메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 10, Issue 3, 2007, Pages 222-240

Ameliorating mental mistakes in tradeoff studies

Author keywords

Alternative solutions; Cognitive biases; Combining functions; Decision analysis; Evaluation criteria; Evaluation data; Preferred alternatives; Problem statement; Scores; Scoring functions; Trade studies; Tradeoff studies; Weights of importance

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; ERROR ANALYSIS; NUMERICAL METHODS; SENSORY PERCEPTION; SYSTEMS ENGINEERING;

EID: 34548460261     PISSN: 10981241     EISSN: 15206858     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1002/sys.20072     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (32)

References (76)
  • 1
    • 0004245883 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cambridge University Press, New York
    • G. Ainslie, Breakdown of will, Cambridge University Press, New York, 2001.
    • (2001) Breakdown of will
    • Ainslie, G.1
  • 2
    • 0019764064 scopus 로고
    • Impediments to accurate clinical judgment and possible ways to minimize their impact
    • H.R. Arkes, Impediments to accurate clinical judgment and possible ways to minimize their impact, J Consult Social Psychol 49 (1981), 323-330.
    • (1981) J Consult Social Psychol , vol.49 , pp. 323-330
    • Arkes, H.R.1
  • 5
    • 1542482865 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The systems engineering started in the middle process: A consensus of system engineers and project managers
    • A.T. Bahill and C. Briggs, The systems engineering started in the middle process: A consensus of system engineers and project managers, Syst Eng, 4(2) (2001) 156-167.
    • (2001) Syst Eng , vol.4 , Issue.2 , pp. 156-167
    • Bahill, A.T.1    Briggs, C.2
  • 6
    • 0003319845 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Discovering system requirements
    • A.P. Sage and W.B. Rouse Editors, Wiley, New York
    • A.T. Bahill and F.F. Dean, "Discovering system requirements," Handbook of systems engineering and management, A.P. Sage and W.B. Rouse (Editors), Wiley, New York, 1999, pp. 175-220.
    • (1999) Handbook of systems engineering and management , pp. 175-220
    • Bahill, A.T.1    Dean, F.F.2
  • 7
    • 23744444496 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Risk analysis of a pinewood derby: A case study
    • A.T. Bahill and W.J. Karnavas, Risk analysis of a pinewood derby: A case study, Syst Eng 3(3) (2000), 143-155.
    • (2000) Syst Eng , vol.3 , Issue.3 , pp. 143-155
    • Bahill, A.T.1    Karnavas, W.J.2
  • 8
    • 34548429853 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Zachman framework populated with baseball models
    • A.T. Bahill, R. Botta, and J. Daniels, The Zachman framework populated with baseball models, J Enterprise Architecture 2(4) (2006), 50-68.
    • (2006) J Enterprise Architecture , vol.2 , Issue.4 , pp. 50-68
    • Bahill, A.T.1    Botta, R.2    Daniels, J.3
  • 15
    • 0011790817 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • CMMI, Software Engineering Institute, Pittsburgh, PA, retrieved March
    • CMMI, Capability Maturity Model Integration, Software Engineering Institute, Pittsburgh, PA, 2006, http://www.sei.cmu.edu/cmmi/, retrieved March 2006.
    • (2006) Capability Maturity Model Integration
  • 16
  • 17
    • 24744451366 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The hybrid process that combines traditional requirements and use cases
    • J. Daniels and A.T. Bahill, The hybrid process that combines traditional requirements and use cases, Syst Eng 7(4) (2004), 303-319.
    • (2004) Syst Eng , vol.7 , Issue.4 , pp. 303-319
    • Daniels, J.1    Bahill, A.T.2
  • 18
    • 0013356113 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Quantitative methods for tradeoff analyses
    • J. Daniels, P.W. Werner, and A.T. Bahill, Quantitative methods for tradeoff analyses, Syst Eng 4(3) (2001), 190-212.
    • (2001) Syst Eng , vol.4 , Issue.3 , pp. 190-212
    • Daniels, J.1    Werner, P.W.2    Bahill, A.T.3
  • 19
    • 84882651637 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • DAR, Software Engineering Institute, Pittsburgh, PA, retrieved March
    • DAR, DAR basics: Applying decision analysis and resolution in the real world, Software Engineering Institute, Pittsburgh, PA, 2004, http://www.sei.cmu.edu/cmmi/presentations/sepg04.presentations/dar.pdf, retrieved March 2006.
