메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 21, Issue 4, 2007, Pages 746-785

Direct multi-step estimation and forecasting

Author keywords

Adaptive estimation; Multi step forecasting; Non stationarity; Structural breaks; Varying horizon

Indexed keywords

ESTIMATION METHOD; FORECASTING METHOD; NUMERICAL MODEL;

EID: 34547896974     PISSN: 09500804     EISSN: 14676419     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-6419.2007.00518.x     Document Type: Review
Times cited : (139)

References (65)
  • 1
    • 0002920152 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Econometric forecasting strategies and techniques
    • In J.S. Armstrong (ed.) Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic
    • Allen, P.G. and Fildes, R.A. (2001) Econometric forecasting strategies and techniques. In J.S. Armstrong (ed.), Principles of Forecasting (pp. 303-362). Boston, MA: Kluwer Academic.
    • (2001) Principles of Forecasting , pp. 303-362
    • Allen, P.G.1    Fildes, R.A.2
  • 2
    • 17644427773 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Interest rate effects on output: Evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa
    • Aron, J. and Muellbauer, J. (2002) Interest rate effects on output: evidence from a GDP forecasting model for South Africa. IMF Staff Papers 49: 185-213.
    • (2002) IMF Staff Papers , vol.49 , pp. 185-213
    • Aron, J.1    Muellbauer, J.2
  • 3
    • 0002154840 scopus 로고
    • Order selection for linear time series models: A review
    • In T. Subba Rao (ed.) London: Chapman and Hall
    • Bhansali, R.J. (1993) Order selection for linear time series models: A review. In T. Subba Rao (ed.), Developments in Time Series Analysis (pp. 50-56). London: Chapman and Hall.
    • (1993) Developments in Time Series Analysis , pp. 50-56
    • Bhansali, R.J.1
  • 4
    • 0001618722 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Asymptotically efficient autoregressive model selection for multistep prediction
    • Bhansali, R.J. (1996) Asymptotically efficient autoregressive model selection for multistep prediction. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics 48: 577-602.
    • (1996) Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics , vol.48 , pp. 577-602
    • Bhansali, R.J.1
  • 5
    • 0002378252 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Parameter estimation and model selection for multistep prediction of time series: A review
    • In S. Gosh (ed.) New York: Marcel Dekker
    • Bhansali, R.J. (1999) Parameter estimation and model selection for multistep prediction of time series: A review. In S. Gosh (ed.), Asymptotics, Nonparametrics and Time Series (pp. 201-225). New York: Marcel Dekker.
    • (1999) Asymptotics, Nonparametrics and Time Series , pp. 201-225
    • Bhansali, R.J.1
  • 6
    • 84954239903 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-step forecasting
    • In M.P. Clements and D.F. Hendry (eds) Oxford: Blackwell
    • Bhansali, R.J. (2002) Multi-step forecasting. In M.P. Clements and D.F. Hendry (eds), A Companion to Economic Forecasting (pp. 206-221). Oxford: Blackwell.
    • (2002) A Companion to Economic Forecasting , pp. 206-221
    • Bhansali, R.J.1
  • 7
    • 84972535665 scopus 로고
    • Predictive likelihood: A review
    • Bjønstad, J. (1990) Predictive likelihood: A review. Statistical Science 5: 242-265.
    • (1990) Statistical Science , vol.5 , pp. 242-265
    • Bjønstad, J.1
  • 10
    • 34547880873 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • 'Weak' trend for estimation and forecasting at varying horizons in finite samples
    • Chevillon, G. (2005) 'Weak' trend for estimation and forecasting at varying horizons in finite samples. Oxford Economics Working Paper 210.
    • (2005) Oxford Economics Working Paper 210
    • Chevillon, G.1
  • 11
    • 34547894462 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multi-step forecasting in unstable economies: Robustness issues in the presence of location shifts
    • Chevillon, G. (2006) Multi-step forecasting in unstable economies: robustness issues in the presence of location shifts. Oxford Economics Working Paper 257.
    • (2006) Oxford Economics Working Paper 257
    • Chevillon, G.1
  • 12
    • 14844309293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Non-parametric direct multi-step estimation for forecasting economic processes
