Is the Russia-Belarus Union obsolete?

Problems of Post-Communism

Volumn 55, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 25-35

  Marples, David R ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF ALBERTA   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 39749131116     PISSN: 10758216     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.2753/PPC1075-8216550103     Document Type: Article

References (45)

1. Itar-Tass 29 (May 29, 2005); www.charter97.org (May 29, 2005).
2. Kommersant (October 21, 2005), www.kommersant.ru/doc. aspx?DocsID=620005.
3. In January 1999, Yugoslavia was granted permanent observer status in the parliamentary assembly of the Russia-Belarus Union (BBC News [January 21, 1999], news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/260152.stm).
4. Kaare Dahl Martensen, "The Russian-Belarusian Union and the Near Abroad" (Norwegian Institute for Defence Studies, 2002), p. 6 (www.nato. int/acad/fellow/99-01/martinsen.pdf).
5. Kommersant (October 21, 2005).
6. However, one analyst sees the change of Russian leadership from Yeltsin to Putin as a significant personal setback for Lukashenka: Aleksandr Feduta, Lukashenko: politicheskaia biografiia (Lukashenka: Political Biography) (Moscow: Referendum, 2005), p. 621.
7. See, for example, Jan Maksymyuk, "A Union Fractured," RFE/RL Newsline (June 19, 2002), www.rferl.org/newsline/2002/06/5-NOT/not-190602.asp.
8. Kommersant (February 17, 2004, October 21, 2005).
9. BBC News (January 19, 2005), news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4186241. stm, citing National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice's opening statement at her confirmation hearing before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee to be confirmed as secretary of state.
10. For the complete elections results of March 2006, see SB-Belarus segodnia (March 24, 2006), www.sb.by/article.php?articleID=50520/.
11. In fairness, both presidents may to some extent reflect the nature of their societies. Putin, in this case, would represent urban Russia and a background in the KGB; Lukashenka, the Belarusian agricultural community of eastern Belarus, which traditionally has had close ties with Russia.
12. See David R. Marples, "Belarus After the March 2006 Presidential Elections," in Prospects for Democracy in Belarus, ed. Joerg Forbrig, David R. Marples, and Pavol Demes, 2d ed. (Washington, DC: German Marshall Fund of the United States, 2006), pp. 200-201.
13. The Vileyka station was established in 1964 and is a communications link for the Russian Navy. In 1995 Belarus and Russia signed an agreement keeping it operative for the next twenty-five years. The same agreement laid the basis for the second station, established in 2002 in the Baranovichi region as part of Russia's Space Forces. The two stations together have some 850 personnel (Kommersant [May 22, 2007], www.kommersant.ru/doc.aspx?DocsID=766827/).
14. Narodnaia gazeta (April 5, 2007).
15. www.iiseps.org/bullet05-1.html. A June 2007 poll conducted by the Eurasian Monitor International Research Agency indicated that 52 percent of Belarusians were willing to unite with Russia - the comparable figures in Kazakhstan and Ukraine were 60 and 55 percent, respectively. Conversely, 27 percent of Belarusians favored joining the EU (compared with 36 percent in Ukraine and 30 percent in Kazakhstan). The poll suggested that more Belarusians than Russians or Ukrainians were satisfied with their lives in their respective countries (65 percent, compared with 51 percent and 35 percent). One can conclude, therefore, that the figures cited for Belarusian professionals do not reflect the sentiments of the population in general (Regnum [June 14, 2007]).
16. RIA-Novosti (June 25, 2005).
17. SB-Belarus segodnia, special issue (July 7, 2005).
18. Narodnaia volia (July 15, 2005).
19. Ibid. (October 12, 2005).
20. Ibid. (October 20, 2005).
21. Kommersant (October 21, 2005).
22. Narodnaia volia (October 12, 2005).
23. Belorusy i rynok (October 3, 2005).
24. SB-Belarus segodnia (June 23, 2006).
25. Belarusian Television (June 23, 2006).
26. Narodnaia gazeta (September 30, 2006).
27. Komsomolskaia pravda v Belorussii (September 30, 2006).
28. Interfax (December 22, 2004).
29. Itar-Tass (November 28, 2006).
30. Belorusskoe telegrafnoe agenstvo (December 30, 2006), (January 1, 2007); RIA-Novosti (January 1, 2007); Agence France-Presse (January 2, 2007).
31. BBC News (January 13, 2007).
32. Itar-Tass (January 14, 2007).
33. Belorusskoe telegrafnoe agenstvo (January 14, 2007); Interfax (January 14, 2007).
34. RIA-Novosti (January 11, 2007).
35. Belorusy i rynok (April 2, 2007).
36. Lukashenka's meaning with regard to Germany is unclear. Concerning Switzerland, he presumably wished to indicate that a small nation without extensive natural resources could remain independent, neutral, and nonaligned without external pressure from larger neighbors.
37. Interview with Lukashenka by A. Rahr, Die Welt (January 25, 2007), www.welt.de/print-welt/article711195/ Die_Opposition_ist_in_Weissrussland_keineswegs_verboten.html (in German), www.president.gov.by/by/press39041.html#doc (www.president.gov.by/en/press3904l. html#doc) (in Belarusian); http://english.pravda.ru/world/ussr/08-02-2007/87197- Lukashenko_Belarus-0/ (in English).
38. The most detailed elaboration of this development to my knowledge is Natalia Leshchenko, "National Ideology in Belarus" (paper presented at the Association for the Study of Nationalities annual conference, New York, April 14, 2007).
39. See, for example, Belorusy i rynok (March 26-April 2, 2007), www. br.minsk.by/index.php?article=29864/; Belorusskaia delovaia gazeta (March 26, 2007); www.charter97.org (March 26, 2007).
40. Belorusskaia delovaia gazeta (May 28, 2007).
41. In a recent announcement, Statkevich confirmed that this movement is to be led by Milinkevich, meaning that there are now two clearly defined opposition forces as well as the supporters of the imprisoned Kazulin. See www.charter97.org (June 5, 2007).
42. In an opinion poll in early 2007, 35.1 percent supported a union with Russia, while 39.3 percent opposed it. Such results may be one explanation for the repeated postponements of a referendum on the RBU in Belarus. See www.iiseps.org/opros45.html.
43. Interfax (June 11, 2007), www.interfax.ru/r/B/0/0.html?id_issue= 11766751/, cites Lukashenka's statement at the informal CIS summit in St. Petersburg that the CIS countries must intensify their cooperation.
44. In late September 2007, Yaroslav Romanchuk, deputy chair of the United Civic Party, remarked, "Not a single democratic force [in Belarus] is pro-Russian and only three percent of Belarusian residents are for a union with Russia" (Baltic Times [September 28, 2007], www.baltictimes.com/ news/articles/18928/). Romanchuk did not reveal the source for this figure. Although some Belarusians support closer ties with Russia, it is fair to say that the concept of a political union is close to defunct.
45. Grigory Ioffe, "Understanding Belarus: Economy and Political Landscape," Europe-Asia Studies 56, no. 1 (2004): 85-118 (http://gioffe.asp.radford. edu/Part%20Three%20Final.pdf).