Living with ambiguity: Nuclear deals with Iran and North Korea

Survival

Volumn 50, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 91-118

  Litwak, Robert S ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 39049124837     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: 14682699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00396330801899496     Document Type: Article

References (49)

1. National Intelligence Council, National Intelligence Estimate - Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities, November 2007, available at http://www.dni.gov/press_releases/20071203_release.pdf (folios not numbered).
2. For a discussion of latency see Mark Fitzpatrick, 'Can Iran's Nuclear Capability Be Kept Latent', Survival, vol. 49, no. 1, Spring 2007, pp. 33-57.
3. Elaine Sciolino, 'Monitoring Agency Praises U.S. Report, but Keeps Wary Eye on Iran', New York Times, 5 December 2007, p. A13.
4. Alexander George, Forceful Persuasion: Coercive Diplomacy as an Alternative to War (Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace Press, 1993), p. 5.
5. White House, Office of the Press Secretary, 'President Delivers State of the Union Address', 29 January 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/ releases/2002/01/20020129-11.html.
6. White House, The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, 17 September 2002, pp. 13-14, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/nsc/nss.html.
7. White House, Office of the Press Secretary, 'oint Statement Between President George W. Bush and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh', 18 July 2005, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2005/07/20050718-6.html.
8. National Security Strategy 2002, transmittal letter.
9. White House, Office of the Press Secretary, 'President Discusses Foreign Policy Matters with NATO Secretary', 21 October 2002, http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/1/0/20021021-8.html.
10. Central Intelligence Agency, Comprehensive Report of the Special Advisor to the DCI on Iraq's WMD, 30 September 2004, volume I, pp. 34-5.
11. Michael R. Gordon and Bernard E. Trainor, Cobra II: The Inside Story of the Invasion and Occupation of Iraq (New York: Pantheon Books, 2006), p. 65
12. Michael R. Gordon and Bernard W. Trainor, 'Hussein Saw Iraqi Unrest as Top Threat', New York Times, 12 March 2006, p. A1.
13. USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll, April 2005, http://www.usatoday.com/news/ polls/tables/live/2005-04-03-poll.htm.
14. John Gaddis, Surprise, Security, and the American Experience (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2004), p. 101.
15. Sonni Efron, 'War with Iraq - Diplomacy: Looking Past Baghdad to the Next Challenge', Los Angeles Times, 6 April 2003, p. 10.
16. For an excellent analysis of this case see Bruce W. Jentleson and Christopher A. Whytock, ''Who "Won" Libya? The Force-Diplomacy Debate and Its Implications for Theory and Policy', International Security vol. 30, no. 3 (Winter 2005-06), pp. 47-86.
17. Daniel Williams, 'Quick Change Suits Libyan Leader', Washington Post 6 March 2004, p. A1.
18. Patrick E. Tyler, 'Libyan Stagnation a Big Factor in Qaddafi Surprise', New York Times, 8 January 2004, p. A3.
19. Meghan L. O'Sullivan, Shrewd Sanctions: Statecraft and State Sponsors of Terrorism (Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2003), p. 204.
20. Ray Takeyh, 'The Rogue Who Came in From the Cold', Foreign Affairs vol. 82, no. 3, May-June 2001, p.65.
21. Guy Dinmore, 'US Stalls over Iran's Offer of Reform Deal', Financial Times, 17 March 2004, p. 1.
22. A former US official confirmed the Financial Times reporting to the author. Also discussed in Barbara Slavin, Bitter Friends, Bosom Enemies: Iran, the U.S., and the Twisted Path to Confrontation (New York: St Martin's Press, 2007), pp. 204-6; pp. 229-31 is an appendix with the text of the document.
23. Guy Dinmore, 'Washington Hardliners Wary of Engaging with Iran', Financial Times, 17 March 2004, p. 7.
24. Ibid.