    • (2004) DAR basics: Applying decision analysis and resolution in the real world
  • 20
    • 0017495672 scopus 로고
    • How to use multiattribute utility analysis for social decision making
    • W. Edwards, How to use multiattribute utility analysis for social decision making, IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybernet SMC-7 (1977), 326-340.
    • (1977) IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybernet , vol.SMC-7 , pp. 326-340
    • Edwards, W.1
  • 21
    • 58149452151 scopus 로고
    • The fallacy of personal validation: A classroom demonstration of gullibility
    • B.R. Forer, The fallacy of personal validation: A classroom demonstration of gullibility, J Abnormal Psychol 44 (1949), 118-121.
    • (1949) J Abnormal Psychol , vol.44 , pp. 118-121
    • Forer, B.R.1
  • 22
    • 84953484366 scopus 로고
    • How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond heuristics and biases
    • G. Gigerenzer, How to make cognitive illusions disappear: Beyond "heuristics and biases," Eur Rev Social Psychol 2(4) (1991), 83-115.
    • (1991) Eur Rev Social Psychol , vol.2 , Issue.4 , pp. 83-115
    • Gigerenzer, G.1
  • 24
    • 44049114641 scopus 로고
    • The weighting of evidence and the determinants of confidence
    • D. Griffin and A. Tversky, The weighting of evidence and the determinants of confidence, Cognitive Psychol 24 (1992), 411-435.
    • (1992) Cognitive Psychol , vol.24 , pp. 411-435
    • Griffin, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 26
    • 30344451656 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The hidden traps in decision making, HBR Classic
    • J.S. Hammond, R.L. Keeney, and H. Raiffa, The hidden traps in decision making, HBR Classic, Harvard Bus Rev 184(1) (2006), 118-132.
    • (2006) Harvard Bus Rev , vol.184 , Issue.1 , pp. 118-132
    • Hammond, J.S.1    Keeney, R.L.2    Raiffa, H.3
  • 28
    • 0039251235 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Preference reversals between joint and separate evaluations of options: A theoretical analysis
    • C.K. Hsee, G. Loewenstein, S. Blount, and M. Bazerman, Preference reversals between joint and separate evaluations of options: A theoretical analysis, Psychol Bull 125(5) (1999), 576-590.
    • (1999) Psychol Bull , vol.125 , Issue.5 , pp. 576-590
    • Hsee, C.K.1    Loewenstein, G.2    Blount, S.3    Bazerman, M.4
  • 31
    • 0242267471 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality
    • D. Kahneman, A perspective on judgment and choice: Mapping bounded rationality, Amer Psychol 58(9) (2003), 697-720.
    • (2003) Amer Psychol , vol.58 , Issue.9 , pp. 697-720
    • Kahneman, D.1
  • 32
    • 0013305901 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment
    • T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman Editors, Cambridge University Press, New York
    • D. Kahneman and S. Frederick, "Representativeness revisited: Attribute substitution in intuitive judgment," Heuristics and biases, T. Gilovich, D. Griffin, and D. Kahneman (Editors), Cambridge University Press, New York, 2002, pp. 49-81.
    • (2002) Heuristics and biases , pp. 49-81
    • Kahneman, D.1    Frederick, S.2
  • 33
    • 21344493066 scopus 로고
    • Determinants of stated willingness to pay for public goods: A study in the headline method
    • D. Kahneman and I. Ritov, Determinants of stated willingness to pay for public goods: A study in the headline method, J Risk Uncertainty 9 (1994), 5-38.
    • (1994) J Risk Uncertainty , vol.9 , pp. 5-38
    • Kahneman, D.1    Ritov, I.2
  • 34
    • 0000125532 scopus 로고
    • Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk
    • D. Kahneman and A. Tversky, Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk, Econometrica 46(2) (1979), 171-185.
    • (1979) Econometrica , vol.46 , Issue.2 , pp. 171-185
    • Kahneman, D.1    Tversky, A.2
  • 35
    • 0003768818 scopus 로고
    • D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky Editors, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA
    • D. Kahneman, P. Slovic, and A. Tversky (Editors), Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, MA, 1982.
