Constructing regional scenarios for sustainable agriculture in European Russia and Ukraine for 2000 to 2070

Regional Environmental Change

Volumn 7, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 63-77

  Romanenko, I A ^a   Romanenkov, V A ^b   Smith, P ^c   Smith, J U ^c   Sirotenko, O D ^d   Lisovoi, N V ^e   Shevtsova, L K ^b   Rukhovich, D I ^f   Koroleva, P V ^f  

^a Federal State Budgetary Scientific Institution Federal Research Center of Agrarian Economy and Social Development of Rural Areas All Russian Research Institute of Agricultural Economics   (Russian Federation)

^b Pryanishnikov All Russian Scientific Research Institute of Agrochemistry   (Russian Federation)

^c UNIVERSITY OF ABERDEEN   (United Kingdom)

^d HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL RESEARCH CENTER OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION   (Russian Federation)

^e National Scientific Center Institute for Soil Science and Agrochemistry Research Named after ON Sokolovsky   (Ukraine)

^f DOKUCHAEV SOIL SCIENCE INSTITUTE   (Russian Federation)

Author keywords

Adaptation; Climate change; Economic model; Soil organic carbon; Sustainable agriculture

Indexed keywords

ANIMALIA;

EID: 34250805367     PISSN: 14363798     EISSN: 1436378X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10113-007-0032-6     Document Type: Article

References (51)

