Modelling of hydrology and potential population levels at Bronze Age Jawa, Northern Jordan: a Monte Carlo approach to cope with uncertainty

Journal of Archaeological Science

Volumn 35, Issue 3, 2008, Pages 517-529

  Whitehead, P G ^a   Smith, S J ^a   Wade, A J ^a   Mithen, S J ^a   Finlayson, B L ^b   Sellwood, B ^a   Valdes, P J ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

^b British Institute in Amman   (Jordan)

^c UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Bronze Age; Hydrology; Jawa; Modelling; Monte Carlo; Population; Water resources

Indexed keywords

ARCHAEOLOGY; BRONZE AGE; HYDROLOGICAL MODELING; MONTE CARLO ANALYSIS; PALEOCLIMATE; POPULATION MODELING; PROXY CLIMATE RECORD; UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS; WATER BUDGET; WATER DEMAND; WATER MANAGEMENT; WATER RESOURCE; WATER SUPPLY;

ASIA; EURASIA; GREATER SUNDA ISLANDS; JAVA; JORDAN; MALAY ARCHIPELAGO; MIDDLE EAST; SOUTHEAST ASIA; SUNDA ISLES;

ANIMALIA;

EID: 38549146972     PISSN: 03054403     EISSN: 10959238     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jas.2007.05.001     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. Allen J.A. The Middle East Water Question: Hydropolitics and the Global Economy (2001), Tauris, London
2. Bar-Matthews M., Ayalon A., Gilmour M., Matthews A., and Hawkesworth C.J. Sea-land oxygen isotopic relationships from planktonic foraminifera and speleothems in the Eastern Mediterranean region and their implication for paleorainfall during interglacial intervals. Geochimica et Cosmochimica Acta 67 17 (2003) 3181-3199
3. In: Betts A.V.G. (Ed). Excavations at Jawa 1972-1986. Stratigraphy, Pottery and Other Finds (1991), Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh
4. Betts A.V.G. The chipped stone assemblage. In: Betts A.V.G. (Ed). Excavations at Jawa 1972-1986. Stratigraphy, Pottery and other finds (1991), Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh 140-144
5. Betts A.V.G. Appendix A: The Jawa area in Prehistory. In: Betts A.V.G. (Ed). Excavations at Jawa 1972-1986. Stratigraphy, Pottery and other finds (1991), Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh 181-190
6. Betts A.V.G. Tell el-Hibr: A rock shelter occupation of the fourth millennium B.C.E. in the Jordanian Badiya. Bulletin of the American Schools of Oriental Research 287 (1992) 5-23
7. Betts A., Helms S., Lancater W., and Lancaster F. The Burqu/Ruweishid project: preliminary report on the 1989 field season. Levant 23 (1991) 7-28
8. Betts A., Eames S., Hulka S., Schroder M., Rust J., and McLaren B. Studies of Bronze Age occupation in the Wadi al-'Ajib, Southern Hauran. Levant 28 (1996) 27-39
9. Biswas A.K. History of Hydrology (1970), American-Elsevier, Amsterdam, New York 251 pp.
10. Braemer F., and Echallier J.C. A Summary Statement on the EBA ceramics from southern Syria and the relationship of this material with that of neighbouring regions. In: Philip G., and Baird D. (Eds). Ceramics and Change in the Early Bronze Age of the Southern Levant (2000), Sheffield Academic Press, Sheffield 403-410
11. Braemer F., Echallier J.C., and Taraqji A. Khirbet al Umbashi. Villages et campments de pasteurs dans le "desert noir"(Syrie) à l'âge du Bronze (2004), Institut Français du Proche-Orient, Beyrouth
12. Chesson M., and Philip G. Tales of the city? "Urbanism" in the Early Bronze Age Levant from Mediterranean and Levantine perspectives. Journal of Mediterranean Archaeology 16 1 (2003) 3-16
13. Clarke R.T. Statistical Modelling in Hydrology (1994), Wiley, Chichester 412 pp.
14. Decisioneering. The Crystal Ball Simulation package (2006), Decisioneering, New York
15. Douglas K., and Kafafi Z. The main aspects of the early Bronze I pottery from Jebel Abu Thawwab, North Jordan. In: Philip G., and Baird D. (Eds). Ceramics and Change in the Early Bronze Age of the Southern Levant (2000), Sheffield Academic Press, Sheffield 101-112
16. Evenari M., Shanan L., and Tadmor N. The Negev, Challenge of a Desert (1971), Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA
17. Frumkin A., Kadan G., Enzel Y., and Eyal Y. Radiocarbon chronology of the Holocene Dead Sea: attempting a regional correlation. Radiocarbon 43 3 (2001) 1179-1189
18. 13C of land snail shell organic matter. Nature 333 (1988) 757-760
19. Hanbury-Tenison J.W. Desert urbanism in the fourth millennium. Palestine Exploration Quarterly (1989) 55-63
20. Hassan F.A. Demographic archaeology. In: Schiffer M.B. (Ed). Advances in Archaeological Method and Theory vol. 1 (1978) 49-103
21. Haywood A.M., Valdes P.J., Sellwood B.W., and Kaplan J.O. Antarctic climate during the middle Pliocene: model sensitivity to ice sheet variation. Palaeogeography, Palaeoclimatology. Palaeoecology 182 (2002) 93-115
22. Helms S.W. Jawa: Lost City of the Black Desert (1981), Cornell University Press, New York
23. Helms S.W. Jawa, Tell Um Hammad and the EB 1/Late Chalcolithic Landscape. Levant 29 (1987) 49-81