    • (1982) Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases
  • 36
    • 0027557226 scopus 로고
    • Sensitivity analyses of continuous and discrete systems in the time and frequency domains
    • W.J. Karnavas, P.J, Sanchez, and A.T. Bahill, Sensitivity analyses of continuous and discrete systems in the time and frequency domains, IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybernet SMC-23 (1993), 488-501.
    • (1993) IEEE Trans Syst Man Cybernet , vol.SMC-23 , pp. 488-501
    • Karnavas, W.J.1    Sanchez, P.J.2    Bahill, A.T.3
  • 38
    • 0036877242 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Common mistakes in making value trade-offs
    • R. L. Keeney, Common mistakes in making value trade-offs, Oper Res 50(6) (2002), 935-945.
    • (2002) Oper Res , vol.50 , Issue.6 , pp. 935-945
    • Keeney, R.L.1
  • 40
    • 23744465404 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Decision analysis
    • A.P. Sage and W.B. Rouse Editors, Wiley, Hoboken, NJ
    • C.W. Kirkwood, "Decision analysis," Handbook of systems engineering and management, A.P. Sage and W.B. Rouse (Editors), Wiley, Hoboken, NJ, 1999, pp. 1119-1145.
    • (1999) Handbook of systems engineering and management , pp. 1119-1145
    • Kirkwood, C.W.1
  • 44
    • 33751197582 scopus 로고
    • Reversals of preferences between bids and choices in gambling decisions
    • S. Lichtenstein, and P. Slovic, Reversals of preferences between bids and choices in gambling decisions, J Exper Psychol 89 (1971), 46-55.
    • (1971) J Exper Psychol , vol.89 , pp. 46-55
    • Lichtenstein, S.1    Slovic, P.2
  • 45
    • 0006322814 scopus 로고
    • An overview of multiple objective decision making
    • J.L. Cochrane, and M. Zelany Editors, University of South Carolina Press, Columbia, SC
    • K.R. MacCrimmon, "An overview of multiple objective decision making," Multiple criteria decision making, J.L. Cochrane, and M. Zelany (Editors), University of South Carolina Press, Columbia, SC, 1973, pp. 18-43.
    • (1973) Multiple criteria decision making , pp. 18-43
    • MacCrimmon, K.R.1
  • 46
    • 33746896990 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Frames, biases, and rational decision-making in the human brain
    • B. Martino De, D. Kumaran, B. Seymour, and R.J. Dolan, Frames, biases, and rational decision-making in the human brain, Science 313(5787) (2006), 684-687.
    • (2006) Science , vol.313 , Issue.5787 , pp. 684-687
    • Martino De, B.1    Kumaran, D.2    Seymour, B.3    Dolan, R.J.4
  • 47
    • 39749093168 scopus 로고
    • The magic number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information
    • G.A. Miller, The magic number seven, plus or minus two: Some limits on our capacity for processing information, Psychol Rev 63 (1956), 81-87.
    • (1956) Psychol Rev , vol.63 , pp. 81-87
    • Miller, G.A.1
  • 48
    • 0000245521 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises
    • R.S. Nickerson, Confirmation bias: A ubiquitous phenomenon in many guises, Rev Gen Psychol 2 (1998), 175-220.
    • (1998) Rev Gen Psychol , vol.2 , pp. 175-220
    • Nickerson, R.S.1
  • 50
    • 34548423007 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Framing hypotheses: A cautionary tale
    • H. Petroski, Framing hypotheses: A cautionary tale, Amer Scientist 91(2) (2003), 18-22.
    • (2003) Amer Scientist , vol.91 , Issue.2 , pp. 18-22
    • Petroski, H.1
  • 53
    • 0028796356 scopus 로고
    • Medical decision making in situations that offer multiple alternatives
    • D. Redelmeier and E. Shafir, Medical decision making in situations that offer multiple alternatives, JAMA 273(4) (1995), 302-305.
    • (1995) JAMA , vol.273 , Issue.4 , pp. 302-305
    • Redelmeier, D.1    Shafir, E.2
  • 60
    • 84959810873 scopus 로고
    • A behavioral model of rational choice
    • H.A. Simon, A behavioral model of rational choice, Quart J Econ 59 (1955), 99-118.
