When can we expect the unexpected? Predicting educational attainment when it differs from previous expectations

Journal of Social Issues

Volumn 64, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 195-212

  Messersmith, Emily E ^a   Schulenberg, John E ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF NORTH CAROLINA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACADEMIC PERFORMANCE; CURRICULUM; EDUCATIONAL ATTAINMENT; EDUCATIONAL DEVELOPMENT; LOGISTICS; PREDICTION; REGRESSION ANALYSIS; SECONDARY EDUCATION;

NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 39049106670     PISSN: 00224537     EISSN: 15404560     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1540-4560.2008.00555.x     Document Type: Article

References (22)

1. Bachman, J. G., O'Malley, P. M., Schulenberg, J. E., Johnston, L. D., Bryant, A. L., & Merline, A. C. (2002). The decline of substance use in young adulthood: Changes in social activities, roles, and beliefs. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum.
2. Bachman, J. G., O'Malley, P. M., Schulenberg, J. E., Johnston, L. D., Freedman-Doan, P., & Messersmith, E. E. (2008). The education-drug use connection: How successes and failures in school relate to adolescent smoking, drinking, drug use, and delinquency. New York: Erlbaum/Taylor & Francis.
3. Baker, T. L., & Velez, W. (1996). Access to and opportunity in postsecondary education in the United States: A review. Sociology of Education, 69, 82-101.
4. Bryant, A. L., Schulenberg, J. E., O'Malley, P. M., Bachman, J. G., & Johnston, L. D. (2003). How academic achievement, attitudes, and behaviors relate to the course of substance use during adolescence: A 6-year multiwave national longitudinal study. Journal of Research on Adolescence, 13, 361-397.
5. Cook, T. D., Church, M. B., Ajanaku, S., Shadish, W. R., Jr., Kim, J.-R., & Cohen, R. (1996). The development of occupational aspirations and expectations among inner-city boys. Child Development, 67, 3368-3385.
6. Donovan, J. E., Jessor, R., & Costa, F. M. (1988). Syndrome of problem behavior in adolescence: A replication. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 56, 762-765.
7. Eccles, J. S., Adler, T. F., Futterman, R., Goff, S. B., Kaczala, C. M., Meece, J. L., et al. (1983). Expectations, values, and academic behaviors. In J. T. Spence (Ed.), Achievement and achievement motivation (pp. 75-146). San Francisco: Freeman.
8. Feinstein, L., & Peck, S. C. (2008). Unexpected education pathways: Why do some students not succeed in school and what helps others beat the odds? Journal of Social Issues, 64, 1-20.
9. Hanson, S. L. (1994). Lost talent: Unrealized educational aspirations and expectations among U.S. youths. Sociology of Education, 67, 159-183.
10. Horn, L., Cataldi, E. F., & Sikora, A. (2005). Waiting to attend college: Undergraduates who delay their postsecondary enrollment (NCES 2005-152). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
11. Jessor, R., Turbin, M. S., & Costa, F. M. (1998). Protective factors in adolescent health behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 75, 788-800.
12. Kokko, K., Pulkkinen, L., Mesiäinen, P., & Lyyra, A.-L. (2008). Trajectories based on post-comprehensive and higher education: Correlates and antecedents of timing of education. Journal of Social Issues, 64, 59-76.
13. Morgan, S. L. (2004). Methodologist as arbitrator: Five models for Black-White differences in the causal effect of expectations on attainment. Sociological Methods and Research, 33, 43-53.
14. Nurmi, J.-E., & Salmelo-Aro, K. (2002). Goal construction, reconstruction and depressive symptoms in a life-span context: The transition from school to work. Journal of Personality, 70, 385-420.
15. Pagani, L. S., Japel, C., Vitaro, F., Tremblay, R. E., Larose, S., & McDuff, P. (2008). When predictions fail: The case of unexpected pathways toward high school graduation. Journal of Social Issues, 64, 175-193.
16. Peter, K., & Horn, L. (2005). Gender differences in participation and completion of undergraduate education and how they have changed over time. (NCES 2005-169). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
17. Rosenbaum, J. E. (1998). College-for-all: Do students understand what college demands? Social Psychology of Education, 2, 55-80.
18. Schulenberg, J. E., Wadsworth, K. N., O'Malley, P. M., Bachman, J. G., & Johnston, L. D. (1996). Adolescent risk factors for binge drinking during the transition to young adulthood: Variable- and pattern-centered approaches to change. Developmental Psychology, 32, 659-674.
19. Schulenberg, J. E., & Zarrett, N. R. (2006). Mental health during emerging adulthood: Continuity and discontinuity in courses, causes, and functions. In J. J. Arnett & J. L. Tanner (Eds.), Emerging adults in America: Coming of age in the 21st century (pp. 135-172). Washington, DC: American Psychological Association.
20. Solorzano, D. G., & Ornelas, A. (2004). A critical race analysis of Latina/o and African American advanced placement enrollment in public high schools. The High School Journal, 87, 15-26.
21. Trusty, J. (2000). High educational expectations and low achievement: Stability of educational goals across adolescence. Journal of Educational Research, 93, 356-365.
22. U.S. Department of Education. National Center for Education Statistics. (2002). The condition of education 2002 (NCES 2002-025). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.