Bayesian proportional hazard analysis of the timing of high school dropout decisions

Econometric Reviews

Volumn 26, Issue 5, 2007, Pages 529-556

  Li, Mingliang ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY AT BUFFALO   (United States)

Author keywords

Bayesian analysis; High school dropout behavior; Proportional hazard analysis

Indexed keywords

EID: 34548356928     PISSN: 07474938     EISSN: 15324168     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/07474930701509416     Document Type: Article

References (62)

1. Abbring, J. H., Van den Berg, G. J. (2007). The unobserved heterogeneity distribution in duration analysis. Biometrika 94(1):87-99.
2. Angrist, J. D., Krueger, A. B. (1991). Does compulsory school attendance affect schooling and earnings? Quarterly Journal of Economics 106(4):979-1014.
3. Bane, M. J., Ellwood, D. (1983). The dynamics of dependence: the routes to self-sufficiency. Report prepared for the Office of Planning and Evaluation, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
4. Betts, J. R. (1995). Does school quality matter? Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Review of Economics and Statistics 77(2):231-250.
5. Betts, J. R. (1996). Do school resources matter only for older workers? Review of Economics and Statistics 78 (4):638-652.
6. Blakemore, A. E., Low, S. A. (1984). The high-school dropout decision and its wage consequences. Economics of Education Review 3(2):111-119.
7. Bolstad, W. M., Manda, S. O. (2001). Investigating child mortality in Malawi using family and community random effects: a Bayesian analysis. Journal of the American Statistical Association 96:12-19.
8. Bray, J. W., Zarkin, G. A., Ringwalt, C., Qi, J. (2000). The relationship between marijuana initiation and dropping out of high school. Health Economics 9(1):9-18.
9. Campolieti, M. (1997). Bayesian estimation of duration models: an application of the multiperiod probit model. Empirical Economics 22:461-480.
10. Campolieti, M. (2000). Bayesian estimation and smoothing of the baseline hazard in discrete time duration models. Review of Economics and Statistics 82(4):685-701.
11. Campolieti, M. (2001). Bayesian semiparametric estimation of discrete duration models: an application of the Dirichlet process prior. Journal of Applied Econometrics 16(1):1-22.
12. Campolieti, M. (2003). On the estimation of hazard models with flexible baseline hazards and nonparametric unobserved heterogeneity. Economics Bulletin 3(24):1-10.
13. Card, D., Krueger, A. B. (1992). Does school quality matter? Returns to education and the characteristics of public schools in the United States. Journal of Political Economy 100(1):1-40.
14. Chib, S., Greenberg, E. (1995). Understanding the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. American Statistician 49(4):327-335.
15. Clayton, D. G. (1978). A model for association in bivariate life tables and its application in epidemiological studies of familial tendency in chronic disease incidence. Biometrika 65(1):141-151.
16. Clayton, D. G. (1991). A Monte Carlo method for Bayesian inference in frailty models. Biometrics 47(2):467-485.
17. Cox, D. R. (1972). Regression models and life-tables. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 34(2):187-220.
18. DesJardins, S. L. Ahlburg, D. A., McCall, B. P. (1999). An event history model of student departure. Economics of Education Review 18(3):375-390.
19. Elbers, C., Ridder, G. (1982). True and spurious duration dependence: the identifiability of the proportional hazard model. Review of Economic Studies 49(3):403-409.
20. Figlio, D. N. (1999). Functional form and the estimated effects of school resources. Economics of Education Review 18(2):241-252.
21. Garfinkel, I., McLanahan, S. S. (1986). Single Mothers and Their Children: A New American Dilemma. Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press.
22. Gamerman, D. (1997). Markov Chain Monte Carlo: Stochastic Simulation for Bayesian Inference. Chapman and Hall.
23. Ganderton, P. T. (1992). The effect of subsidies in kind on the choice of college. Journal of Public Economics 48:269-292.
24. Gelman, A., Carlin, J. B., Stern, H. S., Rubin, D. B. (1995). Bayesian Data Analysis. Chapman and Hall.
25. Gilks, W. R., Richardson, S., Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1996). Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. Chapman and Hall.
26. Gørgens, T., Horowitz, J. L. (1999). Semiparametric estimation of a censored regression model with an unknown transformation of the dependent variable. Journal of Econometrics 90:155-191.
27. Grogger, J. (1996a). Does school quality explain the recent black/white wage trend? Journal of Labor Economics 14(2):231-253.
28. Grogger, J. (1996b). School expenditures and post-schooling earnings: evidence from high school and beyond. Review of Economics and Statistics 78(4):628-637.
29. Guo, G., Rodriguez, G. (1992). Estimating a multivariate proportional hazards model for clustered data using the EM algorithm, with an application to child survival in Guatemala. Journal of the American Statistical Association 87:969-976.