25. Three years later, Rice argued that that the United States had not missed an opportunity in 2003: 'What the Iranians wanted ... was to be one-onone with the United States so that this could be about the United States and Iran. Now ... Iran has to answer to the international community. I think that's the strongest possible position to be in.' Interview on National Public Radio, 2 June 2006, available at http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2006/67391.htm.
26. Cited in Shahram Chubin, Iran's Nuclear Ambitions (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006), p. 90.
27. Glenn Kessler, 'Protests Loom In London for Visit by Bush', Washington Post, 17 November 2003, p. A1.
28. The P5+1 proposal is detailed in Kenneth Katzman, 'Iran: U.S. Concerns and Policy Responses', CRS Report for Congress, no. RL32048, 6 August 2007, pp. 17-18, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RL32048.pdf.
29. Interview with Condoleezza Rice, Fox News Sunday With Chris Wallace, 21 May 2006, http://www.state.gov/secretary/rm/2006/66536.htm.
30. Federal News Reuter Transcript Service, Ambassador-at-Large Robert Gallucci at the Secretary's Open Forum, 'North Korea and National Security', 12 December 1994.
31. William J. Perry, 'It's Either Nukes or Negotiation', Washington Post 23 July 2003, p. A23.
32. David E. Sanger, 'U.S. Criticizes North Korea for Rejecting Inspections', New York Times, 5 December 2002, p. A23.
33. Howard W. French with David E. Sanger, 'North Korea to Reactivate an Idled Nuclear Reactor', New York Times, 13 December 2002, p. A26. Pyongyang claimed they were reactivating the nuclear reactor to make up for lost energy from the Korean Peninsula Energy Development Organization's fuel-oil cutoff, but the 5-megawatt reactor was not connected to the North Korean power grid.
34. David E. Sanger, 'U.S. Eases Threat on Nuclear Arms for North Korea', New York Times, 30 December 2002, p. A1.
35. Peter S. Goodman, 'North Korean Official Threatens "Fight to the End" With U.S.', Washington Post, 25 December 2002, p. A20.
36. David E. Sanger, 'Next Question: How to Stop Nuclear Blackmail', New York Times, 9 March 2003, p. A1.
37. Thom Shanker and David E. Sanger, 'U.S. Bombers on Alert to Deploy As Warning to the the North Koreans', New York Times, 4 February 2003.
38. Thom Shanker, 'Lessons from Iraq Include How to Scare North Korean Leader', New York Times, 12 May 2003, p. A17.
39. David E. Sanger, 'Bush Shifts Focus to Nuclear Sales by North Korea', New York Times, 5 May 2003, p. A1.
40. Ibid.
41. David E. Sanger, 'U.S. in Warning to North Korea on Nuclear Test', New York Times, 16 May 2005, p. A1.
42. Mitchell Reiss, 'Prospects for Nuclear Proliferation in Asia', in Ashley J. Tellis and Michael Wills, Strategic Asia 2005-06: Military Modernization in an Era of Uncertainty (Seattle, WA: National Bureau of Asian Research, September 2005), p. 351, available at http://www.nbr.org/publications/strategic_asia/pdf/SA05Reiss.pdf.
43. Cited in Bradley Martin, Under the Loving Care of the Fatherly Leader: North Korea and the Kim Dynasty (New York: St. Martin's Press, 2004), p. 676.
44. For an outstanding discussion of nuclear hedging see Ariel Levite, 'Never Say Never Again: Nuclear Reversal Revisited', International Security, vol. 27, no. 3, Winter 2002-03, pp. 59-88.
45. Director of National Intelligence John D. Negroponte to the Senate Armed Services Committee, 'Annual Threat Assessment of the Director of National Intelligence for the Senate Armed Services Committee', 28 February 2006, http://www.dni.gov/testimonies/20060228_testimony.htm.
46. Shahram Chubin, Iran's Nuclear Ambitions (Washington DC: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, 2006).
47. Peter Baker and Dafna Linzer, 'Diving Deep, Unearthing a Surprise', Washington Post, 8 December 2007, p. A9.
48. National Intelligence Council, 'Key Judgments from the National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq's Continuing Programs for Weapons of Mass Destruction', October 2002, http://www.fas.org/irp/cia/prduct/ iraq-wmd.html.
49. Condoleezza Rice, 'Promoting the National Interest', Foreign Affairs vol. 79, no. 1, January-February 2000, pp. 60-61.