The changing ecology of foreign policy-making in China: The ascension and demise of the theory of "peaceful rise"

China Quarterly

Volumn , Issue 190, 2007, Pages 291-310

  Glaser, Bonnie S ^a   Medeiros, Evan S ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

BUREAUCRACY; FOREIGN POLICY; INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS; LEADERSHIP; POLICY MAKING;

ASIA; CHINA; EURASIA; FAR EAST;

EID: 34547725812     PISSN: 03057410     EISSN: 14682648     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1017/S0305741007001208     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Given the continued sensitivity in China of discussing policy-making processes, Chinese sources remain rare. There is ample Western research including David M. Lampton, The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2002)
2. Lu Ning, The Dynamics of Foreign Policy Decision-making in China (Boulder, CO: Westview Press, 1997)
3. A. Doak Barnett, The Making of Foreign Policy in China (Boulder, CO: Holt, Praeger, 1985).
4. Wang Jisi, "Peaceful rise: A discourse in China," paper prepared for conference on "The rise of China: Theory and practice," Beijing University, Beijing, China, 54 January 2006.
5. Interviews were conducted by Bonnie Glaser in Beijing in August 2004, during subsequent visits to China in 2004-2005, and with Chinese scholars visiting Washington DC.
6. Tang Shiping, "Like zhongguo de anquan zhanlue" ("Understanding China's security strateg"), Guoji zhengzhi yanjiu (Studies of International Politics), No. 3 (September 2002), pp. 128-35
7. Tang Shiping and Zhang Yunling, "Zhongguo de diqu zhanlue" ("China's regional strategy"), Shijie jingji yu zhengzhi, No. 6 (June 2004), pp. 1-8.
8. Also see Avery Goldstein, Rising to the Challenge: China's Grand Strategy and International Security (Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press, 2005).
9. David Shambaugh, "China engages Asia: Reshaping the regional order," International Security, Vol. 29, No. 3 (2004105), pp. 64-99.
10. One of the first books on the subject of China's rise was Yan Xuetong et al., Zhongguo dejueqi: Guoji huanjing de pinggu (An Assessment of the International Environment for China's Rise) (Tianjin: Tianjin renmin chubanshe, 1999).
11. One of the first articles to use the term "peaceful rise" is Lu Zhongwei, "Baowo bianhua, zhongshi weilai," ("Firmly grasp change and value the future"), Xiandai guoji guanxi, No. 8 (2002), p. 4.
12. See also Huang Renwei, Zhongguo jueqi de shijian yu kongjian (The Time and Space for China's Rise) (Shanghai: Shanghai shehui kexue yuan chubanshe, 2002).
13. Zhang Liwei, "Personal and official contacts between Zoellick and Zheng Bijian have subtly and profoundly improved Sino-US relations," Shiji jingji baodao, 7 January 2006, Open Source Center (OSC) CPP20060130050001. The Foreign Broadcast Information Service (FBIS) was re-named the Open Source Center on 1 November 2005.
14. This is the full and formal name of the peaceful rise concept which is referred to throughout this article.
15. The task force included the China Reform Forum, the Central Party School's Institute of Strategic Studies, the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, and the China Institute of International Studies (CIIS).
16. For a comprehensive English language collection of Zheng's speeches on peaceful rise see China's Peaceful Rise Speeches of Zheng Bijian 1997-2005 (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2005).
17. Zheng Bijian, "A new path for China's peaceful rise and the future of Asia," 3 November 2003, http://history.boaoforum.org/English/E2003nh/dhwj/t20031103_184101.btk.
18. Interview with Zheng Bijian, "Peaceful rise: The most important 'Chinese characteristic' in socialism with Chinese characteristics," Xuexi shibao, 14 June 2004, FBIS, CPP20040614000309.
19. Zheng Bijian, "China's peaceful rise and opportunities for the Asia-Pacific region," speech at the Roundtable Meeting between Boao Forum for Asia and China Reform Forum, 24 April 2004.
