메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 50, Issue 1-3, 2007, Pages 97-112

Hierarchical Bayesian modelling for spatial analysis of the number of avalanche occurrences at the scale of the township

Author keywords

Avalanche frequency; Hierarchical Bayesian modelling; Spatial field; Township

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; FREQUENCY ESTIMATION; MARKOV PROCESSES; MONTE CARLO METHODS; STATISTICAL METHODS;

EID: 34548718792     PISSN: 0165232X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.coldregions.2007.01.008     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (38)

References (53)
  • 1
    • 23844453676 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Monte Carlo calibration of avalanches described as Coulomb fluid flows
    • Ancey C. Monte Carlo calibration of avalanches described as Coulomb fluid flows. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A 363 (2005) 1529-1550
    • (2005) Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London A , vol.363 , pp. 1529-1550
    • Ancey, C.1
  • 3
    • 33646687970 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A new method for avalanche hazard mapping using a combination of statistical and deterministic models
    • Barbolini M., and Keylock C.J. A new method for avalanche hazard mapping using a combination of statistical and deterministic models. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 2 (2002) 239-245
    • (2002) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences , vol.2 , pp. 239-245
    • Barbolini, M.1    Keylock, C.J.2
  • 4
    • 34548730023 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayes, T., 1763. Essay Towards Solving a Problem in the Doctrine of Chances. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. 53. pp. 370-418 and 54. pp. 296-325.
  • 7
    • 1642293330 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Physical-statistical modelling in geophysics
    • 10.1029/2002JD002865
    • Berliner M. Physical-statistical modelling in geophysics. Journal of Geophysical Research 108 D24 (2003) 10.1029/2002JD002865
    • (2003) Journal of Geophysical Research , vol.108 , Issue.D24
    • Berliner, M.1
  • 9
    • 28344449679 scopus 로고
    • Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics
    • (with discussion)
    • Besag J., York J., and Mollié A. Bayesian image restoration, with two applications in spatial statistics. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 43 (1991) 1-59 (with discussion)
    • (1991) Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics , vol.43 , pp. 1-59
    • Besag, J.1    York, J.2    Mollié, A.3
  • 12
    • 0346205399 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method and its application
    • Brooks S.P. Markov Chain Monte Carlo Method and its application. The Statistician 47-1 (1998) 69-100
    • (1998) The Statistician , vol.47-1 , pp. 69-100
    • Brooks, S.P.1
  • 15
    • 34548723124 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Commune de Chamonix Mont Blanc, projet de Centre de secours principal près des Pélerins, étude du risque d'avalanche
    • Cemagref ETNA. Commune de Chamonix Mont Blanc, projet de Centre de secours principal près des Pélerins, étude du risque d'avalanche. Rapport d'expertise, F. Rapin coord (2000)
    • (2000) Rapport d'expertise, F. Rapin coord
    • Cemagref ETNA1
  • 16
    • 12944287801 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians
    • Clark J.S. Why environmental scientists are becoming Bayesians. Ecology Letters 8 (2005) 2-14
    • (2005) Ecology Letters , vol.8 , pp. 2-14
    • Clark, J.S.1
  • 18
    • 37449021779 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Eckert, N., Parent, E., Naaim, M., Richard, D., in press-a. Bayesian stochastic modelling for avalanche predetermination: from a general system framework to return period computations. SERRA. Accepted for publication. doi:10.1007/s00477-007-0107-4.
  • 19
    • 34249066241 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Eckert, N., Parent, E., Richard, D., in press-b. Revisiting statistical-topographical methods for avalanche predetermination: Bayesian modelling for run-out distance predictive distribution. Accepted by Cold Regions Science and Technology. doi:10.1016/j.coldregions.2007.01.005.
  • 22
    • 0021518209 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic Relaxation, Gibbs distribution and the Bayesian restoration of images
    • Geman S., and Geman D. Stochastic Relaxation, Gibbs distribution and the Bayesian restoration of images. IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence Vol Pami-6 6 (1984) 721-741
    • (1984) IEEE Transactions on Pattern Analysis and Machine Intelligence , vol.Pami-6 , Issue.6 , pp. 721-741
    • Geman, S.1    Geman, D.2
  • 23
    • 84972492387 scopus 로고
    • Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences
    • Gelman A., and Rubin D.B. Inference from iterative simulation using multiple sequences. Statistical Science 7 (1992) 457-472
    • (1992) Statistical Science , vol.7 , pp. 457-472
    • Gelman, A.1    Rubin, D.B.2
  • 24
    • 14844294785 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • STARTER: a statistical GIS-based model for the prediction of snow avalanche susceptibility using terrain features - application to Alta Val Badia, Italian Dolomites
    • Ghinoi A., and Chang C.J. STARTER: a statistical GIS-based model for the prediction of snow avalanche susceptibility using terrain features - application to Alta Val Badia, Italian Dolomites. Geomorphology 66 (2005) 305-325
    • (2005) Geomorphology , vol.66 , pp. 305-325
    • Ghinoi, A.1    Chang, C.J.2
  • 28
    • 0034905122 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • On probability analysis in snow avalanche hazard zoning