30. Han, A., Hausman, J. A. (1990). Flexible parametric estimation of duration and competing risk models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 5(1):1-28.
31. Hanushek, E. A., Taylor, L. L. (1990). Alternative assessments of the performance of schools: measurement of state variation in achievement. Journal of Human Resources 25(2):179-201.
32. Hanushek, E. A., Rivkin, S. G., Taylor, L. L. (1996). Aggregation and the estimated effects of school resources. Review of Economics and Statistics 78(4):611-627.
33. Hanushek, E. A., Kain, J. F., Rivkin, S. G., (1998). Teachers, schools and academic achievement. NBER working paper No. 6691.
34. Heckman, J. J. (1991). Identifying the hand of past: distinguishing State dependence from heterogeneity. American Economic Review 81(2):75-79.
35. Heckman, J. J., Singer, B. (1984a). A method for minimizing the impact of distributional assumptions in econometric models for duration data. Econometrica 52(2):271-320.
36. Heckman, J. J., Singer, B. (1984b). The identifiability of the proportional hazard model. Review of Economic Studies 51 (2):231-241.
37. Heckman, J. J., Layne-Farrar, A., Todd, P. (1996). Human capital pricing equations with an application to estimating the effect of schooling quality on earnings. Review of Economics and Statistics 78(4):562-610.
38. Holford, T. R. (1976). Life tables with concomitant information. Biometrics 32(3):587-597.
39. Horowitz, J. L. (1999). Semiparametric estimation of a proportional hazard model with unobserved heterogeneity. Econometrica 67(5):1001-1028.
40. Hoxby, C. M. (1998). The effects of class size and composition on student achievement: new evidence from natural population variation. NBER working paper No. 6869.
41. Hoxby, C. M. (2000). Peer effects in the classroom: learning from gender and race variation. NBER working paper No. 7867.
42. Hsing, Y. (1995). Impacts of welfare participation, school dropouts, and policy force on illegal drug arrests. International Journal of Social Economics 22(8):16-21.
43. Kalbfleisch, J. D. (1978). Non-parametric Bayesian analysis of survival time data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B, 40(2):214-221.
44. Kaplan, E. L., Meier, P., (1958). Nonparametric estimation from incomplete observations. Journal of the American Statistical Association 53:457-481.
45. Kiefer, N. M. (1988). Economic duration data and hazard functions. Journal of Economic Literature 26(2):646-679.
46. Lancaster, T. (1979). Econometric methods for the duration of unemployment. Econometrica 47(4):939-956.
47. Lancaster, T. (1990). The Econometric Analysis of Transition Data. Cambridge University Press.
48. Lancaster, T., Nickell, S. (1980). The analysis of re-employment probabilities for the unemployed. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 143(2):141-165.
49. Li, M. (2006). High school completion and future youth unemployment: new evidence from high school and beyond. Journal of Applied Econometrics, forthcoming.
50. Li, M., Poirier, D. J., Tobias, J. L. (2004). Do dropouts suffer from dropping out? Estimation and prediction of outcome gains in generalized selection models. Journal of Applied Econometrics 19:203-225.
51. McCaul, E. J., Donaldson, G. A., Coladarci, T., Davis, W. E. (1992). Consequences of dropping out of school: findings from high school and beyond. Journal of Educational Research 85(4):198-207.
52. Meyer, B. D. (1990). Unemployment insurance and unemployment spells. Econometrica 58(4):757-782.
53. Nickell, S. (1979). Estimating the probability of leaving unemployment. Econometrica 47(5):1249-1266.
54. Oakes, D. (1982). A model for association in bivariate survival data. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 44(3):414-422.
55. Olsen, R. J., Farkas, G. (1989). Endogenous covariates in duration models and the effect of adolescent childbirth on schooling. Journal of Human Resources 24(1):39-53.
56. Poirier, D. J. (1995). Intermediate Statistics and Econometrics. Cambridge: MIT Press.
57. Rivkin, S. G. (1991). Schooling and Employment in the 1980's: Who Succeeds? Ph.D. dissertation, UCLA Department of Economics.
58. Ruggiero, M. (1994). Bayesian semiparametric estimation of proportional hazards models. Journal of Econometrics 62:277-300.
59. Sastry, N. (1997). A nested frailty model for survival data, with an application to the study of child survival in northeast Brazil. Journal of the American Statistical Association 92:426-435.
60. Stern, D., Paik, I.-W., Catterall, J. S., Nakata, Y.-F. (1989). Labor market experience of teenagers with and without high school diplomas. Economics of Education Review 8(3):233-246.
61. Van den Berg, G. J. (2001). Duration models: specification, identification and multiple durations. In: Heckman, J. J., Leamer, E., eds. Handbook of Econometrics. Vol. 5. Amsterdam: North-Holland.
62. Vaupel, J. W., Manton, K. G., Stallard, E. (1979). The impact of heterogeneity in individual frailty on the dynamics of mortality. Demography 16(3):439-454.