20. For the linkage between the NSC and peaceful rise see "Wen Jiabao zongli zai Boao Yazhou luntan zuo zhuzhi yanjiang" ("Premier Wen Jiabao makes the keynote speech at the Boao Forum for Asia"), Xinhuanet, 2 November 2003.
21. Zheng Bijian, "Peaceful rise: The most important 'Chinese characteristic'," pp. 1-2.
22. Wang Jisi, "Will China and the United States 'contend for hegemony"?" speech delivered at the Boao Forum, April 2004, published in Huanqiu shibao, 28 May 2004, FBIS, CPP2004060200026.
23. Ruan Zongze, "What are the implications of China's peaceful rise to the world," Boao Forum, April 2004, http://www.crf.org.cn/peacefulrise/ruanzongzel.htm.
24. Tao Lan, "Zheng Bijian: CPC's authoritative theorist and drafter of important documents," Ching pao, No. 6 (25 September 1997), FBIS, FTS19970925001577.
25. According to one PLA source, Deng rejected speeches written by others and was only satisfied with the speeches that Zheng Bijian wrote.
26. China Daily, 10 December 2003, www.chinadaily.com.
27. Gu Ping, "China's 'peaceful rise,' which emphasizes achieving modernization through self-reliance, will benefit mankind," Renmin ribao, 17 February 2004, FBIS, CPP20040217000059.
28. Ta kung pao, 4 March 2004, FBIS, CPP20040304000096; Xinhua, 24 February 2004, FBIS, CPP20040224000264. China Foreign Affairs University Professor Qin Yaqing and CASS researcher Zhang Yuyan made presentations.
29. Premier Wen Jiabao's press conference at the conclusion of the second session of the Tenth National People's Congress (NPC), 15 March 2004. http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/zxxx/t80119.htm.
30. Luo Qinwen, "Chinese National Defence Minister expounds on the 'peaceful rise' road," Zhongguo xinwen she, 31 March 2004, FBIS, CPP20040401000025.
31. Xinhua Backgrounder, 23 April 2004, FBIS, CPP20040423000068.
32. Hu Jintao, 23 April 2004 Boao Forum speech. Xinhua, 24 April 2004, FBIS, CPP20040424000082. The similarity between Hu's "peaceful development" and Deng's famous axiom of "peace and development" being the main "trend of the times" is probably not a coincidence. In this sense, Hu is putting forward a slogan that appears to differ little in terminology from Dengist foreign-policy thought.
33. Zeng's speech was titled "Take the path of peaceful development, seek prosperity in common in the Asia-Pacific region," Xinhua, 26 April 2004, FRIS, CPP20040426000112.
34. See also Shao Zongwei and Zhang Yong, "Zeng: Nation will not seek hegemony," China Daily (Internet Version-WWW), 27 April 2004, FBIS, CPP20040427000016. A China Reform Forum scholar said the spirit of Zeng's speech came from the report that Zheng Bijian had given to the leadership a few weeks earlier. Interview, 11 August 2004.
35. According to one source, the "interview" with Zheng Bijian that was published in the Party School's Study Times in June was based on this report. See Zheng Bijian, "Peaceful rise: The most important 'Chinese characteristic'."
36. China's Peaceful Development Road (Beijing, China: State Council Information Office, December 2005); http://www.china.com.cn/english/ features/book/152684.htm.
37. For example, several new books emerged in late 2004 that explored various dimensions of China's rise and one prominent book by Shanghai authors was even entitled China's Peaceful Rise.
38. Jiang Xiyuan and Xialiping, Zhongguo heping jueqi (China's Peaceful Rise) (Beijing: Zhongguo shehui kexue chubanshe, July 2004).
39. The next two volumes are part of a three-book series on rising powers. Zhang Youwen and Xu Mingqi (eds.), Qiangguo jingji: Zhongguo heping jueqi de zhanlüe yu daolu (Powerful Economy: The Trend and Objective of China's Peaceful Rise) (Beijing: Renmin chubanshe, March 2004)
40. Zhang Youwen and Xu Mingqi (eds.), Jingji qiangguo: Zhongguo heping jueqi de qushi yu mubiao (Economic Power. The Trend and Objective of China's Peaceful Rise) (Beijing: Renmin chubanshe, March 2004).
41. The data and frequency counts were graciously assisted by Alastair Iain Johnston. In each instance, the frequency counts were the number of articles in each publication that contain reference to the term "peaceful rise" in the full text.
42. Wang Jisi, "Peaceful rise: A discourse in China."