24. Helms S.W. Jawa at the beginning of the Middle Bronze Age. Levant 21 (1989) 141-168
25. Helms S.W. Introduction. In: Betts A.V.G. (Ed). Excavations at Jawa 1972-1986. Stratigraphy, Pottery and Other Finds (1991), Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh 6-19
26. Helms S.W. The pottery. In: Betts A.V.G. (Ed). Excavations at Jawa 1972-1986. Stratigraphy, Pottery and Other Finds (1991), Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh 55-105
27. Helms S.W. The "Zarqa Triangle": A Preliminary Appraisal of Protohistorical Settlement Patterns and Demographic Episodes (1992), SHAJ IV, Amman
28. Helms S.W., and Betts A.V.G. Desert kites of the Badiyat esh-Sham and North Arabia. Paléorient 13 1 (1987) 41-67
29. Jakeman A.J., Littlewood I.C., and Whitehead P.G. Computation of the Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph and identifiable component flows with application to two upland catchments. Journal of Hydrology 117 (1990) 275-300
30. Kendal, M.G., Stuart, A. 1964. Advanced Theory of Statistics. Griffin.
31. Köhler I. Appendix E. animal remains. In: Helms S.W. (Ed). Jawa: Lost City of the Black Desert (1981), Cornell University Press, New York 249-252
32. Lancaster W., and Lancaster F. Limitations on sheep and goat herding in the eastern Badia of Jordan: An ethno-archaeological enquiry. Levant 28 (1991) 125-138
33. McClellan T.L., and Porter A. Jawa and North Syria (1995), SHAJ V, Amman
34. Philip G. Jawa and Tell Um Hammad: Two Early Bronze Age sites in Jordan: Review article. Palestine Exploration Quarterly 127 (1995) 161-170
35. Philip G. The Early Bronze I-III Ages. In: MacDonald B., et al. (Ed). The Archaeology of Jordan (2001), Sheffield Academic Press, Sheffield 163-232
36. Pope V.D., Gallani M.L., Rowntree P.R., and Stratton R.A. The impact of new physical parameterizations in the Hadley Centre climate model: HadAM3. Climate Dynamics 16 (2000) 123-146
37. Roberts N. Water conservation in ancient Arabia. Seminar for Arabian Studies 7 (1977) 134-146
38. Robinson S.A., Black S., Sellwood B.W., and Valdes P.J. A review of palaeoclimates in the Levant and Eastern Mediterranean from 25,000 to 5,000 BP: Setting the environmental and background for the evolution of human civilisation. Quaternary Science Reviews 25 13-14 (2006) 1517-1541
39. Rosen A. The social response to environmental change in Early Bronze Age Canaan. Journal of Anthropological Archaeology 14 (1995) 26-44
40. Sellwood B.W., and Valdes P.J. Mesozoic climates: general circulation models and the rock record. Sedimentary Geology 190 (2006) 269-287
41. Semmens D.J., Goodrich D.C., Unkrich C.L., Smith R.E., Woolhiser D.A., and Miller S.N. KINEROS 2 and the AGWA modelling framework. Proceedings of the International G-WADI Modelling Workshops (2005). www.Gwadi.org
42. Shaw J., and Sutcliffe J. Ancient irrigation works in the Sanchi area: an archaeological and hydrological investigation. South Asian Studies 17 (2001) 55-75
43. Tanaka J. Subsistence ecology of the central Kalahari San. In: Lee R., and DeVore I. (Eds). Kalahari Hunter-Gatherers. Studies of the !Kung San and Their Neighbours (1976), Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA 98-119
44. Tivy J. Agricultural Ecology (1990), Longman, London
45. Unger-Hamilton R. The microwear analysis of scrapers and "sickle blades". In: Betts A.V.G. (Ed). Excavations at Jawa 1972-1986. Stratigraphy, Pottery and Other Finds (1991), Edinburgh University Press, Edinburgh 149-154
46. Valdes P.J., Spicer R.A., Sellwood B.W., and Palmer D.C. Understanding Past Climates: Modelling Ancient Weather (1999), CD-ROM, Routledge
47. Weiss H., and Bradley R.S. What drives societal collapse. Science 291 (2001) 609-610
48. In: West J.B. (Ed). Best And Taylor's Physiological Basis of Medical Practice. 11th ed. (1985), Williams and Wilkins, Baltimore
49. Wheater H.S. Modelling hydrological processes in arid and semi-arid areas. Proceedings of the International G-WADI Modelling Workshops (2005). www.Gwadi.org
50. Whitehead P.G., and Young P.C. Water quality in river systems: Monte Carlo analysis. Water Resources Research 15 2 (1979) 451-459
51. Wilcox G.H. Appendix D. plant remains. In: Helms S.W. (Ed). Jawa: Lost City of the Black Desert (1981), Cornell University Press, New York 247-248
52. Wilkinson J. Ancient Jerusalem its water supply and population. Palestine Exploration Quarterly 106 (1974) 33-51
53. Woolhiser D.A., Smith R.E., and Goodrich D.C. KINEROS. A Kinematic Runoff and Erosion Model: Documentation and User Manual (1990), U.S. Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service ARS-77, 130 pp.
54. Young P.C. Real time flow forecasting. Proceedings of the International G-WADI Modelling Workshop (2005). www.Gwadi.org
55. Zorn J.R. Estimating the population size of ancient settlements: methods, problems, solutions and a case study. Bulletin of the American Schools of Oriental Research 295 (1994) 31-48