Designing action based scenarios

Futures

Volumn 40, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 25-33

  Marchais Roubelat, Anne ^a   Roubelat, Fabrice ^b  

^a University of Paris Cité   (France)

^b UNIVERSITÉ DE POITIERS   (France)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ACTION RESEARCH; FUTURE PROSPECT;

EID: 36549031629     PISSN: 00163287     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.futures.2007.06.008     Document Type: Article

References (27)

1. Kahn H., and Wiener A. The year 2000 (1967), Macmillan, New York
2. Mannermaa M. In search of an evolutionary paradigm for futures research. Futures 23 4 (1991) 349-372
3. Van der Heijden K. Can internally generated futures accelerate organizational learning?. Futures 36 2 (2004) 145-159
4. Roubelat F. Scenarios to challenge strategic paradigms: lessons from 2025. Futures 38 5 (2006) 519-527
5. Schoemaker P. Multiple scenario development: its conceptual and behavioral foundation. Strategic Management Journal 14 (1993) 193-213
6. A. Marchais-Roubelat, Theory of action, How to describe decision making processes, Cecoia IV Conference, Cachan, 6-8 September 1995 and for French readers in-depth described in De la décision à l'action. Essai de stratégie et de tactique, Economica, Paris, 2000.
7. The context of this founding foresight literature is described in E. Masini, Rethinking futures studies, Futures 38 (10) 1158-1168 and in F. Roubelat, The prospective approach: contingent and necessary evolutions, in: R. Slaughter (Ed.), The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies, DDM, Melbourne, 1996, pp. 106-119.
8. B. de Jouvenel, The art of conjecture, Basic books, New York, 1967. All Jouvenel's quotations will refer to that translation of the original L'art de la conjecture, Editions du Rocher, Monaco, 1964.
9. G. Berger, Sciences humaines et prévision, Revue des deux mondes, 1957, published in Phénoménologie du temps et prospective, PUF, Paris, pp. 218-226, 1964. Excepted when mentioned, all Berger's quotations will refer to this founding paper of the prospective approach.
10. Translated from G. Berger, L'homme et l'histoire, Paris, PUF, pp. 67-71, VIe congrès des Sociétés de Langue française, Strasbourg, 10-14 Sept. 1952, published in Phénoménologie du temps et prospective, PUF, Paris, 1964, pp. 170-174.
11. Jungermann H. Inferential processes in the construction of scenarios. Journal of Forecasting 4 4 (1985) 321-327
12. Weick K.E. The Social Psychology of Organizing. second ed. (1979), Addison Wesley, Reading, MA
13. Lesourne J. Vers un retour en grâce de la prévision et de la prospective. Revue Française de Gestion 54 (1985) 17-21
14. Y. Barel, "Prospective et analyse de systèmes, Travaux et recherches de prospective, no. 14, La documentation française, Paris. From Barel, also read The idea of reproduction, Futures 6 (2) (1974) 93-102.
15. See [4] and F. Roubelat, Scenario planning as a networking process, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 65 (1) (2000) 99-112.
16. Methodological background of action research applied to futures studies will be found in J. Ramos, Action research as foresight methodology, Journal of Futures Studies 7 (1) (2002),1-24.
17. H. Elandaloussi, M. Grenon, F. Roubelat, A. Saab, Perspectives énergétiques en Méditerranée, Conférence sur la production d'électricité dans la région méditerranéenne : perspectives et choix technologiques, Beyrouth, February, 1998.
18. F. Roubelat, Présentation des scénarios, Méthode d'élaboration des scénarios, in: C. Pivot, F. Rychen (dir.), La gestion des risques locaux à l'horizon 2020, Datar-Editions de l'Aube, La Tour d'Aigues, 2004, p. 9-10, 177-187.
19. Durand J. A new method for constructing scenarios. Futures 4 4 (1972) 325-330
20. Eymard J. A Markovian cross-impact model. Futures 9 3 (1977) 216-228
21. Enzer S. Interax: an interactive model for studying future business environment. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 17 2&3 (1980) 141-153 211-242
22. Canarelli P. Analysing the past and managing the future using neural networks. Futures 27 3 (1995) 325-338
23. Slaughter R. Futures Beyond Dystopia (2004), RoutledgeFalmer, London
24. Unpublished report on military strategic decision processes, 2001.
25. F. Roubelat, Prospective, risques et crises, Cadmos Conference on Risk management and European Union Policies, Ecole militaire, Paris, 2001.
26. Pettigrew A. Examining change in the long-term context of culture and politics. In: Hinings, et al. (Ed). Strategic and Organizational Change (1985), Academic press, New York 269-318
27. Ogilvy J. Creating Better Futures (2002), Oxford University Press, New York