An ethical analysis of hydrometeorological prediction and decision making: The case of the 1997 Red River flood

Environmental Hazards

Volumn 7, Issue 4, 2007, Pages 342-352

  Morss, Rebecca E ^a   Wahl, Eugene ^b  

^a NATIONAL CENTER FOR ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH   (United States)

^b ALFRED UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Climate; Ethics; Floods; Prediction; Red River of the North; Weather

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; DISASTER MANAGEMENT; ETHICS; HYDROMETEOROLOGY; PREDICTION; TRADE-OFF;

NORTH AMERICA; RED RIVER [UNITED STATES]; UNITED STATES;

EID: 36549070100     PISSN: 17477891     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.envhaz.2007.09.004     Document Type: Article

References (42)

1. Beauchamp T.L., and Bowie N.E. Ethical Theory and Business. sixth ed (2001), Prentice-Hall, Inc, Upper Saddle River, NJ
2. Beauchamp T.L., and Walters L. Contemporary Issues in Bioethics. sixth ed (2003), Wadsworth-Thompson Learning, Belmont, CA
3. Benedick R.E. Ozone Diplomacy: New Directions in Safeguarding the Planet (1991), Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA
4. Bell, G. D., Halpert, M. S., 1998. Climate assessment for 1997. Supplement to Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 79 (5). [Accessed 2006]. Available from 〈http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/assessments/assess_97/rriver.html〉.
5. Bourne Jr J.K. Gone with the water. National Geographic 206 4 (2004) 88-105
6. Broad K., Pfaff A.S.P., and Glantz M.H. Effective and equitable dissemination of seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts: policy implications from the Peruvian fishery during El Nino 1997-1998. Climatic Change 54 4 (2002) 415-438
7. Burn D.H. Perceptions of flood risk: a case study of the Red River flood of 1997. Water Resources Research 35 11 (1999) 3451-3458
8. CELAM (Consejo Episcopal Latinoamericano), 2006. Medellín: Conclusiones de la II Conferencia General del Episcopado Latinoamericano. CELAM, Bogotá, Columbia.
9. Clarke L. Panic: myth or reality?. Contexts 1 3 (2002) 21-26
10. Fischer III H.W. Disaster myths and their implications for disaster planning and response. Natural Hazards Observer 31 1 (2006) 6-7
11. Freebairn J.W., and Zillman J.W. Funding meteorological services. Meteorological Applications 9 1 (2002) 45-54
12. Glantz M., and Jamieson D. Societal response to Hurricane Mitch and intra- versus intergenerational equity issues: Whose norms should apply? Risk analysis 20 6 (2000) 869-882
13. Glassheim, E., 1997. Fear and loathing in North Dakota. Natural Hazards Observer 21 (6). [Accessed 2006]. Available from 〈http://www.colorado.edu/hazards/o/archives/1997/july97/july97a.html〉.
14. Glassheim, E., ed., 1999. Voices from the Flood: An Oral History of the 1997 Flood of the Red River of the North. North Dakota Museum of Art, Grand Forks, ND.
15. Glassheim, E., Porter, K. K., Silverman, R., eds., 2002. Behind the Scenes: Leadership and Decision-making in a Natural Disaster. North Dakota Museum of Art, Grand Forks, ND.
16. Grand Forks Herald. Come Hell and High Water (1997), Grand Forks Herald, Grand Forks, ND
17. Green D.M., and Swets J.A. Signal Detection Theory and Psychophysics (1988), Peninsula Publishing, Los Altos, CA
18. Howarth R.B., and Monahan P.A. Economics, ethics, and climate policy: framing the debate. Global and Planetary Change 11 4 (1996) 187-199
19. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2007. Climate Change 2007, The Physical Scientific Basis: Summary for Policymakers. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.
20. ISDR (International Strategy for Disaster Reduction), 2004. Guidelines for Reducing Flood Losses. United Nations, Geneva, Switzerland.
21. James L.D., and Korom S.F. Lessons from Grand Forks: planning structural flood control measures. Natural Hazards Review 2 1 (2001) 22-32
22. James L.D., and Korom S.F. Lessons from Grand Forks: planning nonstructural flood control measures. Natural Hazards Review 2 4 (2001) 182-192
23. Laska S. What if Hurricane Ivan had not missed New Orleans?. Natural Hazards Observer 29 2 (2004) 5-6
24. Lemos M.C. A tale of two policies: the politics of climate forecasting and drought relief in Ceara, Brazil. Policy Sciences 36 3 (2003) 101-123
25. Lemos, M. C., and L. Dilling. 2007. Equity in forecasting climate: Can science save the poor? Science and Public Policy, accepted for publication.
26. NRC (National Research Council), 2006. Completing the Forecast: Characterizing and Communicating Uncertainty for Better Decisions Using Weather and Climate Forecasts. National Academy Press, Washington, DC.
27. NWS (National Weather Service), 1998. Service assessment and hydraulic analysis: Red River of the North 1997 floods. [Accessed 2006]. Available from 〈http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/Dis_Svy/RedR_Apr97/TOC.htm〉.
28. Pacala S.W., and Socolow R.H. Stabilization wedges: solving the climate problem for the next 50 years with current technology. Science 305 5686 (2004) 968-972
29. Pielke Jr. R.A. Who decides? Forecasts and responsibilities in the 1997 Red River flood. Applied Behavioral Science Review 7 2 (1999) 83-101
30. Pielke Jr. R.A., and Downton M.W. Precipitation and damaging floods: trends in the United States. Journal of Climate 13 20 (2000) 3625-3637
31. Pfaff A., Broad K., and Glantz M. Who benefits from climate forecasts?. Nature 397 6721 (1999) 645-646
32. Porter K.K. Uncommon Heroes: The City of Grand Forks Flood Fight, 1997 (2001), North Dakota Museum of Art, Grand Forks, ND
33. Rawls, J., 1999. A Theory of Justice. Rev. Ed., Belknap Press of Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.
34. Rothman D.S. Measuring environmental values and environmental impacts: going from the local to the global. Climatic Change 44 3 (2000) 351-376
35. Rowley R.J., Kostelnick J.C., Braaten D., Li X., and Meisel J. Risk of rising sea level to population and land area. EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union 88 9 (2007) 105-107
36. Sarewitz, D., Pielke, Jr., R. A., Byerly, R. (Eds.), 2000. Prediction: Science Decision Making and the Future of Nature, Island Press, Washington, DC.
37. Schrader-Frechette K. Risk and Rationality: Philosophical Foundations for Populist Reforms (1991), University of California Press, Berkeley, CA
38. Schrader-Frechette K. Methodological rules for four classes of scientific uncertainty. In: Lemons J. (Ed). Scientific Uncertainty and Environmental Problem Solving (1996), Blackwell Science, Cambridge, MA 12-39
39. Socolow R.H., and Pacala S.W. A plan to keep carbon in check. Scientific American 295 3 (2006) 50-57
40. Stern P.C., and Easterling W.E. Making Climate Forecasts Matter (1999), National Academy Press, Washington, DC
41. Tobin G.A. The levee love affair: a stormy relationship?. Water Resources Bulletin 31 3 (1995) 359-367
42. USACE (US Army Corps of Engineers), 1997. 1997 Flood protection work at Grand Forks, North Dakota: Chronology of related flood forecast events. US Army Corps of Engineers, St. Paul District, MN. [Accessed 2006]. Available from 〈http://www.mvp-wc.usace.army.mil/org/rrn/flood97/Chronology.html〉.