Empirical master equations. Part II: Application to stratospheric QBO, solar cycle, and northern annular mode

Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences

Volumn 64, Issue 9, 2007, Pages 2996-3015

  Dall'Amico, Mauro ^a,b   Egger, Joseph ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF MUNICH   (Germany)

^b UNIVERSITY OF READING   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; SOLAR ENERGY; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; WIND;

EMPIRICAL MASTER EQUATIONS; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION (QBO); SOLAR CYCLE; ZONAL WIND;

UPPER ATMOSPHERE;

ATMOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE; CLIMATE CHANGE; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; SOLAR ENERGY; TIME SERIES ANALYSIS; UPPER ATMOSPHERE; WIND;

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS; PROBABILITY DENSITY FUNCTION; QUASI-BIENNIAL OSCILLATION; SOLAR CYCLE; STRATOSPHERE; WEATHER FORECASTING; ZONAL WIND;

EID: 34948875842     PISSN: 00224928     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1175/JAS3993.1     Document Type: Article

References (46)

1. Ambaum, M. H. P., and B. I Hoskins, 2002: The NAO troposphere-stratosphere connection. J. Climate, 15, 1969-1978.
2. Baldwin, M. P., and T. J. Dunkerton, 1999: Propagation of the Arctic Oscillation from the stratosphere to the troposphere. J. Geophys. Res., 104, 30 937-30 946.
3. Baldwin, M. P., and T. J. Dunkerton, 2001: Stratospheric harbingers of anomalous weather regimes. Science, 294, 581-584.
4. Baldwin, M. P., and Coauthors, 2001: The quasi-biennial oscillation. Rev. Geophys., 39, 179-230.
5. Baldwin, M. P., D. B. Stephenson, D. W. J. Thompson, T. J. Dunkerton, A. J. Charlton, and A. O'Neill, 2003: Stratospheric memory and skill of extended-range weather forecasts. Science, 301, 636-640.
6. Black, R. X., 2002: Stratospheric forcing of surface climate in the Arctic Oscillation. J. Climate, 15, 268-277.
7. Cencini, M., G. Lacorata, A. Vulpiani, and E. Zambianchi, 1999: Mixing in a meandering jet: A Markovian approximation. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 29, 2578-2594.
8. Coughlin, K., and K.-K. Tung, 2001: QBO Signal found at the extratropical surface through northern annular modes. Geophys. Res. Lett., 28, 4563-4566.
9. Crommelin, D. T., 2004: Observed nondiffusive dynamics in large-scale atmospheric flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2384-2396.
10. Crooks, S. A., and L. J. Gray, 2005: Characterization of the 11-year solar signal using a multiple regression analysis of the ERA-40 dataset. J. Climate, 18, 996-1015.
11. Dall'Amico, M., 2005: Data-based master equations for the stratosphere. Ph.D. thesis, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität of Munich, 71 pp. [Available online at http://edoc.ub.uni-muenchen.de/archive/00003890/.]
12. Dall'Amico, M., and J. Egger, 2007: Empirical master equations. Part I: Numerical properties. J. Atmos. Sci., 64, 2981-2995.
13. Dunkerton, T. J., and D. P. Delisi, 1985: Climatology of the equatorial lower stratosphere. J. Atmos. Sci., 42, 376-396.
14. Egger, J., 1996: Comments on "On the 'downward control' of extratropical diabatic circulations by eddy-induced mean zonal forces." J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2103-2104.
15. Egger, J., 2001. Master equations for climatic parameter sets. Climate Dyn., 18, 169-177.
16. Fraedrich, K., 1988: El Niño-Southern Oscillation predictability. Mon. Wea. Rev., 116, 1001-1012.
17. Gray, L. J., S. Crooks, C. Pascoe, S. Sparrow, and M. Palmer, 2004: Solar and QBO influences on the timing of stratospheric sudden warmings. J. Atmos. Sci., 61, 2777-2796.
18. Haynes, P. H., 2005: Stratospheric dynamics. Annu. Rev. Fluid Mech., 37, 263-293.
19. Haynes, P. H., C. J. Marks, M. E. McIntyre, T. G. Shepherd, and K. P. Shine, 1991: On the "downward control" of extratropical diabatic circulations by eddy-induced mean zonal forces. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 651-678.
