Complementary approach of data analysis and modeling to estimate the pattern of the BSE epidemic: The example of France

Risk Analysis

Volumn 27, Issue 5, 2007, Pages 1141-1150

  Calavas, Didier ^a   Supervie, V ^b,c   Morignat, E ^a   Costagliola, D ^b,c   Ducrot, C ^d  

^a Healthy Pigs Production and Experimentation Section   (France)

^b INSERM   (France)

^c SORBONNE UNIVERSITÉ   (France)

^d CEMAGREF   (France)

Author keywords

Bovine spongiform encephalopathy; Epidemiology; France; Modeling

Indexed keywords

CONTROL SYSTEMS; DATA REDUCTION; FRANCE; LOGISTICS; MEATS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

BOVINE SPONGIFORM ENCEPHALOPATHY (BSE); CLINICAL SURVEILLANCE;

EPIDEMIOLOGY;

BOVINE SPONGIFORM ENCEPHALOPATHY; CATTLE; COHORT ANALYSIS; COMPLEMENTARITY; DETECTION METHOD; EPIDEMIOLOGY; MEAT; MODELING; RISK ASSESSMENT;

AGE DISTRIBUTION; ARTICLE; BOVINE SPONGIFORM ENCEPHALOPATHY; CATTLE; DATA ANALYSIS; EPIDEMIC; FRANCE; INCUBATION TIME; LOGISTIC REGRESSION ANALYSIS; NONHUMAN; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; STATISTICAL MODEL;

AGE FACTORS; ANIMAL FEED; ANIMALS; CATTLE; DATA INTERPRETATION, STATISTICAL; DISEASE OUTBREAKS; ENCEPHALOPATHY, BOVINE SPONGIFORM; FOOD CONTAMINATION; FRANCE; HUMANS; LOGISTIC MODELS; LONGITUDINAL STUDIES; MEAT; MODELS, STATISTICAL; RETROSPECTIVE STUDIES; RISK ASSESSMENT;

EURASIA; EUROPE; FRANCE; WESTERN EUROPE;

BOS; BOVINAE;

EID: 36849092487     PISSN: 02724332     EISSN: 15396924     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2007.00950.x     Document Type: Article

References (33)