43. Liu Jianfei, "Wei heping jueqi zhengming" ("A rectification of peaceful rise"), Liaowang xinwen zhoukan, 2 January 2006, p. 62.
44. On the various channels used to communicate such views to leaders see Bonnie S. Glaser and Phillip C. Saunders, "Chinese civilian foreign policy research institutes: Evolving roles and increasing influence," The China Quarterly, No. 171 (2002), pp. 601-20.
45. Shi Yinhong, "Basic trials and essential 'platforms' for China's peaceful rise," Ta kung pao, 14 March 2004, FBIS, CPP20040315000111.
46. Zhang Wenmu, Great powers' historical experience and China's choice," Strategy and Management, No. 2 (2004).
47. Ming bao, 25 March 2004.
48. Pan Wei, "'Peaceful rise' has never happened on the earth!" March 2004, as posted on www.irchina. org.
49. Chu Shulong, cited in "What to do after becoming a big power," Renmin ribao, 26 June 2004, FBIS, CPP20040628000074.
50. Yan Xuetong, "Peaceful rise and safeguarding peace - on strategy and tactics of China's peaceful rise," Guoji wenti yanjiu, No. 3 (13 May 2004), FBIS, CPP20040616000261.
51. This was among several criticisms cited by Zhang Hongxi, former consul general in New York, who harshly condemned the concept of peaceful rise in Shijie zhishi, 16 August 2005, FBIS, CPP20050901000267.
52. An advisory group composed of retired ambassadors was established by Jiang Zemin in September 1998 called the ambassadors consulting mechanism (dashi zixun jizhi). Sources say that Hu Jintao has not followed Jiang's practice of meeting the ambassadors group, but its members continue to meet sporadically and send reports to the leadership.
53. For an authoritative explanation of these phrases, see Qian Qichen's entry in Wang Taiping (ed.), Deng Xiaoping waijiao sixiang yanjiu lunwen ji (Collected Papers on the Study of Deng Xiaoping's Diplomatic Thought) (Beijing: Shijie zhishi chubanshe, 1996.) The authors are grateful to Taylor Fravel for highlighting this important source.
54. According to CICIR America expert Yuan Peng: "The debate in China over 'peaceful rise' or 'peaceful development' is in part associated with whether to continue the 'low profile' policy or to change over to a stance of 'striving for some achievements in world affairs..." This suggests that some Chinese experts attempted to use the peaceful rise debate to promote a more active foreign policy. Yuan Peng, "China's rise and the external circumstances," Contemporary International Relations, Vol. 15, No. 10 (October 2005), p. 10.
55. According to China's official statistics, the defence budget has quadrupled in real terms since 1995 and its share of annual GDP has grown accordingly. This has occurred as the government has run a budget deficit.
56. Li Jijun, "Need to bolster traditional, non-traditional security" Liaowang, 9 February 2004, FBIS, CPP20040414000056.
57. See also interview with Shi Yinhong in Nanfeng chuang, 1 February 2006, OSC, CPP20060216050009.
58. The seminal work on the peace and development debate is David M. Finkelstein, China Reconsiders Its National Security: The Great Peace and Development Debate of 1999 (Washington, DC: CNA Corporation, December 2000).
59. Also see Ren Xiao, The International Relations Theoretical Discourse in China: A Preliminary Analysis (Sigur Center for Asian Studies, George Washington University, Asia Paper No. 9, http://www.gwu.edu/~sigur/pubs/ SCAP9-Xiao.pdf
60. Denny Roy, "China's pitch for a multipolar world: The new security concept," Honolulu, HI: Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, Vol. 2, May 2003.
61. Robert L. Suettinger, "The rise and descent of 'peaceful rise'."
62. See also See Evan Medeiros, "China debates its 'peaceful rise' strategy," Yale Global Online, 22 June 2004, http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=4118.
63. On this point see Evan S. Medeiros, "Agents of influence: Assessing the role of Chinese foreign policy research organizations after the 16th Party Congress," in Andrew Scobell and Larry Wortzel (eds.), Civil-Military Change in China (Washington, DC: T"he American Enterprise Institute, September 2004).
64. See Suettinger, "The rise and descent of 'peaceful rise'."