Methods for developing multiscale participatory scenarios: Insights from Southern Africa and Europe

Ecology and Society

Volumn 12, Issue 1, 2007, Pages

  Kok, Kasper ^a   Biggs, Reinette ^b,c   Zurek, Monika ^d  

^a WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY   (Netherlands)

^b Materials Science and Manufacturing   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN MADISON   (United States)

^d Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)

Author keywords

Mediterranean; Multiscale scenario; Participation; Scale; Scenario; Southern Africa

Indexed keywords

BIODIVERSITY; DECISION MAKING; ENVIRONMENTAL ASSESSMENT; ENVIRONMENTAL PLANNING; PARTICIPATORY APPROACH; STAKEHOLDER;

AFRICA; EURASIA; EUROPE; MEDITERRANEAN REGION; MEDITERRANEAN SEA; SOUTH AFRICA; SOUTHERN AFRICA; SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA;

EID: 34447294809     PISSN: None     EISSN: 17083087     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.5751/ES-01971-120108     Document Type: Article

References (48)

1. Alcamo, J. 2001. Scenarios as tools for international assessments. Prospects and Scenarios No. 5, Environmental Issue Report 24. European Environment Agency, Copenhagen, Denmark.
2. Allen, T. F. H., and T. B. Starr. 1982. Hierarchy: Perspectives for ecological complexity. University of Chicago Press, Chicago, Illinois, USA.
3. Andersen, I.-E., and B. Jaeger. 1999. Scenario workshops and consensus conferences: Towards more democratic decision-making. Science and Public Policy 26:331-340.
4. Antrop, M. 2000. Background concepts for integrated landscape analysis. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 77:17-28.
5. Biggs, R., E. Bohensky, P. V. Desanker, C. Fabricius, T. Lynam, A. A. Misslehorn, C. Musvoto, M. Mutale, B. Reyers, R. J. Scholes, S. Shikongo, and A. S. van Jaarsveld. 2004. Nature supporting people: the Southern African millennium ecosystem assessment. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Pretoria, South Africa.
6. Biggs, R., C. Raudsepp-Hearne, C. Atkinson-Palombo, E. Bohensky, E. Boyd, G. Cundill, H. Fox, S. Ingram, K. Kok, S. Spehar, M. Tengö, D. Timmer, and M. Zurek. 2007. Linking futures across scales: A dialog on multiscale scenarios. Ecology and Society 12, in press.
7. Bohensky, E., B. Reyers, A. S. van Jaarsveld, and C. Fabricius, editors. 2004. Ecosystem services in the Gariep Basin. SUNPReSS, Stellenbosch, South Africa.
8. Bohensky, E., B. Reyers, and A. S. van Jaarsveld. 2006. Future ecosystem services in a southern African river basin: A scenario planning approach to uncertainty. Conservation Biology 20(4):1051-1061.
9. Easterling, W. E., and K. Kok. 2003. Emergent properties of scale in global environmental modeling: Are there any? Pages 263-292 in J. Rotmans and D. S. Rothman, editors. Scaling in integrated assessment. Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse, The Netherlands.
10. European Environment Agency (EEA). 2006. PRospective Environmental analysis of Land Use Development in Europe (PRELUDE). Land use scenarios for Europe - modeling at the European scale. Background report. EEA, Copenhagen, Denmark.
11. Galer, G. 2004. Scenarios of change in South Africa. The Round Table 93(375):369-383.
12. Gallopín, G., A. Hammond, P. Raskin, and R. J. Swart. 1997. Branch points: Global scenarios and human choice. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
13. Global Land Project (GLP). 2005. Science plan and implementation strategy. International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) Report No. 53/International Human Dimensions Programme (IHDP) Report No. 19. IGBP Secretariat, Stockholm, Sweden.
14. Hisschemöller, M., and A. P. J. Mol, editors. 2002. Evaluating the COOL dialogues. Climate OptiOns for the Long Term - final report, Volume E. Institute for Environmental Studies, Free University of Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
15. Hughes, B. B. 1999. International futures: Choices in the search for a new world order. Westview Press, Boulder, Colorado, USA.
16. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2002. Special report on emissions scenarios (SERS). Available online at: http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/index.htm.
17. Kahane, A. 1998. Changing the winds. Whole Earth 96: 77-81.
18. Kahn, H., and A. Weiner. 1967. The year 2000: A framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years. Macmillan, New York, New York, USA.
19. Kok, K., and H. van Delden. 2004. Linking narrative storylines and quantitative models to combat desertification in the Guadalentín, Spain. Pages 754-759 in Proceedings of the Second Biennial Meeting of the International Environmental Modelling and Software Society (iEMSs) (Osnabrück, 2004). iEMSs, Manno, Switzerland.
20. Kok, K., M. Patel, and D. S. Rothman. 2004. Final report of European and Mediterranean scenarios: Upscaling the results from the target area scenarios. MedAction Deliverable 4. International Centre for Integrated assessment and Sustainable development (ISIS) working paper I04-E002. Maastricht University, Maastricht, The Netherlands. Available online at: http://www.icis.unimaas.nl/medaction.
21. Kok, K., D. S. Rothman, and M. Patel. 2006a. Multiscale narratives from an IA perspective. Part 1. European and Mediterranean scenario development. Futures 38:285-311.
22. Kok, K., M. Patel, D. S. Rothman, and G. Quaranta. 2006b. Multiscale narratives from an IA perspective. Part 2. Participatory local scenario development. Futures 38:261-284.
