Optimizer's curse: Removing the effect of this bias in portfolio planning

SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium

Volumn , Issue , 2007, Pages 192-202

  Schuyler, John ^a   Nieman, Timothy ^b  

^a PetroSkills OGCI

^b Geomatrix Consultants   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FINANCIAL DATA PROCESSING; FORECASTING; INDUSTRIAL ECONOMICS; MONTE CARLO METHODS; OPTIMIZATION; PROJECT MANAGEMENT;

BAYESIAN INVERSION; COMPETITIVE BIDDING; PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION; STANDARD DEVIATION;

INDUSTRIAL MANAGEMENT;

EID: 34250854196     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.2523/107852-ms     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (8)

1. Smith, James E., Winkler, Robert L.,: "The Optimizer's Curse: Skepticism and Postdecision Surprise in Decision Analysis," Management Science (March 2006) 52, No. 3, 311.
2. Capen, E.C., Clapp, R.V., and Campbell, W.M., "Competitive Bidding in High-Risk Situations," Journal of Petroleum Technology (1971) 23, 641.
3. Brown, K.C.: "A note on the apparent bias of net revenue estimates for capital investment projects," J. Finance 29 (1974) 1215.
4. Harrison, J.r., and March, J.G.: "Decision making and postdecision surprises," Admin. Sci. Quart. (1984) 29 26.
5. Kahneman, Daniel, Slovic, Paul, and Tversky, Amos: Judgment under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, Cambridge University Press, NY, NY (1982).
6. Schuyler, John: "Rational is Practical: Better Evaluations through the Logic of Shareholder Value," paper SPE 030066 (revised) presented at the 1995 SPE Hydrocarbon Economics & Evaluation Symposium, Dallas (Mar 26-28).
7. Newendorp, Paul, and Schuyler, John: "Utility Theory Concepts," chapter 5 in Decision Analysis for Petroleum Exploration, 2d ed., Planning Press, Aurora, CO (2000).
8. Schuyler, John: "Stochastic Variance," chapter 13 in Risk and Decision Analysis in Projects, 2nd Ed., Project Management Institute, Newtown Square, PA (2001).