메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 23, Issue 3, 2007, Pages 497-511

Does past volatility affect investors' price forecasts and confidence judgements?

Author keywords

Calibration; Investment; Judgemental forecasting; Overconfidence; Volatility

Indexed keywords


EID: 34548279313     PISSN: 01692070     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2007.03.003     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (28)

References (40)
  • 1
    • 0038466803 scopus 로고
    • The influence of formal, substantive, and contextual task properties on the relative effectiveness of different forms of feedback in multiple cue probability learning tasks
    • Adelman L. The influence of formal, substantive, and contextual task properties on the relative effectiveness of different forms of feedback in multiple cue probability learning tasks. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 27 (1981) 423-442
    • (1981) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.27 , pp. 423-442
    • Adelman, L.1
  • 4
    • 0028201121 scopus 로고
    • Assessing the quality of expert judgement: Issues and analysis
    • Bolger F., and Wright G. Assessing the quality of expert judgement: Issues and analysis. Decision Support Systems 11 (1994) 1-24
    • (1994) Decision Support Systems , vol.11 , pp. 1-24
    • Bolger, F.1    Wright, G.2
  • 5
    • 34548240495 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Budescu, D.V., & Du, N. (in press). The coherence and consistency of investors' probability judgements. Management Science.
  • 7
    • 0034198618 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Confidence in aggregation of expert opinions
    • Budescu D.V., and Rantilla A.K. Confidence in aggregation of expert opinions. Acta Psychologica 104 (2000) 371-398
    • (2000) Acta Psychologica , vol.104 , pp. 371-398
    • Budescu, D.V.1    Rantilla, A.K.2
  • 8
    • 24044504223 scopus 로고
    • Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return
    • De Bondt W.F.M. Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return. International Journal of Forecasting 9 (1993) 355-371
    • (1993) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.9 , pp. 355-371
    • De Bondt, W.F.M.1
  • 9
    • 0000480869 scopus 로고
    • Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work
    • Fama E.F. Efficient capital markets: A review of theory and empirical work. Journal of Finance 25 (1970) 383-423
    • (1970) Journal of Finance , vol.25 , pp. 383-423
    • Fama, E.F.1
  • 11
    • 0026234897 scopus 로고
    • Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence
    • Gigerenzer G., Hoffrage U., and Kleinbolting H. Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence. Psychological Review 98 (1991) 506-528
    • (1991) Psychological Review , vol.98 , pp. 506-528
    • Gigerenzer, G.1    Hoffrage, U.2    Kleinbolting, H.3
  • 13
    • 0000270005 scopus 로고
    • Why are judgements less consistent in less predictable task situations?
    • Harvey N. Why are judgements less consistent in less predictable task situations?. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 63 (1995) 247-263
    • (1995) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes , vol.63 , pp. 247-263
    • Harvey, N.1
  • 15
    • 33847041768 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of data noise on statistical judgement
    • Harvey N., Ewart T., and West R. Effects of data noise on statistical judgement. Thinking and Reasoning 3 (1997) 111-132
    • (1997) Thinking and Reasoning , vol.3 , pp. 111-132
    • Harvey, N.1    Ewart, T.2    West, R.3
  • 16
  • 17
    • 0001037403 scopus 로고
    • Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues
    • Keren G. Calibration and probability judgements: Conceptual and methodological issues. Acta Psychologica 77 (1991) 217-273
    • (1991) Acta Psychologica , vol.77 , pp. 217-273
    • Keren, G.1
  • 23
    • 49449126621 scopus 로고
    • Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The calibration of probability judgements
    • Lichtenstein S., and Fischhoff B. Do those who know more also know more about how much they know? The calibration of probability judgements. Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 20 (1977) 159-183
    • (1977) Organizational Behavior and Human Performance , vol.20 , pp. 159-183
    • Lichtenstein, S.1    Fischhoff, B.2
  • 24
    • 84970123771 scopus 로고
    • Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980
    • Kahneman D., Slovic P., and Tversky A. (Eds), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK
    • Lichtenstein S., Fischhoff B., and Phillips L.D. Calibration of probabilities: The state of the art to 1980. In: Kahneman D., Slovic P., and Tversky A. (Eds). judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases (1982), Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, UK
    • (1982) judgement under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
    • Lichtenstein, S.1    Fischhoff, B.2    Phillips, L.D.3
  • 26
    • 0000685316 scopus 로고
    • Variable risk preferences and the focus of attention
    • March J.G., and Shapira Z. Variable risk preferences and the focus of attention. Psychological Review 99 (1992) 172-183
    • (1992) Psychological Review , vol.99 , pp. 172-183
    • March, J.G.1    Shapira, Z.2
  • 27
    • 0001738730 scopus 로고
    • An intertemporal capital asset pricing model
    • Merton R. An intertemporal capital asset pricing model. Econometrica 41 (1973) 867-887
    • (1973) Econometrica , vol.41 , pp. 867-887
    • Merton, R.1
  • 29
    • 84984516234 scopus 로고
    • An examination of the accuracy of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting
    • O'Connor M.J., and Lawrence M.J. An examination of the accuracy of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 8 (1989) 114-155
    • (1989) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.8 , pp. 114-155
    • O'Connor, M.J.1    Lawrence, M.J.2
  • 30
    • 38249015933 scopus 로고
    • Time series characteristics and the widths of judgemental confidence
    • O'Connor M., and Lawrence M.J. Time series characteristics and the widths of judgemental confidence. International Journal of Forecasting 7 (1992) 413-420
    • (1992) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.7 , pp. 413-420
    • O'Connor, M.1    Lawrence, M.J.2
  • 32
    • 0035486249 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The asymmetry of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting
    • O'Connor M.J., Remus W.E., and Griggs K. The asymmetry of judgemental confidence intervals in time series forecasting. International Journal of Forecasting 17 (2001) 623-633
    • (2001) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.17 , pp. 623-633
    • O'Connor, M.J.1    Remus, W.E.2    Griggs, K.3
  • 34
    • 0028409214 scopus 로고
    • Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of stock prices in a developing stock market
    • Önkal D., and Muradoglu G. Evaluating probabilistic forecasts of stock prices in a developing stock market. European Journal of Operational Research 74 (1994) 350-358
    • (1994) European Journal of Operational Research , vol.74 , pp. 350-358
    • Önkal, D.1    Muradoglu, G.2
  • 35
    • 0030102865 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices
    • Önkal D., and Muradoglu G. Effects of task format on probabilistic forecasting of stock prices. International Journal of Forecasting 12 (1996) 9-24
    • (1996) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.12 , pp. 9-24
    • Önkal, D.1    Muradoglu, G.2
  • 40
    • 15844365702 scopus 로고
    • Graininess of judgement under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off
    • Yaniv I., and Foster D.P. Graininess of judgement under uncertainty: An accuracy-informativeness trade-off. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 124 (1995) 424-432
    • (1995) Journal of Experimental Psychology: General , vol.124 , pp. 424-432
    • Yaniv, I.1    Foster, D.P.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.