Risk perception and Bayesian analysis of international construction contract risks: The case of payment delays in a developing economy

International Journal of Project Management

Volumn 26, Issue 2, 2008, Pages 138-148

  Adams, Francis K ^a  

^a DREXEL UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian analysis; Elicitation; International contracts; Risk analysis; Subjective probabilities

Indexed keywords

CONTRACTS; INDUSTRIAL MANAGEMENT; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PROJECT MANAGEMENT; RISK PERCEPTION; SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CONSTRUCTION CONTRACTS; DEVELOPING ECONOMY; INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION;

CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY;

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS; CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY; CONTINGENT VALUATION; DEVELOPING WORLD; MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ANALYSIS; PROJECT DESIGN; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK PERCEPTION;

AFRICA; GHANA; SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA; WEST AFRICA;

EID: 38849086165     PISSN: 02637863     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijproman.2007.05.007     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. Pouliquen L.Y. Risk analysis in project appraisal (1970), The John Hopkins Press, Baltimore
2. Bjornsson H.C. Risk analysis of construction cost estimates. Trans Am Assoc Cost Engrs (1977) 182-189
3. Perry J.G., and Hayes R.W. Construction projects - know the risks. CME (1985) 42-45
4. Cooper D.F., and Chapman C.B. Risk analysis for large engineering projects: models, methods and cases (1987), John Wiley & Sons, Chichester
5. Ranasinghe KAMK. Analytical method for quantification of economic risks during feasibility analysis for large engineering projects. PhD thesis, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, Canada, 1990.
6. Murphy A.H., and Winkler R.L. Probability forecasting in meteorology. J Amer Statist Assoc 79 387 (1984) 489-500
7. Spiegelhalter D.J., Harris N.L., Bull K., and Franklin R.C.G. Empirical evaluation of prior beliefs about frequencies: methodology and a case study in congenital heart disease. J Am Statist Assoc 79 387 (1994) 489-500
8. Kadane J.B., and Wolfson L.J. Experiences in elicitation. The Statistician 46 4 (1997) 1-17
9. O'Hagan A. Eliciting expert beliefs in substantial practical applications. The Statistician 47 1 (1997) 21-35
10. O'Hagan A, Haylock RG. Bayesian uncertainty analysis and radiological protection. In: Barnett V, Turkman KF, editors. Statistics for the environment, vol. 3. Pollution Assessment and Control, Chichester, UK, 1997. p. 109-28.
11. Tversky A. Assessing uncertainty. J Roy Statist Soc Ser B 36 2 (1974) 148-159
12. Adams FK. The management of risks in international infrastructural projects. PhD thesis, The University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom, 2004.
13. Adams F.K. Eliciting expert beliefs for the Bayesian analysis of contract risks: an investigation. Construct Manage Econom 24 1 (2006) 81-96
14. Cullivan D.E. How much will it cost?. Consult Engineer February (1981) 13
15. Li J., and Karakowsky L. Do we see eye to eye? Implications of cultural differences for cross-cultural management research and practice. J Psychol 135 5 (2001) 501-517
16. Tversky A., and Kahneman D. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases. Science 185 (1974) 1124-1131
17. Chesley G.R. Elicitation of subjective probabilities: a review. The Accounting Review L (1975) 323-337
18. Spetzler C., and Staël Von Holstein C.A.S. Probability encoding in decision analysis. Manage Sci 22 3 (1975) 340-358
19. Kahneman D., Slovic P., and Tversky A. Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases (1982), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
20. Hertz D.B., and Thomas H. Practical risk analysis: an approach through case histories (1984), John Wiley & Sons, Chichester
21. Chapman C., and Ward S. Project risk management: processes, techniques and insights. 2nd ed. (2003), John Wiley & Sons, Chichester
22. Vick S. Degrees of belief - subjective probability and engineering judgement (2002), ASCE Press, Virginia
23. Moore P.G., and Thomas H. Anatomy of decisions (1976), Penguin Books, London
24. Budescu D.V., and Wallsten T.S. Subjective estimation of precise and vague uncertainties. In: Wright G., and Ayton P. (Eds). Judgmental forecasting (1987), John Wiley & Sons, New York 63-82
25. Ranasinghe M., and Russell A.D. Elicitation of subjective probabilities for economic risk analysis: an investigation. Construct Manage Econom 11 5 (1993) 326-340
26. Yin R.K. Case study research: design and methods. 2nd ed. (1994), Sage Publications, London
27. Simonton D. Creative expertise: a lifespan developmental perspective. In: Ericsson K. (Ed). The road to excellence: the acquisition of expert performance in the arts and sciences, sports and games (1996), Erlbaum, Mahwah, NJ 227-253
28. Ashton H.A., and Ashton R.H. Aggregating subjective forecasts: some empirical results. Manage Sci 31 12 (1985) 1499-1508
29. Slovic P, Fischoff B, Lichtenstein S. Facts and fears: understanding perceived risk. In: Schwing RC, Albers Jnr WA, editors. Societal risk assessment: how safe is safe enough? New York, 1980. p. 181-214.
30. Hayes R., Perry J., Thompson P., and Willmer G. Risk management in engineering construction (1987), SERC, London
31. Mok C.K., Tummala V.M.R., and Leung H.M. Practices, barriers and benefits of risk management process in building services cost estimation. Construct Manage Econom 15 2 (1997) 161-175