20. Haynes, P. H., M. E. McIntyre, and T. G. Shepherd, 1996: Reply. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2105-2107.
21. Holton, J. R., and H.-C. Tan, 1980: The influence of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation on the global circulation at 50 mb. J. Atmos. Sci., 37, 2200-2208.
22. Houghton, J. T., Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, X. Dai, K. Maskell, and C. A. Johnson, Eds., 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Cambridge University Press, 881 pp.
23. Labitzke, K., 1987: Sunspots, the QBO, and the stratospheric temperature in the north polar region. Geophys. Res. Lett., 14, 535-537.
24. Labitzke, K., 2001: The global signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the stratosphere: Differences between solar maxima and minima. Meteor. Z., 10, 83-90.
25. Labitzke, K., 2004: On the signal of the 11-year sunspot cycle in the stratosphere and its modulation by the quasi-biennial oscillation. J. Atmos. Sol. Terr. Phys., 66, 1151-1157.
26. Labitzke, K., and H. van Loon, 1999: The Stratosphere: Phenomena, History, and Relevance. Springer, 179 pp.
27. Lean, J., 2005: Living with a variable sun. Phys. Today, 58, 32-38.
28. Lorenz, E. N., 1951: Seasonal and irregular variations of the Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure profile. J. Meteor., 8, 52-59.
29. Lorenz, E. N., 1963: Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 130-141.
30. Pasmanter, R. A., and A. Timmermann, 2002: Cyclic Markov chains with an application to an intermediate ENSO model. Nonlinear Proc. Geophys., 10, 197-210.
31. Qian, B., J. Corte-Real, and H. Xu, 2000: Is the North Atlantic Oscillation the most important atmospheric pattern for precipitation in Europe? J. Geophys. Res., 105, 11 901-11 910.
32. Reed, R. J., W. J. Campbell, L. A. Rasmussen, and D. G. Rogers, 1961: Evidence of the downward-propagating annual wind reversal in the equatorial stratosphere. J. Geophys. Res., 66, 813-818.
33. Rind, D., 2002: The sun's role in climate variations. Science, 296, 673-677.
34. Salby, M., and P. Callaghan, 2000: Connection between the solar cycle and the QBO: The missing link. J. Climate, 13, 328-338.
35. Salby, M., and P. Callaghan, 2002: Evidence of the solar cycle in the general circulation of the stratosphere. J. Climate, 17, 34-46.
36. Schönwiese, C. D., 1985: Praktische Statistik für Meteorologen und Geowissenschaftler. 2d ed. Gebrfider Borntraeger, 231 pp.
37. Spekat, A., B. Heller-Schulze, and M. Lutz, 1983: Über Großwetter und Markov-Ketten ("Großwetter" circulation analysed by means of Markov chains). Meteor. Rundsch., 36, 243-248.
38. Stolarski, R. S., P. Bloomfield, R. D. McPeters, and J. R. Herman, 1991: Total ozone trends deduced from Nimbus 7 TOMS data. Geophys. Res. Lett., 18, 1015-1018.
39. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 1998: The Arctic Oscillation signature in wintertime geopotential height and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett., 25, 1297-1300.
40. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 2000: Annular modes in the extratropical circulation. Part I: Month-to-month variability. J. Climate, 13, 1000-1016.
41. Thompson, D. W. J., and J. M. Wallace, 2001: Regional climate impacts of the Northern Hemisphere annular mode. Science, 293, 85-89.
42. Thompson, D. W. J., M. P. Baldwin, and J. M. Wallace, 2002: Stratospheric connection to Northern Hemisphere wintertime weather: Implications for predictions. J. Climate, 15, 1421-1428.
43. Uppala, S. M., and Coauthors, 2005: The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 131, 2961-3012.
44. Veryard, R. G., and R. A. Ebdon, 1961: Fluctuations in tropical stratospheric winds. Meteor. Mag., 90, 125-143.
45. Wallace, J. M., 2000: North Atlantic Oscillation/annular mode: Two paradigms - One phenomenon. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 126A, 791-805.
46. Zwanzig, R., 2001: Nonequilibrium Statistical Mechanics. Oxford University Press, 222 pp.