    • (1955) Quart J Econ , vol.59 , pp. 99-118
    • Simon, H.A.1
  • 61
    • 34548400994 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • H.A. Simon, Models of man: Social and rational, Wiley, New York, 1957.
    • H.A. Simon, Models of man: Social and rational, Wiley, New York, 1957.
  • 63
    • 34548380639 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tradeoff studies and cognitive biases
    • Ph.D. dissertation, Systems and Industrial Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ
    • E.D. Smith, Tradeoff studies and cognitive biases, Ph.D. dissertation, Systems and Industrial Engineering, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, 2006.
    • (2006)
    • Smith, E.D.1
  • 65
    • 84985817886 scopus 로고
    • Priming and communication: The social determinants of information use in judgements of life-satisfaction
    • F. Strack, L.L. Martin, and N. Schwarz, Priming and communication: The social determinants of information use in judgements of life-satisfaction, Eur J Social Psychol 18 (1988), 429-442.
    • (1988) Eur J Social Psychol , vol.18 , pp. 429-442
    • Strack, F.1    Martin, L.L.2    Schwarz, N.3
  • 66
    • 0016264378 scopus 로고
    • Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
    • A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases, Science 185 (1974), 1124-1131.
    • (1974) Science , vol.185 , pp. 1124-1131
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 67
    • 0019392722 scopus 로고
    • The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice
    • A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice, Science 211 (1981), 453-458.
    • (1981) Science , vol.211 , pp. 453-458
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 68
    • 31744450082 scopus 로고
    • Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty
    • A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty, J Risk Uncertainty 5 (1992), 297-323.
    • (1992) J Risk Uncertainty , vol.5 , pp. 297-323
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 69
    • 85098020226 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty
    • A. Tversky and D. Kahneman Editors, Cambridge University Press, Russell Sage Foundation, New York and Cambridge UK
    • A. Tversky and D. Kahneman, "Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty," in Choices, Values and Frames, A. Tversky and D. Kahneman (Editors), Cambridge University Press / Russell Sage Foundation, New York and Cambridge UK, 2000, pp 44-65.
    • (2000) Choices, Values and Frames , pp. 44-65
    • Tversky, A.1    Kahneman, D.2
  • 70
    • 84965432094 scopus 로고
    • The disjunction effect in choice under uncertainty
    • A. Tversky and E. Shafir, The disjunction effect in choice under uncertainty, Psychol Sci 3(5) (1992), 305-309.
    • (1992) Psychol Sci , vol.3 , Issue.5 , pp. 305-309
    • Tversky, A.1    Shafir, E.2
  • 71
    • 58149367820 scopus 로고
    • Contingent weighting in judgment and choice
    • A. Tversky, S. Sattath, and P. Slovic, Contingent weighting in judgment and choice, Psychol Rev 95(3) (1988), 371-384.
    • (1988) Psychol Rev , vol.95 , Issue.3 , pp. 371-384
    • Tversky, A.1    Sattath, S.2    Slovic, P.3
  • 72
    • 84878791264 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Trade studies with uncertain information
    • paper 9.3.1 C.D ROM
    • D.G. Ullman and B. Spiegel, Trade studies with uncertain information, 16th Annu Int Symp INCOSE, paper 9.3.1 C.D ROM, 2006.
    • (2006) 16th Annu Int Symp INCOSE
    • Ullman, D.G.1    Spiegel, B.2
  • 73
    • 0038979062 scopus 로고
    • Behavioral influences on weight judgments in multiattribute decision making
    • M. Weber and K. Borcherding, Behavioral influences on weight judgments in multiattribute decision making, Eur J Oper Res 26 (1993), 35-41.
    • (1993) Eur J Oper Res , vol.26 , pp. 35-41
    • Weber, M.1    Borcherding, K.2
  • 76
    • 34548404920 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The nature of research in systems engineering
    • April 15-16, Los Angeles, CA, paper 119, CD ROM
    • A.W. Wymore, The nature of research in systems engineering, USC Conf Syst Eng Res, April 15-16, 2004, Los Angeles, CA, paper 119, CD ROM, 2004.
    • (2004) USC Conf Syst Eng Res
    • Wymore, A.W.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.