    • Chevillon, G. and Hendry, D.F. (2005) Non-parametric direct multi-step estimation for forecasting economic processes. International Journal of Forecasting 21: 201-218.
    • (2005) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.21 , pp. 201-218
    • Chevillon, G.1    Hendry, D.F.2
  • 13
    • 29244443447 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Evaluating direct multi-step forecasts
    • Clark, T.E. and McCracken, M.W. (2005) Evaluating direct multi-step forecasts. Econometric Reviews 24: 369-404.
    • (2005) Econometric Reviews , vol.24 , pp. 369-404
    • Clark, T.E.1    McCracken, M.W.2
  • 14
    • 34248625602 scopus 로고
    • On the limitations of comparing mean squared forecast errors
    • Clements, M.P. and Hendry, D.F. (1993) On the limitations of comparing mean squared forecast errors. Journal of Forecasting 12: 617-637.
    • (1993) Journal of Forecasting , vol.12 , pp. 617-637
    • Clements, M.P.1    Hendry, D.F.2
  • 21
    • 0001574653 scopus 로고
    • Prediction by exponentially weighted moving averages and related methods
    • Cox, D.R. (1961) Prediction by exponentially weighted moving averages and related methods. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 23: 414-422.
    • (1961) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B , vol.23 , pp. 414-422
    • Cox, D.R.1
  • 27
    • 0348242861 scopus 로고
    • Prediction with a generalized cost of error function
    • Granger, C.W.J. (1969) Prediction with a generalized cost of error function. Operations Research Quarterly 20: 199-207.
    • (1969) Operations Research Quarterly , vol.20 , pp. 199-207
    • Granger, C.W.J.1
  • 28
    • 18844428474 scopus 로고
    • The inadequacy of testing dynamic theory by comparing theoretical solutions and observed cycles
    • Haavelmo, T. (1940) The inadequacy of testing dynamic theory by comparing theoretical solutions and observed cycles. Econometrica 8: 312-321.
    • (1940) Econometrica , vol.8 , pp. 312-321
    • Haavelmo, T.1
  • 29
    • 0002556498 scopus 로고
    • The probability approach in econometrics
    • Haavelmo, T. (1944) The probability approach in econometrics. Econometrica 12 (Supplement): 1-115.
    • (1944) Econometrica , vol.12 , Issue.SUPPL. , pp. 1-115
    • Haavelmo, T.1
  • 30
    • 14844336442 scopus 로고
    • Optimal simulation path estimators
    • Hartley, M.J. (1972) Optimal simulation path estimators. International Economic Review 13: 711-727.
    • (1972) International Economic Review , vol.13 , pp. 711-727
    • Hartley, M.J.1
  • 31
    • 0004168026 scopus 로고
    • (2nd edn). Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf. First edition 1981
    • Harvey, A.C. (1993) Time Series Models (2nd edn). Hemel Hempstead: Harvester Wheatsheaf. First edition 1981.
    • (1993) Time Series Models
    • Harvey, A.C.1
  • 34
    • 0000250716 scopus 로고
    • Specification tests in econometrics
    • Hausman, J. (1978) Specification tests in econometrics. Econometrica 46: 1251-1271.
    • (1978) Econometrica , vol.46 , pp. 1251-1271
    • Hausman, J.1
  • 35
    • 0347568294 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fitting time series model by minimizing multistep-ahead errors: A frequency domain approach
    • Haywood, J. and Tunnicliffe-Wilson, G. (1997) Fitting time series model by minimizing multistep-ahead errors: A frequency domain approach. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 59: 237-254.
    • (1997) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B , vol.59 , pp. 237-254
    • Haywood, J.1    Tunnicliffe-Wilson, G.2
  • 37
    • 34547886633 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A general forecast-error taxonomy
    • Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society
    • Hendry, D.F. (2000) A general forecast-error taxonomy. Econometric Society World Congress 2000, Contributed Papers 0608, Econometric Society.
    • (2000) Econometric Society World Congress 2000
    • Hendry, D.F.1
  • 38
    • 29144531710 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Forecasting aggregates by disaggregates
    • Mimeo, Nuffield College, Oxford
    • Hendry, D.F. and Hubrich, K. (2005) Forecasting aggregates by disaggregates. Mimeo, Nuffield College, Oxford.
    • (2005)
    • Hendry, D.F.1    Hubrich, K.2
  • 39
    • 38249027533 scopus 로고
    • The exact multiperiod mean square forecast error of the first-order autoregressive model
