Industry output and employment projections to 2016

Monthly Labor Review

Volumn 130, Issue 11, 2007, Pages 53-85

  Figueroa, Eric B ^a   Woods, Rose A ^a  

^a BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

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EID: 37249081167     PISSN: 00981818     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: None     Document Type: Article

References (19)

1. Total employment is a summation of nonagricultural wage and salary workers from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey combined with self-employed workers; unpaid family workers; and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting workers from the BLS Current Population Survey (CPS).
2. Nonagricultural wage and salary employment includes data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except private households; data on private households are from the Current Population Survey. Logging workers are excluded.
3. This article uses the gross duplicated output concept. Gross duplicated output measures not only GDP, or all final demand purchases of new goods and services, but also all new goods and services produced as intermediate goods for use in further production. Real output is measured as a 2000-based, chain-weighted, Fisher index and is used for historical rate of growth comparisons. Real output for individual industries does not sum to higher level industry aggregates because of chain weighting. For more information, see Charles Steindel, "Chain-weighting: The New Approach to Measuring GDP," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, (Federal Reserve Board of New York, December 1995).
4. Because they provide a more accurate measure of the relative importance of aggregated sectors of the economy, current-dollars estimates were used in lieu of chain-weighted measures. See J. Steven Landefeld, Brent R. Moulton, and Cindy M. Vojtech, Chained-Dollar Indexes: Issues, Tips on Their Use, and Upcoming Changes," Survey of Current Business (Bureau of Economic Analysis, November 2003), pp. 8-16.
5. This set of BLS projections is based on the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). Within this article, sectors generally refer to 2-digit NAICS categories, subsectors refer to 3-digit NAICS categories, and industries refer to either 2-,3-, or 4-digit NAICS categories.
6. William Aspray, Frank Mayadas, and Moshe Y. Vardi, Globalization and Offshoring of Software: A report of the ACM Job Migration Task Force (New York, Association for Computing Machinery, 2006); on the Internet at http://www.acm.org/globalizationreport/pdf/full-final.pdf (visited Nov. 30, 2007).
7. For a further discussion of population and labor force projections, see Mitra Toossi, "Labor force projections to 2016," this issue, pp. 33-52.
8. Kara Olsen, "Outpatient outlook," Health Care Strategic Management, March 2007, p. 7.
9. Based on a comparison of 2000 and 2006 population data from the Bureau of the Census Web site. Data on the U.S. population are available at http://www.census.gov/popest/national/
10. data on one-parent family groups are available at http://www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam.html (visited Nov. 30,2007).
11. See William Aspray and others, Globalization and Offshoring of Software.
12. For additional information see, Tabitha M. Bailey and William J. Hussar, "Projections of Education Statistics to 2015" (National Center for Education Statistics, September 2006).
13. For a further discussion of personal consumption projections, see Betty Su, "The US. economy to 2016," this issue, pp. 13-32.
14. Authors' calculations using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Population Survey (CPS). For more information on this survey, visit the CPS page of the BLS Web site at http://www.bls.gov/cps/ home.htm#overview.
15. For a further discussion of defense spending projections, see Betty Su, "The U.S. economy to 2016," this issue, pp. 13-32.
16. See Bailey and Hussar, "Projections of Education Statistics to 2015."
17. USDA Agricultural Projections to 2016, Long-term Projections Report OCE-2007-1 (U.S. Department of Agriculture, World Agricultural Outlook Board, February 2007).
18. For a further discussion of macroeconomic projections, see Betty Su, "The U.S. economy to 2016," this issue, pp. 13-32.
19. Note that output comparisons with other industries are problematic, because changes in price measures for this industry - which are used to capture the pace of technological change - are so rapid. The price measures used for computer and peripheral equipment are designed to capture technological change and to facilitate historical output comparisons within the industry. Reflecting this industry's rapid pace of technological change, strong price declines relative to other industries translate into very large real output changes. Therefore, output comparisons between this and other industries are problematic. This phenomenon is expected to persist over the projected period due to the assumption that strong technological growth will continue and thereby cause similar price declines relative to other products. For an explanation of the computer and peripheral equipment price deflator, see Allan H. Young, "BEA~s Measurement of Computer Output," Survey of Current Business (Bureau of Economic Analysis, July 1998), pp. 108-115.