The impact of an AIDS vaccine in developing countries: A new model and initial results

Health Affairs

Volumn 26, Issue 4, 2007, Pages 1147-1158

  Stover, John ^a   Bollinger, Lori ^a   Hecht, Robert ^b   Williams, Clara ^c   Roca, Eva ^c  

^a AVENIR HEALTH   (United States)

^b INTERNATIONAL AIDS VACCINE INITIATIVE   (United States)

^c IAVI ^*

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS VACCINE;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; ARTICLE; CLASSIFICATION; DEVELOPING COUNTRY; DISEASE PREDISPOSITION; DRUG SCREENING; ECONOMICS; FEMALE; FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT; HIGH RISK BEHAVIOR; HUMAN; HUMAN IMMUNODEFICIENCY VIRUS INFECTION; INCIDENCE; MALE; METHODOLOGY; MIDDLE AGED; PATIENT SELECTION; PROBABILITY; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTOR; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR; STATISTICAL MODEL; STATISTICS; SUBSTANCE ABUSE;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; AIDS VACCINES; DEVELOPING COUNTRIES; DISEASE SUSCEPTIBILITY; DRUG EVALUATION; FEMALE; HIV INFECTIONS; HUMANS; INCIDENCE; MALE; MIDDLE AGED; MODELS, STATISTICAL; PATIENT SELECTION; PROBABILITY; RESEARCH SUPPORT; RISK ASSESSMENT; RISK FACTORS; RISK-TAKING; SEXUAL BEHAVIOR; SUBSTANCE ABUSE, INTRAVENOUS;

EID: 34347347035     PISSN: 02782715     EISSN: 02782715     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1377/hlthaff.26.4.1147     Document Type: Article

References (23)

1. Joint United Nations Program on HIV/AIDS, Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic (Geneva: UNAIDS, 2006).
2. Ibid.
3. See J. Stover and L. Bollinger, "A Review of the Literature on the Impact of AIDS Vaccines," Policy Research Working Paper no. 5 (New York: International AIDS Vaccine Initiative, 2005).
4. R. Anderson and M. Hanson, "Potential Public Health Impact of Imperfect HIV Type 1 Vaccines," Journal of Infectious Diseases 191, no. 1 Supp. (2005): S86-S96;
5. S. Blower, E.J. Schwartz, and J. Mills, "Forecasting the Future of HIV Epidemics: The Impact of Antiretroviral Therapies and Imperfect Vaccines," AIDS Reviews 5, no. 2 (2003): 113-125;
6. and M.P. Davenport et al., "Predicting the Impact of a Nonsterilizing Vaccine against Human Immunodeficiency Virus," Journal of Virology 78, no. 20 (2004): 11340-11351.
7. J. Stover and L. Bollinger, "The Impact of an AIDS Vaccine in Developing Countries: A New Model and Preliminary Results," Policy Research Working Paper no. 8 (New York: IAVI, October 2006).
8. This population accounts for about 85-90 percent of all adult HIV infections. The model is implemented as a module within the Spectrum Policy Modeling System. Full details, including the model equations, are given in ibid., as well as in J. Stover, "Projecting the Demographic Consequences of Adult HIV Prevalence Trends: The Spectrum Projection Package," Sexually Transmitted Infections 80, no. 1 Supp. (2004): i14-i18.
9. T.C. Quinn et al., "Viral Load and Heterosexual Transmission of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1," New England Journal of Medicine 342, no. 13 (2000): 921-929.
10. UNAIDS, Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic.
11. J. Stover et al., "The Global Impact of Scaling Up HIV/AIDS Prevention Programs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries," Science 311, no. 5766 (2006): 1474-1476.
12. Ibid.
13. B. Auvert et al., "Randomized, Controlled Intervention Trial of Male Circumcision for Reduction of HIV Infection Risk: The ANRS 1265 Trial," PLoS Medicine 2, no. 11 (2005): e298 ;
14. R.H. Gray et al., "Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Men in Rakai, Uganda: A Randomised Trial," Lancet 369, no. 9562 (2007): 657-666;
15. and R.C. Bailey et al., "Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention in Young Men in Kisumu, Kenya: A Randomised Controlled Trial," Lancet 369, no. 9562 (2007): 643-656.
16. Some vaccines are able to control viral replication after infection, reducing viral load and delaying the onset of illness. See P.B. Gilbert et al., "What Constitutes Efficacy for a Human Immunodeficiency Virus Vaccine That Ameliorates Viremia: Issues Involving Surrogate End Points in Phase 3 Trials," Journal of Infectious Diseases 188, no. 2 (2003): 179-193;
17. and N.F. Rose et al., "An Effective AIDS Vaccine Based on Live Attenuated Vesicular Stomatitis Virus Recombinants," Cell 106, no. 5 (2001): 539-549.
18. R. Hecht et al., "Putting It Together: AIDS and the Millennium Development Goals," PLoS Medicine 3, no. 11 (2006): e455.
19. Auvert et al., "Randomized, Controlled Intervention Trial";
20. Bailey et al., "Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention";
21. and Gray et al., "Male Circumcision for HIV Prevention."
22. UNICEF, Supply Division Annual Report (New York: UNICEF, 2005).
23. The Spectrummodel, which is an executable computer file containing the HIV Vaccine module and manual, can be downloaded from the Policy Project, http://www.policyproject.com/softwareDownload.cfm?name=Spectrum&file= SpecInstall.EXE&site=Policy (accessed 5 March 2007)