    • Hoque, A., Magnus, J.R. and Pesaran, B. (1988) The exact multiperiod mean square forecast error of the first-order autoregressive model. Journal of Econometrics 39: 327-346.
    • (1988) Journal of Econometrics , vol.39 , pp. 327-346
    • Hoque, A.1    Magnus, J.R.2    Pesaran, B.3
  • 40
    • 0036208923 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multistep forecasting of long memory series using fractional exponential models
    • Hurvich, C.M. (2002) Multistep forecasting of long memory series using fractional exponential models. International Journal of Forecasting 18: 167-179.
    • (2002) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.18 , pp. 167-179
    • Hurvich, C.M.1
  • 41
    • 0037821224 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multistep prediction in autoregressive processes
    • Ing, C.-K. (2003) Multistep prediction in autoregressive processes. Econometric Theory 19: 254-279.
    • (2003) Econometric Theory , vol.19 , pp. 254-279
    • Ing, C.-K.1
  • 42
    • 20444476597 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Selecting optimal multistep predictors for autoregressive process of unknown order
    • Ing, C.-K. (2004) Selecting optimal multistep predictors for autoregressive process of unknown order. Annals of Statistics 32: 693-722.
    • (2004) Annals of Statistics , vol.32 , pp. 693-722
    • Ing, C.-K.1
  • 43
    • 14844287081 scopus 로고
    • A note on the estimation and prediction inefficiency of 'dynamic' estimators
    • Johnston, H.N. (1974) A note on the estimation and prediction inefficiency of 'dynamic' estimators. International Economic Review 15: 251-255.
    • (1974) International Economic Review , vol.15 , pp. 251-255
    • Johnston, H.N.1
  • 44
    • 14844309762 scopus 로고
    • Estimation and prediction in dynamic econometric models
    • In W. Sellekaerts (ed.) London: Macmillan
    • Johnston, H.N., Klein, L. and Shinjo, K. (1974) Estimation and prediction in dynamic econometric models. In W. Sellekaerts (ed.), Essays in Honor of Jan Tinbergen. London: Macmillan.
    • (1974) Essays in Honor of Jan Tinbergen
    • Johnston, H.N.1    Klein, L.2    Shinjo, K.3
  • 45
    • 0019665682 scopus 로고
    • Estimation based on one step ahead prediction versus estimation based on multi-step ahead prediction
    • Kabaila, P.V. (1981) Estimation based on one step ahead prediction versus estimation based on multi-step ahead prediction. Stochastics 6: 43-55.
    • (1981) Stochastics , vol.6 , pp. 43-55
    • Kabaila, P.V.1
  • 46
    • 0042886023 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Multiperiod forecasting using different models for different horizons: An application to U.S. economic time-series data
    • Kang, I.-B. (2003) Multiperiod forecasting using different models for different horizons: An application to U.S. economic time-series data. International Journal of Forecasting 19: 387-400.
    • (2003) International Journal of Forecasting , vol.19 , pp. 387-400
    • Kang, I.-B.1
  • 48
    • 21444437852 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Co-integration constraint and forecasting: An empirical examination
    • Lin, J.L. and Tsay, R.S. (1996) Co-integration constraint and forecasting: An empirical examination. Journal of Applied Econometrics 11: 519-538.
    • (1996) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.11 , pp. 519-538
    • Lin, J.L.1    Tsay, R.S.2
  • 49
    • 14844313305 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Model selection for multiperiod forecasts
    • Liu, S.I. (1996) Model selection for multiperiod forecasts. Biometrika 83(4): 861-873.
    • (1996) Biometrika , vol.83 , Issue.4 , pp. 861-873
    • Liu, S.I.1
  • 50
    • 84984426556 scopus 로고
    • The accuracy of time series methods: The results from a forecasting competition
    • Madrikakis, S.E. (1982) The accuracy of time series methods: The results from a forecasting competition. Journal of Forecasting 1: 111-153.
    • (1982) Journal of Forecasting , vol.1 , pp. 111-153
    • Madrikakis, S.E.1
  • 51
    • 0000429129 scopus 로고
    • On the statistical treatment of linear stochastic difference equations
    • Mann, H.B. and Wald, A. (1943) On the statistical treatment of linear stochastic difference equations. Econometrica 11: 173-220.
    • (1943) Econometrica , vol.11 , pp. 173-220
    • Mann, H.B.1    Wald, A.2
  • 52
    • 33747879841 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting microeconomic time series
