," The Washington Post, December 7, 2007.
112. Aswat al-Iraq, September 26, 2007; Sam Dagher, "The Sunni in Iraq's Shiite Leadership," Christian Science Monitor, November 14, 2007.
113. Richard Murphy, phone interview with author, December 11, 2007.
114. Al-Hayat, October 16, 2007. Other accounts suggest a more positive reception for Hakim; for example,
115. see al-Zaman October 14, 2007.
116. "Shiite Politics in Iraq: The Role of the Supreme Council," International Crisis Group, November 15, 2007;
117. also see Francke Political Progress in Iraq During the Surge."
118. Sam Dagher, "Will Armloads of US Cash Buy Tribal Loyalty?" Christian Science Monitor, November 8, 2007;
119. Jon Lee Anderson, "Inside the Surge," The New Yorker, November 19, 2007.
120. See Jonathan Steele, "Iraqi Insurgents Regrouping, Says Sunni Resistance Leader," The Guardian, December 4, 2007;
121. Awni Qalamji, "Retreat of Iraqi Resistance," Al-Quds al-Arabi, December 4, 2007.
122. Shammari on al-Jazeera, September 17, 2007. In an interview with the Qatari newspaper al-Arab on December 17, 2007, Shammari categorically denied that the IAI had a relationship with the Awakenings.
123. Ahmed Abu Risha, interviewed on al-Arabiya, November 25, 2007.
124. Trudy Rubin, "A Powerful Awakening Shakes Up Iraqi Politics," Philadelphia Inquirer, December 12, 2007.
125. As quoted by Hassan al-Barari, "The Abu Ghurayb Awakening", Al-Ghad, January 3, 2008;
126. also see Abu Azzam interview on al-Arabiya, January 18, 2008.
127. "Out of the Shadows" The Guardian, July 19, 2007.
128. Mutlaq on al-Jazeera, October 19, 2007;
129. Hashemi open letter released October 12, 2007.
130. Also see Pepe Escobar, "It's the Resistance, Stupid," Asia Times October 17, 2007.
131. Published on al-Haq Agency, September 2 2007. A similar argument was made by Hareth al-Dhari of the Association of Muslim Scholars in an open letter, September 1, 2007.
132. For instance, see Abdullah al-Janabi letter as posted on the al-Boraq forum, December 3, 2007;
133. and Hareth al-Dhari's open letter to the Iraqi tribes, December 1, 2007.
134. Al-Jazeera, November 21, 2007.
135. Text of the letter can be found at http://www.iraq-amsi.org/ news.php?action=view&id=21040&a9d8b6dd9a138af90f8ce277b6e6f337
136. This argument was recently made by Douglas MacGregor, "Will Iraq's Great Awakening Lead to a Nightmare?" Mother Jones, December 11, 2007
137. See M. Abbas, "Struggle for Political and Religious Representation," Al-Hayat, November 25, 2007.
138. Al-Hayat, August 5, 2007;
139. Aswat al-Iraq, August 15, 2007;
140. Waleed Ibrahim, "Iraq Mps Block Maliki Nominees for Cabinet Posts," McClatchy, November 29, 2007.
141. For account of Abd al-Aziz Hakim speech praising the Awakenings, see al-Zaman, December 4, 2007;
142. on Abu Risha's reciprocal prase, see Al-Hayat, December 13, 2007.
143. Leila Fadel, "U.S. Sponsorship of Sunni Groups Worries Iraq's Government," McClatchy, November 29, 2007;
144. Al-Hayat, "Warnings That Al-Qaeda Is Penetrating the Security Services and the Awakenings," November 26, 2007.
145. Al-Hayat, November 15, 2007 and November 25, 2007.
146. Aswat al-Iraq, November 17, 2007.
147. Aswat al-Iraq, February 6, 2008.
148. BBC/ABC/NHK survey, conducted in all 19 provinces during August.
149. Al-Hayat, January 13, 2008.
150. See Nir Rosen, "No Going Back", Boston Review, September 2007.
151. Christopher Kojm, "Here's the Surge Iraq Needs," Christian Science Monitor, December 13, 2007.
152. CBS/NY Times poll, December 6-9, 2007. Available at www.pollingreport.com/iraq.