메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 142, Issue 1, 2008, Pages 1-27

Nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and spurious forecasts

Author keywords

Forecasting; Integrated time series; Misspecified models; Nonlinear transformations; Stock returns

Indexed keywords

FORECASTING; FUNCTION EVALUATION; INTEGRAL EQUATIONS; MATHEMATICAL TRANSFORMATIONS; REGRESSION ANALYSIS;

EID: 36148964357     PISSN: 03044076     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.03.002     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (31)

References (26)
  • 1
    • 36148933850 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Campbell, J.Y., Thompson, S.B., 2004. Predicting the equity premium out of sample: Can anything beat the historical average?. NBER Working Paper 11468.
  • 2
    • 0347985220 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Index models with integrated time series
    • Chang Y., and Park J.Y. Index models with integrated time series. Journal of Econometrics 114 (2003) 73-106
    • (2003) Journal of Econometrics , vol.114 , pp. 73-106
    • Chang, Y.1    Park, J.Y.2
  • 3
    • 0347609343 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonlinear econometric models with cointegrated and deterministically trending regressors
    • Chang Y., Park J.Y., and Phillips P.C.B. Nonlinear econometric models with cointegrated and deterministically trending regressors. Econometrics Journal 4 (2001) 1-36
    • (2001) Econometrics Journal , vol.4 , pp. 1-36
    • Chang, Y.1    Park, J.Y.2    Phillips, P.C.B.3
  • 5
    • 0002894909 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories
    • Cochrane J.H. Where is the market going? Uncertain facts and novel theories. Economic Perspectives 21 (1997) 3-37
    • (1997) Economic Perspectives , vol.21 , pp. 3-37
    • Cochrane, J.H.1
  • 8
    • 0000029776 scopus 로고
    • Efficient capital markets: II
    • Fama E.F. Efficient capital markets: II. Journal of Finance 46 (1991) 1575-1617
    • (1991) Journal of Finance , vol.46 , pp. 1575-1617
    • Fama, E.F.1
  • 9
    • 36148986909 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Goyal, A., Welch, I., 2003. A note on predicting returns with financial ratios, Working paper, Yale University.
  • 10
    • 36148966680 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Goyal, A., Welch, I., 2004. A comprehensive look at the empirical performance of equity premium prediction. NBER Working Paper 10483.
  • 12
    • 36148955181 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hong, S.H., Phillips, P.C.B., 2005. Testing linearity in cointegrating relations with an application to purchasing power parity, Cowles Foundation Discussion Paper 1541.
  • 13
    • 1542715015 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hu, L., Phillips, P.C.B., 2004. Nonstationary discrete choice. Journal of Econometrics 103-138.
  • 14
    • 11344278864 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: Which one should we use?
    • Inoue A., and Kilian L. In-sample or out-of-sample tests of predictability: Which one should we use?. Econometric Reviews 23 (2004) 371-402
    • (2004) Econometric Reviews , vol.23 , pp. 371-402
    • Inoue, A.1    Kilian, L.2
  • 15
    • 36148975453 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Jeganathan, P., 2003. Second order limits of functionals of sums of linear processes that converge to fractional stable motions, Working paper, Indian Statistical Institute.
  • 16
    • 36148996601 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Kasparis, I., 2004. Functional form misspecification in regression with integrated time series. Ph.D. Thesis, University of Southampton, Southampton, UK.
  • 17
    • 0037403617 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?
    • Kilian L., and Taylor M.P. Why is it so difficult to beat the random walk forecast of exchange rates?. Journal of International Economics 60 1 (2003)
    • (2003) Journal of International Economics , vol.60 , Issue.1
    • Kilian, L.1    Taylor, M.P.2
  • 18
    • 34247480179 scopus 로고
    • Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root
    • Kwiatkowski D., Phillips P.C.B., Schmidt P., and Shin Y. Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root. Journal of Econometrics 54 (1992) 159-178
    • (1992) Journal of Econometrics , vol.54 , pp. 159-178
    • Kwiatkowski, D.1    Phillips, P.C.B.2    Schmidt, P.3    Shin, Y.4
  • 19
    • 7444239079 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Predicting returns with financial ratios
    • Lewellen J. Predicting returns with financial ratios. Journal of Financial Economics 74 (2004) 209-235
    • (2004) Journal of Financial Economics , vol.74 , pp. 209-235
    • Lewellen, J.1
  • 20
    • 0033412155 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Asymptotics for nonlinear transformations of integrated time series
    • Park J.Y., and Phillips P.C.B. Asymptotics for nonlinear transformations of integrated time series. Econometric Theory 15 (1999) 269-298
    • (1999) Econometric Theory , vol.15 , pp. 269-298
    • Park, J.Y.1    Phillips, P.C.B.2
  • 21
    • 0012846557 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Nonlinear regressions with integrated time series
    • Park J.Y., and Phillips P.C.B. Nonlinear regressions with integrated time series. Econometrica 69 (2001) 117-161
    • (2001) Econometrica , vol.69 , pp. 117-161
    • Park, J.Y.1    Phillips, P.C.B.2
  • 22
    • 2542621819 scopus 로고
    • Best uniform and modified pade approximants to probability densities in econometrics
    • Hildenbrand W. (Ed), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge
    • Phillips P.C.B. Best uniform and modified pade approximants to probability densities in econometrics. In: Hildenbrand W. (Ed). Advances in Econometrics (1983), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 123-167
    • (1983) Advances in Econometrics , pp. 123-167
    • Phillips, P.C.B.1
  • 23
    • 84959818799 scopus 로고
    • Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes
    • Phillips P.C.B., and Hansen B.E. Statistical inference in instrumental variables regression with I (1) processes. Review of Economic Studies 57 (1990) 99-125
    • (1990) Review of Economic Studies , vol.57 , pp. 99-125
    • Phillips, P.C.B.1    Hansen, B.E.2
  • 24
    • 34848892119 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Phillips, P.C.B., Jin, S., Hu, L., 2007. Nonstationary discrete choice: A corrigendum and addendum. Journal of Econometrics, in press, doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2007.01.017.
  • 26
    • 0000028873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A reality check for data snooping
    • White H. A reality check for data snooping. Econometrica 68 (2000) 1097-1126
    • (2000) Econometrica , vol.68 , pp. 1097-1126
    • White, H.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.