    • Harbitz C., Harbitz A., and Farrokh N. On probability analysis in snow avalanche hazard zoning. Annals of Glaciology 32 (2001) 290-298
    • (2001) Annals of Glaciology , vol.32 , pp. 290-298
    • Harbitz, C.1    Harbitz, A.2    Farrokh, N.3
  • 29
    • 37449001556 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • L'enquête permanente sur les Avalanches (EPA). Statistique descriptive générale des événements et des sites
    • Avalaible online at http://www.avalanches.fr/. 101 pp.
    • Jamard A.L., Garcia S., and Bélanger L. L'enquête permanente sur les Avalanches (EPA). Statistique descriptive générale des événements et des sites. DESS Ingéniérie Mathématique option Statistique, Université Joseph Fourrier, Grenoble, France (2002). http://www.avalanches.fr/ Avalaible online at http://www.avalanches.fr/. 101 pp.
    • (2002) DESS Ingéniérie Mathématique option Statistique, Université Joseph Fourrier, Grenoble, France
    • Jamard, A.L.1    Garcia, S.2    Bélanger, L.3
  • 31
    • 33845512781 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic analysis of recent snow avalanche activity and climate in the French Alps
    • Jomelli V., Delval C., Grancher D., et al. Probabilistic analysis of recent snow avalanche activity and climate in the French Alps. Cold Regions Science and Technology 47 (2007) 180-192
    • (2007) Cold Regions Science and Technology , vol.47 , pp. 180-192
    • Jomelli, V.1    Delval, C.2    Grancher, D.3
  • 33
    • 0020971827 scopus 로고
    • Why should a forecaster and a decision maker use Bayes Theorem
    • Krzysztofopwicz R. Why should a forecaster and a decision maker use Bayes Theorem. Water Ressources Research 19-2 (1983) 327-336
    • (1983) Water Ressources Research , vol.19-2 , pp. 327-336
    • Krzysztofopwicz, R.1
  • 35
    • 0019187713 scopus 로고
    • Empirical calculations of snow avalanche run-out distances based on topographic parameters
    • Lied K., and Bakkehoi S. Empirical calculations of snow avalanche run-out distances based on topographic parameters. Journal of Glaciology 26 94 (1980) 165-176
    • (1980) Journal of Glaciology , vol.26 , Issue.94 , pp. 165-176
    • Lied, K.1    Bakkehoi, S.2
  • 36
    • 34548711071 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Maggioni, M., 2005. Avalanche release Areas and their influence on uncertainty in avalanche hazard mapping. PhD Thesis. University of Zurich.
  • 37
    • 0142156040 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The influence of topographic parameters on avalanche release and frequency
    • Maggioni M., and Gruber U. The influence of topographic parameters on avalanche release and frequency. Cold Regions Science and Technology 37 (2003) 407-419
    • (2003) Cold Regions Science and Technology , vol.37 , pp. 407-419
    • Maggioni, M.1    Gruber, U.2
  • 39
    • 0023526101 scopus 로고
    • Statistical and geometrical definition of snow avalanche run-out
    • McClung D., and Lied K. Statistical and geometrical definition of snow avalanche run-out. Cold Regions Science and Technology 13 (1987) 107-119
    • (1987) Cold Regions Science and Technology , vol.13 , pp. 107-119
    • McClung, D.1    Lied, K.2
  • 40
    • 0028551396 scopus 로고
    • Numerical avalanche prediction: Kootenay Pass, British Columbia, Canada
    • McClung D., and Tweedy J. Numerical avalanche prediction: Kootenay Pass, British Columbia, Canada. Journal of Glaciology 40 135 (1994) 350-358
    • (1994) Journal of Glaciology , vol.40 , Issue.135 , pp. 350-358
    • McClung, D.1    Tweedy, J.2
  • 41
    • 0142249312 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Exploring multi-scale spatial patterns in historical avalanche data, Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, Wyoming
    • McCollister C., Birkeland K., Hansen K., et al. Exploring multi-scale spatial patterns in historical avalanche data, Jackson Hole Mountain Resort, Wyoming. Cold Regions Science and Technology 37 (2003) 299-313
    • (2003) Cold Regions Science and Technology , vol.37 , pp. 299-313
    • McCollister, C.1    Birkeland, K.2    Hansen, K.3
  • 43
    • 3042608244 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Towards a conceptual approach to predetermining high-return-period avalanche run-out distances
    • Meunier M., and Ancey C. Towards a conceptual approach to predetermining high-return-period avalanche run-out distances. Journal of Glaciology 50-169 (2004) 268-278
    • (2004) Journal of Glaciology , vol.50-169 , pp. 268-278
    • Meunier, M.1    Ancey, C.2
  • 44
    • 0001455988 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bayesian mapping of disease
    • Gilks W.R., Richardson S., and Spiegelhalter D.J. (Eds), Chapman & Hall
    • Mollié A. Bayesian mapping of disease. In: Gilks W.R., Richardson S., and Spiegelhalter D.J. (Eds). Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. 2nd edition (2001) (1996), Chapman & Hall 359-379
    • (1996) Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. 2nd edition (2001) , pp. 359-379
    • Mollié, A.1
  • 48
    • 33845381176 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Der Lawinenwinter 1999
    • 588 pp.
    • SLF Davos. Der Lawinenwinter 1999. Ereignisanlyse (2000) 588 pp.
    • (2000) Ereignisanlyse
    • SLF Davos1
  • 49
    • 33750476930 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A Bayesian probabilistic framework for avalanche modelling based on observations
    • Straub D., and Grêt-Regamey A. A Bayesian probabilistic framework for avalanche modelling based on observations. Cold Regions Science and Technology 46 (2006) 192-203
    • (2006) Cold Regions Science and Technology , vol.46 , pp. 192-203
    • Straub, D.1    Grêt-Regamey, A.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.