23. Lebel, L., P. Thongbai, K. Kok, J. B. R. Agard, E. Bennett, R. Biggs, M. Ferreira, C. Filer, Y. Gokhale, W. Mala, C. Rumsey, S. J. Velarde, Monika Zurek, H. Blanco, T. Lynam, Y. Tianxiang. 2005. subglobal scenarios. Pages 227-258 in D. Capistrano, C. K. Samper, M. J. Lee, and C. Raudsepp-Hearne, editors. Ecosystems and human well-being volume 4: Multiscale assessments. Findings of the subglobal assessments working group of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Island Press, Washington, D.C., USA.
24. Lynam, T., A. Sitoe, B. Reichelt, R. Owen, R. Zolho, R. Cunliffe, and I. Bwerinofa. 2004. Human well-being and ecosystem services: An assessment of their linkages in the Gorongosa-Marromeu region of Sofala Province, Mozambique to 2015. Institute of Environmental Studies, University of Zimbabwe, Harare, Zimbabwe.
25. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). 2003. Ecosystems and human well-being: A framework for assessment. Island Press, Washington, D.C., USA.
26. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA). 2005. Ecosystems and humanFwell-being: Scenarios: findings of the scenarios working group. Island Press, Washington, D.C., USA. Available online at: http://www.maweb.org/en/Scenarios.aspx.
27. New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD). 2001. The new partnership for Africa's development (NEPAD). Available online at: www.nepad.org/2005/files/documents/inbrief.pdf.
28. New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD). 2005. Summary of NEPAD action plans. Available online at: http://www.nepad.org/ 2005/files/documents/41.pdf.
29. O'Neil, R. V. 1988. Hierarchy theory and global change. Pages 29-25 in T. Roswall, R. G. Woodmansee, and P. G. Risser, editors. SCOPE 35 - scales and global change. John Wiley, Chichester, UK.
30. Patel, M., K. Kok, and D. S. Rothman. 2007. Participatory planning in land use analysis: An insight into the experiences and opportunities created by stakeholder involvement in scenario construction in the Northern Mediterranean. Land Use Policy 24, in press.
31. Peterson, D. L., and V. T. Parker, editors. 1998. Ecological scale: Theory and applications. Columbia University Press, New York, New York, USA.
32. Peterson, G. D., G. S. Cumming, and S. R. Carpenter. 2003. Scenario planning: A tool for conservation in an uncertain world. Conservation Biology 17:358-366.
33. Raskin, P., G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond, and R. Swart. 1998. Bending the curve: Toward global sustainability. PoleStar Series Report No. 8 of the Global Scenario Group, Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, Sweden.
34. Raskin, P., T. Banuri, G. Gallopín, P. Gutman, A. Hammond, R. W. Kates, and R. J. Swart. 2002. Great transition: The promise and lure of times ahead. Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
35. Raskin, P., F. Monks, T. Ribeiro, D. van Vuuren, and M. Zurek. 2005. Global scenarios in historical perspective. Pages 35-44 in S. R. Carpenter, P. L. Pingali, E. M. Bennett, and M. B. Zurek, editors. Ecosystems aFd human well-being: Scenarios. Volume 2: findings of the scenarios working group of the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. Island Press, Washington, D.C., USA. Available online at: http://www.maweb.org/documents/document.326.aspx.pdf.
36. Rotmans, J., M. B. A. van Asselt, C. Anastasi, S. C. H. Greeuw, J. Mellors, S. Peters, D. S. Rothman, and N. Rijkens-Klomp. 2000. Visions for a sustainable Europe. Futures 32: 809-831.
37. Rotmans, J., and D. S. Rothman, editors. 2003. Scaling in integrated assessment. Swets & Zeitlinger, Lisse, The Netherlands. QUERIED
38. Rounsevell, M. D. A., F. Ewert, I. Reginster, R. Leemans, and T. R. Carter. 2005. Future scenarios of European agricultural land use 2: projecting changes in cropland and grassland. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 107:117-135.
39. Scholes, R. J., and R. Biggs. 2004. Ecosystem services in southern Africa: A regional assessment. Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), Pretoria, South Affica.
40. Schwartz, P. 1991. The art of the long view: Paths to strategic insight for yourself and your company. Doubleday, New York, New York, USA.
41. United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). 2002. Global environment outlook 3. UNEP, Nairobi, Kenya.
42. Van Asselt, M. B. A., and N. Rijkens-Klomp. 2002. A look in the mirror: Reflection on participation in integrated assessment from a methodological perspective. Global Environmental Change 12: 167-184.
43. Van Asselt, M. B. A., J. Rotmans, and D. S. Rothman, editors. 2005. Scenario innovation: Experiences from a European experimental garden. Taylor & Francis, Leiden, The Netherlands.
44. Van Notten, P. W. F., J. Rotmans, M. B. A. van Asselt, and D. S. Rothman. 2003. An updated scenario typology. Futures 35:423-443.
45. Wack, P. 1985. Scenarios: Shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review 63:139-150.
46. Walker, B. H., L. H. Gunderson, A. P. Kinzig, C. Folke, S. R. Carpenter, and L. Schultz. 2006. A handful of heuristics and some propositions for understanding resilience in social-ecological systems. Ecology and Society 11: 13. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art13/
47. Westhoek, H. J., M. van den Berg, and J. A. Bakkes. 2006. Scenario development to explore the future of Europe's rural areas. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 114:7-20.
48. Wollenberg, E., D. Edmunds, and L. Buck. 2000. Using scenarios to make decisions about the future: Anticipatory learning for the adaptive co-management of community forests. Landscape and Urban Planning 47:65-77.