1. Anderson, R. M., Donnelly, C. A., Ferguson, N. M., Woolhouse, M. E. J., Watt, C. J., Udy, H. J., MaWhinney, S., Dunstan, S. P., Southwood, T. R. E., Wilesmith, J. W., Ryan, J. B. M., Hoinville, L. J., Hillerton, J. E., Austin, A. R., & Wells, G. A. H. (1996). Transmission dynamics and epidemiology of BSE in British cattle. Nature, 382, 779 788.
2. Collinge, J., & Rossor, M. (1996). A new variant of prion disease. Lancet, 347, 916 917.
3. Hill, A., Desbruslais, M., Joiner, S., Sidle, K. C. L., Gowland, I., & Collinge, J. (1997). The same prion strain causes vCJD and BSE. Nature, 389, 448 450.
4. Wilesmith, J. W., Ryan, J. B. M., & Atkinson, M. J. (1991). Bovine spongiform encephalopathy: Epidemiological studies on the origin. Veterinary Record, 128, 199 203.
5. Cuenot, M., Calavas, D., Abrial, D., Gasqui, P., Cazeau, G., & Ducrot, C. (2003). Temporal and spatial patterns of the clinical surveillance of BSE in France analysed from January 1991 to May 2002 through a vigilance index. Veterinary Research, 34, 261 272.
6. Cazeau, G., Ducrot, C., Morignat, E., Lauvergne, N., Philippe, S., Cohen, C., & Calavas, D. (2002). Surveillance clinique de l'ESB en France Etude quantitative des caractéristiques des animaux et des signes cliniques observés en cas de suspicion. Revue de Médecine Vétérinaire, 153, 785 794.
7. Madec, J.-Y., Belli, P., Calavas, D., & Baron, T. (2000). Efficiency of Western blotting for the specific immunodetection of proteinase K-resistant prion protein in BSE diagnosis in France. Veterinary Record, 146, 74 76.
8. Debeer, S. O. S., Baron, T., & Bencsik, A. A. (2001). Immunohistochemistry of PrPsc within bovine spongiform encephalopathy brain samples with graded autolysis. Journal of Histochemistry and Cytochemistry, 49, 1519 1524.
9. Supervie, V., & Costagliola, D. (2004). The unrecognised French BSE epidemic. Veterinary Research, 35, 349 362.
10. Supervie, V., & Costagliola, D. (2005). How was the French BSE epidemic underestimated? Comptes Rendus Biologies, 329, 106 116.
11. Brookmeyer, R., & Gail, M. H. (1986). Minimum size of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) epidemic in the United States. Lancet, 2, 1320 1322.
12. Brookmeyer, R., & Gail, M. H. (1988). A method for obtaining short-term projections and lower bounds on the size of the AIDS epidemic. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 83, 301 308.
13. Morignat, E., Ducrot, C., Roy, P., Baron, T., Vinard, J.-L., Biacabe, A. G., Madec, J.-Y., Bencsik, A., Debeer, S., Eliazsewicz, M., & Calavas, D. (2002). Targeted surveillance to assess the prevalence of BSE in high-risk populations in western France and the associated risk factors. Veterinary Record, 151, 73 77.
14. Silverman, B. W., Jones, M. C., Wilson, J. D., & Nychka, D. W. (1990). A smoothed EM approach to indirect estimation problem, with particular reference to stereology and emission tomography. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 52, 271 324.
15. Burnham, K., & Anderson, D. (1998). Model Selection and Inference: A Practical Information-Theoretic Approach. New York : Springer-Verlag.
16. Ferguson, N. M., Donnelly, C. A., Woolhouse, M. E., & Anderson, R. M. (1997). The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. II. Model construction and analysis of transmission dynamics. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London, Series B, 352, 803 838.
17. Arnold, M. E., & Wilesmith, J. W. (2004). Estimation of the age-dependent risk of infection to BSE of dairy cattle in Great Britain. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 66, 35 47.
18. St. Rose, S. G., Hunter, N., Matthews, L., Foster, J. D., Chase-Topping, M. E., Kruuk, L. E., Shaw, D. J., Rhind, S. M., Will, R. G., & Woolhouse, M. E. (2006). Comparative evidence for a link between Peyer's patch development and susceptibility to transmissible spongiform encephalopathies. BMC Infectious Disease, 6, 5.
19. Supervie, V., & Costagliola, D. (2005). Modelling of the French BSE epidemic: Use of the screening test data. In A. R. Francis, K. M. Matawie, A. Oshlack, & G. K. Smyth (Eds 20th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling, Statistical Solutions to Modern Problems (pp. 453 460). Sydney : July 10-15.
20. Ferguson, N. M., & Donnelly, C. A. (2003). Assessment of the risk posed by bovine spongiform encephalopathy in cattle in Great Britain and the impact of potential changes to current control measures. Proceeding of the Royal Society of London, Series B, Biological Science, 270, 1579 1584.
21. Office International des Epizooties 2004). Terrestrial Animal Health Code 2004. Available at http://www.oie.int/eng/normes/mcode/en_chapitre_3.8.4.htm, accessed on September, 1 2006.
22. Morignat, E., Ducrot, C., Roy, P., Cohen, C., & Calavas, D. (2004). Prevalence of BSE in cattle found dead euthanased or emergency slaughtered on farms in western France in 2000-2001 and 2002. Veterinary Record, 155, 481 486.
23. Ducrot, C., Roy, P., Morignat, E., Baron, T., & Calavas, D. (2003). How the surveillance system may bias the results of analytical epidemiological studies on BSE: Prevalence among dairy versus beef suckler cattle breeds in France. Veterinary Research, 34, 185 192.
24. La Bonnardière, C., Calavas, D., Abrial, D., Morignat, E., & Ducrot, C. (2004). Estimating the trend of the French BSE epidemic over six birth cohorts through the analysis of the abattoir screening in 2001 and 2002. Veterinary Research, 35, 299 308.
25. Breslow, N. E., & Day, N. E. (1987). Statistical Methods in Cancer Research: The Design and Analysis of Cohort Studies. Lyon : International Agency for Research on Cancer, World Health Organization.
26. Doherr, M. G., Heim, D., Fatzer, R., Cohen, C. H., Vandevelde, M., & Zurbriggen, A. (2001). Targeted screening of high-risk cattle populations for BSE to augment mandatory reporting of clinical suspects. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 51, 3 16.
27. Ducrot, C., Abrial, D., Calavas, D., & Carpenter, T. (2005). A spatio-temporal analysis of BSE cases born before and after the reinforced feed ban in France. Veterinary Research, 36, 839 853.
28. Donnelly, C. A. (2000). Likely size of the French BSE epidemic. Nature, 408, 787 788.
29. AFSSA Lyon 2003). Epidémiosurveillance de l'ESB en France - Tableau de bord au 30/04/03. Available at http://www.afssa.fr/ftp/basedoc/ TBavril2003.pdf, accessed on June 1, 2003.
30. Hill, W. G. (2005). Review of the Evidence for the Occurrence of "BARB" BSE Cases in Cattle. Available at http://www.defra.gov.uk/ animalh/bse/pdf/hillreport.pdf, accessed on September, 1 2006
31. DEFRA 2005). Final Report on BSE Confirmed in an Animal Born on 3 October 2001 & Two Cohort Animals Born on 28 September 2001 & 1 May 2002 in a Pembrokeshire Herd. Available at http://www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/bse/pdf/2001- 02barb-finalreport.pdf, accessed on September 1, 2006
32. Baron, T., & Biacabe, A.-G. (2006). Origin of bovine spongiform encephalopathy. Lancet, 367, 297 298.
33. Grassi, J., Comoy, E., Simon, S., Creminon, C., Frobert, Y., Trapmann, S., Schimmel, H., Hawkins, S. A., Moynagh, J., Deslys, J.-P., & Wells, G. A. (2001). Rapid test for the preclinical post-mortem diagnosis of BSE in central nervous system tissue. Veterinary Record, 149, 577 582.