A feasibility study of data assimilation in numerical simulations of earthquake fault systems

Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors

Volumn 163, Issue 1-4, 2007, Pages 149-162

  Van Aalsburg, Jordan ^a   Grant, Lisa B ^b   Yakovlev, Gleb ^a   Rundle, Paul B ^a   Rundle, John B ^a   Turcotte, Donald L ^a   Donnellan, Andrea ^c  

^a UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^b UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA   (United States)

^c CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

Author keywords

Data assimilation; Earthquakes; Forecasting; Numerical simulations; Virtual California

Indexed keywords

COMPUTER SIMULATION; EXTRAPOLATION; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; STATISTICS; TECTONICS; WEATHER FORECASTING;

DATA ASSIMILATION; EARTHQUAKE FAULT SYSTEMS; PALEOSEISMIC DATA; STRIKE-SLIP FAULT SYSTEM;

EARTHQUAKES;

COMPUTER SIMULATION; DATA ASSIMILATION; EARTHQUAKE; EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE; EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION; EARTHQUAKE RECURRENCE; FAULT PROPAGATION; FEASIBILITY STUDY; FORECASTING METHOD; PALEOSEISMICITY; STRIKE-SLIP FAULT; TECTONIC SETTING; TOPOLOGY;

CALIFORNIA; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 34547921253     PISSN: 00319201     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.pepi.2007.04.020     Document Type: Article

References (38)

