A layered Dempster-Shafer approach to scenario construction and analysis

ISI 2007: 2007 IEEE Intelligence and Security Informatics

Volumn , Issue , 2007, Pages 95-102

  Sanfilippo, Antonio ^a   Baddeley, Bob ^a   Posse, Christian ^a   Whitney, Paul ^a  

^a PACIFIC NORTHWEST NATIONAL LABORATORY   (United States)

Author keywords

Analysis of competing hypotheses; Bayesian networks; Dempster Shafer theory; Evidence based reasoning

Indexed keywords

BAYESIAN NETWORKS; HIERARCHICAL SYSTEMS; INTERFACES (COMPUTER); PARALLEL ALGORITHMS; PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS;

COMPETING HYPOTHESES; CONCEPTUAL LOADS; DEMPSTER SHAFER THEORY; EVIDENCE BASED REASONING;

DATA REDUCTION;

EID: 34748923553     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.1109/isi.2007.379540     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (25)

1. Dempster, A. Upper and lower probabilities induced by a multivalued mapping. Annals of mathematical statistics, 38:325-339, 1967.
2. Good L, Shrager J, Stefik M, Pirolli P, Card S, Heuer R. ACH0: A Tool for Analyzing Competing Hypotheses. Technical Description for Version 1.0, 2004 PARC draft report. http://www.cse.sc.edu/~mgv/BNSeminar/ACHAlgorithms-v12. pdf.
3. Guth, M. A probability foundation for vagueness and imprecision in fault tree analysis. IEEE Transactions on Reliability, 40(5):563-570, 1991.
4. Guttman, L. The basis for soalogram analysis, In Stouffer et. al. Measurement and Prediction. The American Soldier Vol. IV. New York: Wiley, 1950.
5. Hau, H.Y.; Kashyap, R.L. Belief Combination and propagation in a lattice-structured interference network. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man and Cybernetics, vol.20, no.1 pp.45-57, Jan/Feb 1990.
6. Heuer RJ Jr. Psychology of Intelligence Analysis. Center for the Study of Intelligence, Central Intelligence Agency, Washington, DC, 1999.
7. Hetzler, E. and Turner A. Analysis Experiences Using Information Visualization. IEEE Computer Graphics and Applications. Vol 24 Number 5, 2004.
8. Likert, R. A Technique for the Measurement of Attitudes. Archives of Psychology, 1932; 140, 55.
9. Miller G. The Magical Number Seven, Plus or Minus Two: Some Limits on Our Capacity for Processing Information. The Psychological Review, 1956; 63: 81-9.
10. Sanfilippo, A., B. Baddeley, A. J. Cowell, M. L. Gregory, R. Hohimer and S. Tratz (2005) Building a Human Information Discourse Interface to Uncover Scenario Content. Proceedings to the 2005 International Conference on Intelligence Analysis (McLean, VA), 2005.
11. Sanfilippo, A., B. Baddeley, A. Cowell, M. Gregory, S. Tratz and R. Hohimer Scenario Analysis: Human Information Discourse for Hypothesis Construction and Validation. VAC Views, July 2006 issue, pp. 10-11, 2006a. http://nvac.pnl.gov/vacviews/VACViews_july06.pdf.
12. Sanfilippo A, Tratz S, Gregory M, Chappell A, Whitney P, P, Posse C, Paulson P, Baddeley B, Hohimer R, White A. Automating Ontological Annotation with WordNet. Proceedings of the 3rd Global WordNet Conference, Jeju Island, South Korea, Jan 19-26 2006. 2006b.
13. Savage, Leonard. The Foundations of Statistics, 2nd edition. New York: Dover. 1972.
14. Schum, D. A. The Evidential Foundations of Probabilistic Reasoning, New York: Wiley, 1994.
15. Sentz, K, and Ferson, S. Combination of Evidence in Dempster-Shafer theory. Technical Report SAND2002-0835, Sandia National Laboratories, 2002. http://www.prod.sandia.gov/cgi-bin/techlib/access-control.pl/2002/020835. pdf.
16. Shafer, G. A mathematical theory of evidence. Princeton University Press, 1976.
17. Simon, C.; Weber, P. Bayesian networks implementation of the Dempster Shafer theory to model reliability uncertainty. ARES 2006. The First International Conference on Availability, Reliability and Security. Vol., no.pp. 6 pp.-, 20-22 April 2006.
18. Smarandache F., Dezert J. Applications and Advances of DSmt for Information Fusion. Am. Res. Press, Rehoboth, 2004. http://www.gallup. unm.edu/smarandache/DSmTbook1.pdf
19. Sticha, P, Buede, D. and Rees, R. APOLLO: An Analytical Tool for Predicting a Subject's Decisionmaking. Proceedings of the 2005 International Conference on Intelligence Analysis (McLean, VA), 2005.
20. Turner A, Hetzler E, Cheney B, Williams L, Zabriskie S. Method for Prospective Analysis of Alternative futures, Proceedings to the 2005 International Conference on Intelligence Analysis (McLean, VA), 2005.
21. Valtorta M, Dang J, Goradia H, Huang J and Huhns M. Extending Heuer's Analysis of Competing Hypotheses Method to Support Complex Decision Analysis". Proceedings to the 2005 International Conference on Intelligence Analysis (McLean, VA), 2005.
22. Yager, R. On the Dempster-Shafer Framework and New Combination Rules. Information Sciences 41:93-137, 1987.
23. Yager R.R., Kacprzyk J., M. Fedrizzi M. Advances in the Dempster-Shafer Theory of Evidence. John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1994.
24. Yen, J. 1989. GERTIS: a Dempster-Shafer approach to diagnosing hierarchical hypotheses. Commun. ACM 32, 5 (May. 1989), 573-585. DOI= http://doi.acm.org/10.1145/63485.63488.
25. Waltz, E. Knowledge Management in the Intelligence Enterprise. Artech House Publishers, 2003.