    • Marcellino, M., Stock, J.H. and Watson, M. (2006) A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting microeconomic time series. Journal of Econometrics 135: 499-526.
    • (2006) Journal of Econometrics , vol.135 , pp. 499-526
    • Marcellino, M.1    Stock, J.H.2    Watson, M.3
  • 53
    • 84979431962 scopus 로고
    • Discussion: Second-generation time-series model, a comment
    • Peña, D. (1994) Discussion: Second-generation time-series model, a comment. Journal of Forecasting 13: 133-140.
    • (1994) Journal of Forecasting , vol.13 , pp. 133-140
    • Peña, D.1
  • 54
    • 34547867915 scopus 로고
    • Order estimation by accumulated prediction errors
    • Rissanen, J. (1986) Order estimation by accumulated prediction errors. Journal of Applied Probability 6: 67-76.
    • (1986) Journal of Applied Probability , vol.6 , pp. 67-76
    • Rissanen, J.1
  • 55
    • 14844304843 scopus 로고
    • On Monte Carlo estimates of moments that are infinite
    • Sargan, J.D. (1982) On Monte Carlo estimates of moments that are infinite. Advances in Econometrics 1: 267-299.
    • (1982) Advances in Econometrics , vol.1 , pp. 267-299
    • Sargan, J.D.1
  • 56
    • 21744456782 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • VAR forecasting under misspecification
    • Schorfheide, F. (2005) VAR forecasting under misspecification. Journal of Econometrics 128: 99-136.
    • (2005) Journal of Econometrics , vol.128 , pp. 99-136
    • Schorfheide, F.1
  • 57
    • 0001314395 scopus 로고
    • Asymptotically efficient selection of the order of the model for estimating parameters of a linear process
    • Shibata, R. (1980) Asymptotically efficient selection of the order of the model for estimating parameters of a linear process. Annals of Statistics 8: 147-164.
    • (1980) Annals of Statistics , vol.8 , pp. 147-164
    • Shibata, R.1
  • 58
    • 14844303434 scopus 로고
    • On multi-step prediction errors methods for time series models
    • Stoica, P. and Nehorai, A. (1989) On multi-step prediction errors methods for time series models. Journal of Forecasting 13: 109-131.
    • (1989) Journal of Forecasting , vol.13 , pp. 109-131
    • Stoica, P.1    Nehorai, A.2
  • 59
    • 0009128116 scopus 로고
    • Uniqueness of estimated k-step prediction models of ARMA processes
    • Stoica, P. and Soderstrom, T. (1984) Uniqueness of estimated k-step prediction models of ARMA processes. Systems and Control Letters 4: 325-331.
    • (1984) Systems and Control Letters , vol.4 , pp. 325-331
    • Stoica, P.1    Soderstrom, T.2
  • 60
    • 84979455306 scopus 로고
    • Some advances in non-linear and adaptive modelling in time-series analysis
    • Tiao, G.C. and Tsay, R.S. (1994) Some advances in non-linear and adaptive modelling in time-series analysis. Journal of Forecasting 13: 109-131.
    • (1994) Journal of Forecasting , vol.13 , pp. 109-131
    • Tiao, G.C.1    Tsay, R.S.2
  • 61
    • 0000110667 scopus 로고
    • Robustness of maximum likelihood estimates for multi-step predictions: The exponential smoothing case
    • Tiao, G.C. and Xu, D. (1993) Robustness of maximum likelihood estimates for multi-step predictions: The exponential smoothing case. Biometrika 80: 623-641.
    • (1993) Biometrika , vol.80 , pp. 623-641
    • Tiao, G.C.1    Xu, D.2
  • 63
    • 0001708718 scopus 로고
    • Multi-step estimation and forecasting in dynamic models
    • Weiss, A.A. (1991) Multi-step estimation and forecasting in dynamic models. Journal of Econometrics 48: 135-149.
    • (1991) Journal of Econometrics , vol.48 , pp. 135-149
    • Weiss, A.A.1
  • 64
    • 21444433626 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Estimating time series models using the relevant cost function
    • Weiss, A.A. (1996) Estimating time series models using the relevant cost function. Journal of Applied Econometrics 11: 539-560.
    • (1996) Journal of Applied Econometrics , vol.11 , pp. 539-560
    • Weiss, A.A.1
  • 65
    • 0001206741 scopus 로고
    • Estimating time series models using the relevant forecast evaluation criterion
    • Weiss, A.A. and Andersen, A.P. (1984) Estimating time series models using the relevant forecast evaluation criterion. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 147: 484-487.
    • (1984) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A , vol.147 , pp. 484-487
    • Weiss, A.A.1    Andersen, A.P.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.