Statistical extrapolation methods for estimating wind turbine extreme loads

Collection of Technical Papers - 45th AIAA Aerospace Sciences Meeting

Volumn 21, Issue , 2007, Pages 14553-14571

  Ragan, Patrick ^a   Manuel, Lance ^a  

^a UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS AT AUSTIN   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

LOADS (FORCES); METHOD OF MOMENTS; RELIABILITY; STANDARDS; STATISTICAL METHODS;

INTERNATIONAL ELECTROTECHNICAL COMMISSION (IEC); STATISTICAL EXTRAPOLATION METHODS; TARGET RELIABILITY;

WIND TURBINES;

EID: 34250862731     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.2514/6.2007-1221     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (15)

1. IEC 61400-1 Ed. 3, Wind Turbines - Part 1: Design Requirements, International Electrotechnical Commission, IEC, 2005.
2. Moriarty, P.J., Holley, W.E., and Butterfield, S.P., "Extrapolation of Extreme and Fatigue Loads using Probabilistic Methods," NREL/TP-500-34421, 2004.
3. Fitzwater, L. M. and Winterstein, S. R., "Predicting Design Wind Turbine Loads from Limited Data: Comparing Random Process and Random Peak Models," Proceedings of the ASME Wind Energy Symposium, AIAA, Reno, NV, 2001, pp. 355-364.
4. Zayas, J. R., Sutherland, H. J., and Patton, T. C., "Continuous Long-Term Test Program on a Utility-Scale Wind Turbine," Proceedings of the ASME Wind Energy Symposium, AIAA, Reno, NV, 2006.
5. Gumbel, E.J., Statistics of Extremes, Columbia University Press, New York, NY, 1958.
6. Holmes, J.D., and Moriarty, W.W., "Application of the Generalized Pareto Distribution to Extreme Value Analysis in Wind Engineering," Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 83, pp. 1-10, 1999.
7. Pandey, M.D. and Sutherland HJ., "Probabilistic Analysis of LIST Data for the Estimation of Extreme Design Loads for Wind Turbine Components," Proceedings of the ASME Wind Energy Symposium, AIAA, Reno, NV, pp. 259-269, 2003.
8. Hosking, J.R.M., Wallis, J.R., and Wood, E.F., "Estimation of the Generalized Extreme Value Distribution by the Method of Probability Weighted Moments," Technometrics, 27, pp. 251-261, 1985.
9. Pickands, J., "Statistical Inference Using Extreme Order Statistics," The Annals of Statistics, 3(1), pp. 119-131, 1975.
10. Hosking, J.R.M., and Wallis, J.R., "Parameter and Quantile Estimation for the Generalized Pareto Distribution," Technometrics, 29, pp. 339-349, 1987.
11. Davison, A.C., and Smith, R.L., "Models for Exceedances over High Thresholds," J.R. Statist. Soc. B, 52(3), pp. 393-442, 1990.
12. Brabson, B.B., and Palutikof, J.P., "Tests of the Generalized Pareto Distribution for Predicting Extreme Wind Speeds," Journal of Applied Meteorology, 39, pp. 1627-1640.
13. Ryden, J., "Aspects on Estimation of Return Values for Extreme Wind Speeds," Proceedings of the Sixteenth International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, San Francisco, CA, 2006, pp. 81-85.
14. Winterstein, S.R., "Moment-Based Hermite Models of Random Vibration," Report No. 219, Dept. of Structural Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark, 1987.
15. Winterstein, S.R., "Nonlinear Vibration Models for Extremes and Fatigue," Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 114(10), pp. 1772-1790, 1988.