Epidemic predictability in meta-population models with heterogeneous couplings: The impact of disease parameter values

International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos

Volumn 17, Issue 7, 2007, Pages 2491-2500

  Colizza, V ^a,b   Barrat, A ^a,c   Barthelemy M ^d   Vespignani, A ^b  

^a ISI FOUNDATION   (Italy)

^b INDIANA UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITÉ PARIS SUD   (France)

^d CEA DIF Centre d'Etudes de Bruyères Le Châtel   (France)

Author keywords

Complex networks; Epidemiology; Predictability; Stochastic noise

Indexed keywords

DISEASES; FUNCTION EVALUATION; PARAMETER ESTIMATION; POPULATION DYNAMICS; RANDOM PROCESSES;

COMPLEX NETWORKS; PREDICTABILITY; STOCHASTIC NOISE;

EPIDEMIOLOGY;

EID: 34548497176     PISSN: 02181274     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1142/S0218127407018567     Document Type: Article

References (26)

1. Anderson, R. M. & May, R. M. [1984] "Spatial, temporal and genetic heterogeneity in host populations and the design of immunization programs," IMA J. Math. Appl. Med. Biol. 1, 233-266.
2. Baroyan, O. V., Genchikov, L. A., Rvachev, L. A. & Shashkov, V. A. [1969] "An attempt at large-scale influenza epidemic modeling by means of a computer," Bull. Int. Epidemiol. Assoc. 18, 22-31.
3. Barrat, A., Barthélemy, M., Pastor-Satorras, R. & Vespignani, A. [2004] "The architecture of complex weighted networks," Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 101, 3747-3752.
4. Bolker, B. M. & Grenfell, B. T. [1993] "Chaos and biological complexity in measles dynamics," Proc. R. Soc. Lond. B 251, 75-81.
5. Bolker, B. M. & Grenfell, B. T. [1995] "Space persistence and dynamics of measles epidemics," Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B 348, 309-320.
6. Chowell, G., Hyman, J. M., Eubank, S. & Castillo-Chavez, C. [2003] "Scaling laws for the movement of people between locations in a large city," Phys. Rev. E 68, 066102.
7. Colizza, V., Barrat, A., Barthélemy, M. & Vespignani, A. [2006a] "The role of the airline transportation network in the prediction and predictability of global epidemics," Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 103, 2015-2020.
8. Colizza, V., Barrat, A., Barthélemy, M. & Vespignani, A. [2006b] "The modeling of global epidemics: Stochastic dynamics and predictability," Bull. Math. Bio., DOI 10.1007/s11538-006-9077-9.
9. Eubank, S., Guclu, H., Anil Kumar, V. S., Marathe, M. V., Srinivasan, A., Toroczkai, Z. & Wang, N. [2004] "Modeling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks," Nature 429, 180-184.
10. Ferguson, N. M., Keeling, M. J., Edmunds, W. J., Gani, R., Grenfell, B. T., Anderson, R. M. & Leach, S. [2003] "Planning for smallpox outbreaks," Nature 425, 681-685.
11. Ferguson, N. M., Cummings, D. A. T., Cauchemez, S., Fraser, C., Riley, S., Meeyai, A., Iamsirithaworn, S. & Burke, D. S. [2005] "Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia," Nature 437, 209-214.
12. Flahault, A. & Valleron, A.-J. [1991] "A method for assessing the global spread of HIV-I infection based on air-travel," Math. Pop. Studies 3, 1-11.
13. Gardiner, W. C. [2004] Handbook of Stochastic Methods for Physics, Chemistry and Natural Sciences, 3rd edition (Springer, Berlin).
14. Grais, R. F., Ellis, J. H. & Glass, G. E. [2003] "Assessing the impact of airline travel on the geographic spread of pandemic influenza," Europ. J. Epidemiol. 18, 1065-1072.
15. Grais, R. F., Ellis, J. H., Kress, A. & Glass, G. E. [2004] "Modeling the spread of annual influenza epidemics in the US: The potential role of air travel," Health Care Manag. Sci. 7, 127-134.
16. Grenfell, B. T. & Bolker, B. M. [1998] "Cities and villages: Infection hierarchies in a measles metapopulation," Ecol. Lett. 1, 63-70.
17. Guimerà, R. & Amaral, L. A. N. [2004] "Modeling the world-wide airport network," Europ. Phys. J. B 38, 381-385.
18. Guimerà, R., Mossa, S., Turtschi, A. & Amaral, L. A. N. [2005] "The worldwide air transportation network: Anomalous centrality, community structure, and cities' global roles," Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 102, 7794-7799.
19. Hufnagel, L., Brockmann, D. & Geisel, T. [2004] "Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world," Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 101, 15124-15129.
20. Keeling, M. J. & Rohani, P. [1995] "Estimating spatial coupling in epidemiological systems: A mechanistic approach," Ecol. Lett. 5, 20-29.
21. Lloyd, A. L. & May, R. M. [1996] "Spatial heterogeneity in epidemic models," J. Theor. Biol. 179, 1-11.
22. Longini, I. M. [1988] "A mathematical model for predicting the geographic spread of new infectious agents," Math. Biosci. 90, 367-383.
23. Longini, I. M., Nizam, A., Xu, S., Ungchusak, K., Hanshaoworakul, W., Cummings, D. A. T. & Halloran, M. E. [2005] "Containing pandemic influenza at the source," Science 309, 1083-1087.
24. Marro, J. & Dickman, R. [1998] Nonequilibrium Phase Transitions and Critical Phenomena (Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK).
25. May, R. M. & Anderson, R. M. [1984] "Spatial heterogeneity and the design of immunization programs," Math Biosci. 72, 83-111.
26. Rvachev, L. A. & Longini, I. M. [1985] "A mathematical model for the global spread of influenza," Math. Biosci. 75, 3-22.