1. Agriculture in Russia (1998) Statistical yearbook. Official release, Government Committee on Statistics (Goscomstat), Moscow, Russia, p 448 (in Russian)
2. Agriculture in Russia (2002) Statistical yearbook. Official release, Government Committee on Statistics (Goscomstat), Moscow, Russia, p 397 (in Russian)
3. Fischer G, Shan M, Tubiello FN, van Velhuizen H (2005) Socioeconomic and climate change impacts on agriculture: an integrated assessment, 1990-2080. Philos Trans R Soc B 360:2067-2083
4. Franko U, Oelschlaegel B, Schenk S (1995) Simulation of temperature-, water- and nitrogen dynamics using the Model CANDY. Ecol Modell 81:213-222
5. Franko U, Kuka K, Romanenko IA, Romanenkov VA (2007) Validation of the CANDY model with Russian long-term experiments. Reg Environ Change (this issue), doi:10.1007/ s10113-007-0027-3
6. IPCC Working Group I (2001) IPCC third assessment report. Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
7. Izrael YuA, Sirotenko OD (2003) Modeling climate change effect on crop productivity in Russian agriculture. Meteorologiya i gidrologiya 6:5-17 (in Russian)
8. Jenkinson DS, Rayner JH (1977) The turnover of soil organic matter in some of the Rothamsted classical experiments. Soil Sci 123:298-305
9. Kashtanov AN, Lisetskiy FN, Shvebs GI (1994) Principles of landscape-ecological agriculture. Kolos, Moscow, p 125 (in Russian)
10. Kuznetsov VV, Gar'kavy VV, Gaivoronskaya NF, Grigor'eva GV (eds) (2002) Normatives of standard direct and labour costs for crop production. Rostov-Don, p 295 (in Russian)
11. Lal R (2004) Soil carbon sequestration to mitigate climate change. Geoderma 123:1-22
12. Lewandrowski J, Peters M, Jones C et al (2004) Economics of sequestering carbon in the US agricultural sector. USDA-ERS, Tech Bull. 1909, p 61
13. Major indicators of RF agro-industrial complex: Biannual statistical bulletin, 1990-2000 (2000) Russian statistical agency. Main inter-regional center of processing and dissemination of statistical information, Moscow, Russia, p 115 (in Russian)
14. McCarl B, Schneider U (2000) US agriculture's role in a greenhouse gas emission mitigation world: an economic perspective. Rev Agric Econ 22:134-159
15. Mendelsohn R, Dinar A, Sanghi A (2001 ) The effect of development on the climate sensitivity of agriculture. Environ Dev Econ 6:85-101
16. Metzger MJ, Rounsevell MDA, Acosta-Michlik L, Leemans R, Schroter D (2006) The vulnerability of ecosystem services to land use change. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:69-85
17. Milaschenko NZ (ed) (1993) Expanded reproduction of soil fertility in intensive farming of the non-chernozem region. Ministry of Science, High School and Technical Policy, Moscow, p 864 (in Russian)
18. Murray B (2004) Overview of agricultural and forestry GHG offsets on the US landscape. choices: the magazine of food, farm and resource issues. Fall 12-15. Available at: http://www.choices-magazine.org/2004-3
19. Nakićenović N, Alcamo J, Davis G, de Vries B, Fenhann J, et al (2000) Special report on emissions scenarios: a special report of working group III of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK
20. Normatives of estimation mineral fertilizer requirements in agriculture (1985) Selkhozkhimia, Moscow, USSR, p 364 (in Russian)
21. Ognivtsev S, Siptitz S (2002) Agroindustrial complex modelling: theory, methodologies, practice. Encyclopaedia of Russian Villages, Moscow, pp 152-161 (in Russian)
22. Paustian K, Babcock B, Kling C, Hatfield JL, Lal R, McCarl B et al (2004) Climate change and Greenhouse Gas Mitigation: challenges and opportunities for agriculture. Council for Agricultural Science and Technology. Task Force Report No. 141
23. Planning Agriculture Handbook (1974) Kolos, Moscow, p 735 (in Russian)
24. Reilly J (ed) (2002) Agriculture: the potential consequences of climate variability and change. Cambridge University Press, New York, NY
25. Rodin AZ, Krylatov AK (ed) (1998) Dynamic of humus balance in cropland of Russian Federation. Agroprogress, Moscow, p 60 (in Russian)
26. Romanenko GA, Tutunnikov AI, SychevVG (1998) Fertilizers, effect, efficiency of application. Reference book. Central Institute of Agrochemical Service in Agriculture, Moscow, p 375 (in Russian)
27. Romanenko IA (2005a) Evaluation of regional ecosystem reproduction potential in long-term perspective. Int Agric J 1:25-27
28. Romanenko IA (2005b) Economic analysis model tool for agricultural complex at national level. Mosc State Agroengineering Univ Bull 3:147-151 (in Russian)
29. Romanenko IA (2005c) Theoretical basis of agro-food national systems' analysis with application mathematical simulation methods. Encyclopaedia of Russian Villages, Moscow, p 127 (in Russian)
30. Romanenkov VA, Sirotenko OD, Shevtsova LK (2001) Modelling carbon balance of the agroecosystems based on the database of long-term experiments. In: Proceedings of the international symposium functions of soils in the geosphere-biosphere systems, Moscow State University Press
31. Romanenkov V, Romanenko I, Sirotenko O, Shevtsova L (2005) Soil carbon sequestration strategy as a component of integrated agricultural sustainability policy under climate change. In: Proceedings of the russian national workshop on research related to the international human dimensions programme on global environment change, Moscow, pp 180-189
32. Romanenkov VA, Smith JU, Smith P, Sirotenko OD, Rukhovich DI, Romanenko IA (2007) Soil organic carbon dynamics of croplands in European Russia: estimates from the "model of humus balance". Reg Environ Change (this issue). doi:10.1007/s10113-007-0031-7
33. Rounsevell MDA, Reginster I, Araújo MB, et al (2006) A coherent set of future land use change scenarios for Europe. Agric Ecosyst Environ 114:57-68
34. Rukhovich DI, Koroleva PV, Vilchevskaya EV, Romanenkov VA, Kolesnikova LG (2007) Constructing a spatially-resolved database for modelling soil organic carbon stocks of croplands in European Russia. Reg Environ Change (this issue). doi:10.1007/ s10113-007-0029-1
35. Schröter D, Cramer W, Leemans R, et al (2005) Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe. Science 310:1333-1337
36. Shevtsova L, Romanenkov V, Sirotenko O, et al (2003) Effect of natural and agricultural factors on long-term organic matter dynamics in arable soddy-podzolic soils - modeling and observation. Geoderma 116:165-189
37. Shishov LL, Komov NV, Rodin AZ, Fridland VM (ed) (2001) Soil cover and land resources of the Russian Federation. Dokuchaev Soil Science Institute, Moscow, p 400 (in Russian)
38. Sirotenko OD (2005) Assessment of global climate change effect on agroclimatic resources and climate-induced productivity of main crops. In: Global manifestations of climate change in agro-industrial sphere. RASKHN, Moscow, pp 24-32 (in Russian)
39. Sirotenko OD, Abashina A, Pavlova V (1995) Sensitivity of the Russian agriculture to changes in climate, atmospheric chemical composition and soil fertility. Meteorologia i Gidrologia 4:107-114 (in Russian)
40. Sirotenko OD, Pavlova V (2003) Assessment climate change effect on agriculture with spatial-temporary analogs method. Meteorologia i Gidrologia 8:89-99 (in Russian)
41. Sirotenko OD, Shevtsova LK, Volodarskaya IV (2002) Modelling of the effect of climatic and agrotechnical factors on the dynamics of organic carbon of ploughed soils. Eurasian Soil Sci 10:1108-1115
42. Smith P (2004a) Carbon sequestration in croplands: the potential in Europe and the global context. Eur J Agron 20:229-236
43. Smith P (2004b) Monitoring and verification of soil carbon changes under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol, Soil Use Manage 20:264-270
44. Smith P, Powlson DS (2003) Sustainability of soil management practices - a global perspective. In: Abbott LK, Murphy DV (eds) Soil biological fertility - a key to sustainable land use in agriculture. Kluwer, Dordrecht, The Netherlands, pp 241-254
45. Smith NW, Desjardins RL, Pattey E (2000) The net flux of carbon from agricultural soils in Canada 1970-2010. Glob Change Biol 6:557-568
46. Smith P, Shevtsova LK, Ashman M et al (2001) Modelling soil organic matter dynamics in the former Soviet Union under decreased inorganic fertilization following Perestroika. In: Donatelli M (ed) Proceedings of 2nd ESA symposium on modelling cropping systems, Florence, Italy, July 2001, ESA, Florence, Italy
47. Smith P, Martino D, Cai Z et al (2007a) Greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture. Philos Trans R Soc B (in press)
48. Smith JU, Smith P, Wattenbach M et al (2007b) Projected changes in cropland soil organic carbon stocks in European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990-2070. Glob Change Biol 13:342-356. doi:10.1111/j.1365-2486.2006.01297.x
49. Smith P, Smith JU, Franko U et al (2007c) Changes in soil organic carbon stocks in the croplands of European Russia and the Ukraine, 1990-2070; comparison of three models and implications for climate mitigation. Reg Environ Change (this issue). doi:10.1007/s10113-007-0028-2
50. Vorobyev SA, Kashtanov AN, Lykov AM et al (1991) Agriculture, Moscow. Agropromizdat, Moscow, p 527 (in Russian)
51. West TO, Post WM (2002) Soil organic carbon sequestration rates by tillage and crop rotation: a global data analysis. Soil Sci Soc Am J 66:1930-1946