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1
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37849041821
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The original presentation of the model can be found in William G. Mayer, Forecasting Presidential Nominations, in In Pursuit of the White House: How We Choose Our Presidential Nominees, ed. William G. Mayer (Chatham, N.J.: Chatham House, 1996), 44-71.
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The original presentation of the model can be found in William G. Mayer, "Forecasting Presidential Nominations," in In Pursuit of the White House: How We Choose Our Presidential Nominees, ed. William G. Mayer (Chatham, N.J.: Chatham House, 1996), 44-71.
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2
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85045166279
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The Basic Dynamics of the Contemporary Nomination Process: An Expanded View
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For an update and extension of the model, see, ed. William G. Mayer Lanham, Md, Rowman & Littlefield
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For an update and extension of the model, see Mayer, "The Basic Dynamics of the Contemporary Nomination Process: An Expanded View," in The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2004, ed. William G. Mayer (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 2004), 83-132.
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(2004)
The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2004
, pp. 83-132
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Mayer1
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3
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37849024463
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I use Gallup data both because of that organization's general record of care and accuracy in conducting its surveys and because, in most years, they are the only such data available.
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I use Gallup data both because of that organization's general record of care and accuracy in conducting its surveys and because, in most years, they are the only such data available.
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4
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0037660208
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Forecasting Presidential Nominations or, My Model Worked Just Fine, Thank You
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See, April
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See William G. Mayer, "Forecasting Presidential Nominations or, My Model Worked Just Fine, Thank You," PS: Political Science and Politics 36 (April 2003): 153-57.
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(2003)
PS: Political Science and Politics
, vol.36
, pp. 153-157
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Mayer, W.G.1
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5
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37849006299
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One assumption 1 make throughout the following analysis is that the Democratic primary electorate consists largely of self-identified Democrats and that Republican primaries are dominated by Republican identifiers. For proof of this point, see William G. Mayer, Voting in Presidential Primaries: What We Can Learn from Three Decades of Exit Polling, in The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2008, ed. William G. Mayer (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 2008), 169-202.
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One assumption 1 make throughout the following analysis is that the Democratic primary electorate consists largely of self-identified Democrats and that Republican primaries are dominated by Republican identifiers. For proof of this point, see William G. Mayer, "Voting in Presidential Primaries: What We Can Learn from Three Decades of Exit Polling," in The Making of the Presidential Candidates 2008, ed. William G. Mayer (Lanham, Md.: Rowman & Littlefield, 2008), 169-202.
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