Trend estimation in extremes of synthetic North Sea surges

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series C: Applied Statistics

Volumn 56, Issue 4, 2007, Pages 395-414

  Butler, Adam ^a   Heffernan, Janet E ^b   Tawn, Jonathan A ^b   Flather, Roger A ^c  

^a BIOMATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS SCOTLAND   (United Kingdom)

^b LANCASTER UNIVERSITY   (United Kingdom)

^c NATIONAL OCEANOGRAPHY CENTRE   (United Kingdom)

Author keywords

Coastal flood risk; Extreme sea levels; Extreme value theory; Generalized extreme value model; Local likelihood; Return level; Statistical oceanography; Storminess; Surge

Indexed keywords

EID: 34548130044     PISSN: 00359254     EISSN: 14679876     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9876.2007.00583.x     Document Type: Article

References (28)

1. Bijl, W., Flather, R. A., de Ronde, J. G. Schmith, T. (1999) Changing storminess?: an analysis of long-term sea level data sets. Clim. Res., 11, 161 172.
2. Bowman, A. W. Azzalini, A. (1997) Applied Smoothing Techniques for Data Analysis. Oxford : Oxford University Press.
3. Butler, A. (2005) Statistical modelling of synthetic oceanographic extremes. PhD Thesis. Lancaster University, Lancaster.
4. Butler, A., Heffernan, J. E., Tawn, J. A., Flather, R. A. Horsburgh, K. (2007) Extreme value analysis of decadal variations in storm surge elevations. J. Mar. Syst., to be published.
5. Chavez-Demoulin, V. Davison, A. C. (2005) Generalized additive modelling of sample extremes. Appl. Statist., 54, 207 222.
6. Coles, S. G. (2001) An Introduction to Statistical Modelling of Extreme Values. London : Springer.
7. Coles, S. G. Tawn, J. A. (1990) Statistics of coastal flood prevention. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A, 332, 457 476.
8. Coles, S. G. Tawn, J. A. (2005) Bayesian modelling of extreme surges on the UK East Coast. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. A, 363, 1387 1406.
9. Davison, A. C. Ramesh, N. I. (2000) Local likelihood smoothing of sample extremes. J. R. Statist. Soc. B, 62, 191 208.
10. Dixon, M. J. Tawn, J. A. (1992) Trends in UK extreme sea levels: a spatial approach. Geophys. J. Int., 111, 607 616.
11. Dixon, M. J., Tawn, J. A. Vassie, J. M. (1998) Spatial modelling of extreme sea-levels. Environmetrics, 9, 283 301.
12. Flather, R. A. (2001) Storm surges. In Encyclopedia of Ocean Sciences (eds J. H. Steele, S. A. Thorpe K. K. Turekian pp. 2882 2892. San Diego : Academic Press.
13. Flather, R. A., Smith, J. A., Richards, J. C., Bell, D. Blackman, D. L. (1998) Direct estimates of extreme storm surge elevations from a 40-year numerical model simulation and from observations. Glob. Atmos. Ocean Syst., 6, 165 176.
14. Gaetan, C. Grigoletto, M. (2004) Smoothing sample extremes with dynamic models. Extremes, 7, 221 236.
15. de Haan, L. de Ronde, J. (1998) Sea and wind: multivariate extremes at work. Extremes, 1, 7 45.
16. Hall, P. Tajvidi, N. (2000) Nonparametric analysis of temporal trend when fitting parametric models to extreme-value data. Statist. Sci., 15, 153 167.
17. Langenberg, H., Pfizenmayer, A., von Storch, H. Sundermann, J. (1999) Storm-related sea level variations along the North Sea coast: natural variability and anthropogenic change. Cont. Shelf Res., 19, 821 842.
18. Latham, M. (2006) Statistical methodology for the extreme values of dependent processes. PhD Thesis. Lancaster University, Lancaster.
19. Leadbetter, M. R., Lindgren, G. Rootzén, H. (1983) Extremes and Related Properties of Random Sequences and Series. New York : Springer.
20. Opsomer, J. D., Wang, Y. Yang, Y. (2001) Nonparametric regression with correlated errors. Statist. Sci., 16, 134 153.
21. Pauli, F. Coles, S. G. (2001) Penalized likelihood inference in extreme value analyses. J. Appl. Statist., 28, 547 560.
22. Pugh, D. T. Maul, G. A 1999) Coastal sea level prediction for climate change. In Coastal Ocean Prediction, ch. 15, pp. 377 404. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union.
23. Reistad, M. Iden, K. A. (1995) Updating, correction and evaluation of a hindcast data base of air pressure, winds and waves for the North Sea, Norwegian Sea and the Barents Sea. Technical Report 9. Det Norske Meteorologiske Institutt, Oslo.
24. Rogers, J. C. (1997) North Atlantic storm track variability and its association to the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate variability of Northern Europe. J. Clim., 10, 1635 1647.
25. Silverman, B. W. (1986) Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. Boca Raton : CRC Press.
26. Tawn, J. A. (1988) An extreme value theory model for dependent observations. J. Hydrol., 101, 227 250.
27. Waves and Storms in the North Atlantic Project (1998) Changing waves and storms in the Northeast Atlantic. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 741 760.
28. Woth, K., Weisse, R. von Storch, H. (2006) Climate change and North Sea storm surge extremes: an ensemble study of storm surge extremes expected in a changed climate projected by four different regional climate models. Ocean Dynam., 56, 3 15.