Predicting the regional onset of the rainy season in West Africa

International Journal of Climatology

Volumn 28, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 329-342

  Laux, Patrick ^a   Kunstmann, H ^a   Bardossy A ^b  

^a KARLSRUHE INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF STUTTGART   (Germany)

Author keywords

Decision support system; Farming management strategies; Fuzzy logic; Linear discriminant analysis; Onset of the rainy season; Principal component analysis; Volta basin; West Africa

Indexed keywords

CATCHMENTS; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS; DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS; FUZZY LOGIC; PRECIPITATION (METEOROLOGY); PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

FARMING MANAGEMENT STRATEGY; RAINY SEASON; REGIONAL ONSET;

RAIN;

CLIMATE PREDICTION; DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEM; DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS; FUZZY MATHEMATICS; PRECIPITATION (CLIMATOLOGY); PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS; RAINFALL; REGIONAL CLIMATE;

AFRICA; SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA; VOLTA BASIN; WEST AFRICA;

EID: 40949122825     PISSN: 08998418     EISSN: 10970088     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/joc.1542     Document Type: Article

References (29)

1. Ati OF, Stigter CJ, Oladipo EO. 2002. A comparison of methods to determine the onset of the growing season in Northern Nigeria. International Journal of Climatology 22: 731-742.
2. Benoit P. 1977. The start of the growing season in northern Nigeria. Agricultural Meteorology 18: 91-99.
3. Chamberlin P, Diop M. 2003. Application of daily rainfall principal component analysis to the assessment of the rainy season characteristics in Senegal. Climate Research 23: 159-169.
4. Davidson NE, McBride JL, McAvaney BJ. 1983. The onset of the Australian monsoon during winter MONEX: Synoptic aspects. Monthly Weather Review 111: 496-516.
5. Durbin J, Watson GS. 1950. Testing for serial correlation in least squares regression I. Biometrika 37: 409-428.
6. Graef F, Haigis J. 2001. Spatial and temporal rainfall variability in the Sahel and effects on farmers' management strategies. Journal of Arid Environments 48/2: 221-231.
7. Hendon HH, Liebmann B. 1990. A composite study of onset of the Australian summer monsoon. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 47: 2909-2923.
8. Holland GJ. 1986. Interannual variability of the Australian summer monsoon at Darwin: 1952-82. Monthly Weather Review 114: 594-604.
9. Ilesamni OO. 1972. An empirical formulation of the onset, advance and retreat of rainfall in Nigeria. Journal of Tropical Geography, 34: 17-24.
10. Judge GG, Hill RC, Griffiths WE, Lutkepohl H, Lee T-C. 1988. Introduction to the Theory and Practice of Econometrics. Wiley: New York.
11. Kaiser HE 1958. The varimax criterion for analytic rotation in factor analysis. Pyrometrical 23: 187-200.
12. Mason SJ. 1998. Seasonal forecasting of south African rainfall using a non-linear discriminant analysis model. International Journal of Climatology 18: 147-164.
13. Middleton GV. 2000. Data Analysis in the Earth Sciences Using MATLAB. Prentice Hall: Saddle River, New Jersey.
14. Neumann R, Jung G, Laux P, Kunstmann H. 2007. Climate trends of temperature, precipitation and river discharge in the Volta Basin of West Africa. International Journal of River Basin Management 5: 17-30.
15. Nicholls N. 1984. A system for predicting the onset of the Australian wet season. Journal of Climatology 4: 425-435.
16. Omotosho JB. 1990. Onset of thunderstorms and precipitation over Northern Nigeria. International Journal of Climatology 10: 840-860.
17. Omotosho JB. 1992. Long-range prediction of the onset and end of the rainy season in the West African Sahel. International Journal of Climatology 12: 369-382.
18. Omotosho JB, Balogun AA, Ogunjobi K. 2000. Predicting monthly and seasonal rainfall, onset and cessation of the rainy season in West Africa using only surface data. International Journal of Climatology 20: 865-880.
19. Richmann MB. 1993. Comments on: The effect of domain shape dependence on principal component analysis. Journal of Climatology 13: 203-218.
20. Roncoli C, Ingrain K, Kirshen P. 2002. Reading the Rains: Local knowledge and rainfall forecasting in Burkina Faso. Society and Natural Resources 15: 409-427.
21. Sarria-Dodd DE, Jolliffe IT. 2001. Early detection of the start of the wet season in semiarid tropical climates of western Africa. International Journal of Climatology 21: 1251-1262.
22. Stem RD, Dennett MD, Garbutt DJ. 1981. The start of the rains in West Africa. Journal of Climatology 1: 59-68.
23. Stewart JI. 1991. Principles and performance of response farming. In Climatic Risk in Crop Production. Models and Management for the Semi-Arid Tropics and Sub-Tropics, Ford W, Muchow RC, Bellamy ZA (eds). CAB International: Wallingford.
24. Sultan B, Janicot S. 2000. Abrupt shift of the ITCZ over West Africa and intraseasonal variability. Geophysical Research Letters 27: 3353-3356.
25. Sultan B, Janicot S. 2003. The west African Monsoon Dynamics, Part II: The "Preonset" and "Onset" of the Summer Monsoon. Journal of Climate 16: 3407-3427.
26. Sultan B, Janicot S, Diedhiou A. 2003.. The west African monsoon dynamics, Part I: Documentation of Intraseasonal Variability. Journal of Climate 16: 3389-3406.
27. Troup AJ. 1961. Variations in upper tropospheric flow associated with the onset of the Australian summer monsoon. Indian Journal of Meteorology and Geophysics 12: 217-230.
28. Walter MW. 1967. Length of the rainy season in Nigeria. Nigerian Geographical Journal 10: 123-128.
29. Ward MN, Folland CK. 1991. Prediction of seasonal rainfall in the north Nordeste of Brazil using eigenvectors of sea-surface temperatures. International Journal of Climatology 11: 711-743.