1. Akciz S.O., Grant L.B., and Arrowsmith J.R. New and extended paleoseismological evidence for large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault at the Bidart fan site, California. Seismol. Res. Lett. 77 2 (2006) 269
2. Biasi G.P., Weldon II R.J., Fumal T.E., and Seitz G.G. Paleoseismic event dating and the conditional probability of earthquakes on the southern San Andreas fault, California. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92 7 (2002) 2761-2781
3. Danforth C.M., Kalnay E., and Miyoshi T. Estimating and correcting global weather model error. Monthly Weather Rev. 135 (2007) 281-299
4. Dawson T.E., McGill S.F., and Rockwell T.K. Irregular recurrence of paleoearthquakes along the central Garlock fault near El Paso Peaks, Califonia. J. Geophys. Res. 108 B7 (2003) ESE 10-1-ESE 10-29
5. Fumal T.E., Weldon II R.J., Biasi G.P., Dawson T.E., Seitz G.G., Frost W.T., and Schwartz D.P. Evidence for large earthquakes on the San Andreas fault at the Wrightwood, Californa, paleoseismic site: a.d. 500 to present. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 92 7 (2002) 2726-2760
6. Fumal T., Niemi T., and Zhang H. High resolution paleoseismic records at three sites on the northern San Andreas fault. Seismol. Res. Lett. 77 (2006) 269
7. Goes S.D.B., and Ward S.N. Synthetic seismicity for the San Andreas Fault. Ann. Geofisica 37 (1994) 1495-1513
8. Grant L.B. Paleoseismology. In: Lee W.H., Kanamori H., and Jennings P.C. (Eds). Chapter 30 in "IASPEI International Handbook of Earthquake and Engineering Seismology" vol. 81A (2002), International Association of Seismology and Physics of the Earth's Interior 475-489
9. Grant L.B., and Gould M.M. Assimilation of paleoseismic data for earthquake smulation. Pure Appl. Geophys. 161 11/12 (2004) 2295-2306
10. Grant L.B., and Lettis W.R. Introduction to the special issue on paleoseismology of the San Andreas Fault System. In: Grant L.B., and Lettis W.R. (Eds). Paleoseismology of the San Andreas Fault System vol. 92 (2002), Bull. Seism. Soc. Am 7
11. Grant, L.B., Arrowsmith, J.R., Akciz, S.O., 2005. A composite chronology of earthquakes from the Bidart fan Paleoseismic Site, San Andreas Fault, vol. 86, no. 52. Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract U42A-07. Eos Trans. AGU, California.
12. Hall N.T. Holocene slip rates on the San Andreas fault in northern, California. Paper presented at The National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council and The San Francisco Bay Region Special Study Areas Workshop. Menlo Park, California, February 26-March 1 (1986)
13. Ismail-Zadeh A., Schubert G., Tsepelev I., and Korotkii A. Three-dimensional forward and backward numerical modeling of mantle plume evolution: effects of thermal diffusion. J. Geophys. Res. (B) 111 (2006) 15 CiteID B06401 doi:10.1029/2005JB003782
14. Kelson K.I., Streig A.R., Koehler R.D., and Kang K.H. Timing of late Holocene paleoearthquakes on the northern San Andreas fault at the Fort Ross Orchard Site, Sonoma County, California. B. Seismol Soc. Am. 96 3 (2006) 1012-1028
15. Knudsen K.L., Witter R.C., Garrison-Laney C.E., Baldwin J.N., and Carver G.A. Past earthquake-induced rapid subsidence along the northern San Andreas fault: a paleoseismological method for investigating strike-slip faults. B. Seismol Soc. Am. 92 7 (2002) 2612-2636
16. Lienkaemper J.J., Dawson T.E., Personius S.F., Seitz G.G., Reidy L.M., and Schwartz D.P. A record of large earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault for the past 500 years. B. Seismol Soc. Am. 92 7 (2002) 2637-2658
17. Lindvall S.C., Rockwell T.K., Dawson T.E., Helms J.G., and Weaver Bowman K. Evidence for two surface ruptures in the past 500 years on the San Andreas fault at Frazier Mountain, California. B. Seismol Soc. Am. 92 7 (2002) 2689-2703
18. McGill S., Dergham S., Barton K., Berney-Ficklin T., Grant D., Hartling C., Hobart K., Minnich R., Rodriguez M., Runnerstrom E., Russell J., Schmoker K., Stumfall M., Townsend J., and Williams J. Paleoseismology of the San Andreas fault at Plunge Creek, near San Bernardino, southern California. B. Seismol Soc. Am. 92 7 (2002) 2803-2840
19. Niemi T.M., and Hall N.T. Late Holocene slip rate and recurrence of great earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in Northern California. Geology 20 3 (1992) 195-198
20. Ourmieres Y., Brankart J.-M., Berline L., Brasseur P., and Verron J. Incremental analysis update implementation into a sequential ocean data assimilation system. J. Atmos. Ocean Technol. 23 (2006) 1729-1744
21. Rockwell T., Seitz G., Dawson T., and Young J. The long record of San Jacinto fault paleoearthquakes at Hog Lake: implications for regional patterns of strain release in the southern San Andreas fault system. Seismol. Res. Lett. 77 (2006) 270
22. Rundle J.B. A physical model for earthquakes, 2. Application to southern California. J. Geophys. Res. 93 (1988) 6255-6274
23. Rundle J.B., Tiampo K.F., Klein W., and Martins J.S.S. Self-organization in leaky threshold systems: the influence of near-mean field dynamics and its implications for earthquakes, neurobiology, and forecasting. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 99 suppl. 1 (2002) 2514-2521
24. Rundle J.B., Rundle P.B., Donnellan A., and Fox G. Gutenberg-Richter statistics in topologically realistic system-level earthquake stress-evolution simulations. Earth Planets Space 56 (2004) 761-771
25. Rundle J.B., Rundle P.B., Donnellan A., Turcotte D.L., Scherbakov R., Li P., Malamud B.D., Grant L.B., Fox G.C., McLeod D., Yakolev G., Parker J., Klein W., and Tiampo K.F. A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. (2005) 1-5. http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0507528102 (www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.0507528102)
26. Rundle P.B., Rundle J.B., Tiampo K.F., Donnellan A., and Turcotte D.L. Virtual California: fault model, frictional parameters, applications. PAGEOPH 163 (2006) 1819-1846 10.1007/s00024-006-0099-x
27. Schwartz D.P., Pantosti D., Okumura K., Powers T.J., and Hamilton J.C. Paleoseismic investigations in the Santa Cruz Mountains California: implications for recurrence of large magnitude earthquakes on the San Andreas fault. J. Geophys. Res. 103 B8 (1998) 17985-18001
28. Seitz G.G., Biasi G.P., and Weldon II R.J. An improved paleoseismic record of the San Andreas fault at Pitman Canyon. AGU Reference Shelf 4 (2000) 563-566
29. Sieh K., Stuiver M., and Brillinger D. A more precise chronology of earthquakes produced by the San Andreas fault in southern California. J. Geophys. Res. 94 (1989) 603-623
30. Sieh K. Slip rate across the San Andreas fault and prehistoric earthquakes at Indo, California. EOS Trans. 67 44 (1986) 1200
31. Sims, J.D., 1994. Stream channel offset and abandonment and a 200-year average recurrence interval of earthquakes on the San Andreas fault at Phelan Creeks, Carrizo Plain, California. In: Prentice, C.S., Schwartz, D.P., Yeats, R.S. (Eds.), Proc. of the Workshop on Paleoseismology, Marshall, California, 18-22 September. U.S. G.S. Open-File Report 94-568, pp. 170-172.
32. Stone E.M., Grant L.B., and Arrowsmith J.R. Recent rupture history of the San Andreas fault, southeast of Cholame in the northern Carrizo Plain, California. Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 93 3 (2002) 983-997
33. Ward S.N. An application of synthetic seismicity in earthquake statistics: the Middle America Trench. J. Geophys. Res. 97 (1992) 6675-6682
34. Ward S.N. A synthetic seismicity model for southern California: cycles, probabilities, hazards. J. Geophys. Res. 101 (1996) 22393-22418
35. Ward S.N. San Francisco Bay Area earthquake simulations: a step toward a standard physical earthquake model. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 90 (2000) 370-386
36. Weldon II R.J., Scharer K.M., Fumal T.E., and Biasi G.P. Wrightwood and the earthquake cycle: what a long recurrence record tells us about how faults work. GSA Today 14 9 (2004) 4-10
37. Weldon II R.J., Fumal T.E., Biasi G.P., and Scharer K.M. Past and future Earthquakes on the San Andreas Fault. Science 308 5724 (2005) 966-967
38. Williams P., and Seitz G. New insights to earthquake behavior of the southernmost San Andreas fault. Seismol. Res. Lett. 77 (2006) 270