Risks and opportunities in Somalia

Survival

Volumn 49, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 5-20

  Stevenson, Jonathan ^a  

^a NONE

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[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 34250769546     PISSN: 00396338     EISSN: 14682699     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1080/00396330701437801     Document Type: Article

References (21)

1. See for example Mark Mazzetti, 'Pentagon Sees Move in Somalia as Blueprint,' New York Times, 13 January 2007.
2. In the late 19 0s and early 1990s, the Ethiopian government and the country's Eritrean population fought a brutal civil war that culminated in Eritrea's secession in 1993. War between the two countries erupted over a border dispute in 199 and continued until 2000, claiming some 70,000 lives. The cold peace since then has been fragile, and reciprocal military mobilisations on the border occurred in late 2005. Although Ethiopia rejected a boundary demarcation determined by an independent commission in April 2002 - on which Eritrea insists - a direct military confrontation has been discouraged by a 2,300-strong UN ceasefire monitoring force that patrols the border. But Somalia's fluid and indeterminate political affairs have provided each country with a proxy to use against the other.
3. See for example Brian Michael Jenkins and Paul K. Davis, Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2002);
4. Robert F. Trager and Dessislava P. Zagorcheva, 'Deterring Terrorism: It Can Be Done,' International Security, vol. 30, no. 3, Winter 2005-06.
5. See generally John L. Hirsch and Robert B. Oakley, Somalia and Operation Restore Hope: Reflections on Peacemaking and Peacekeeping (Washington DC: United States Institute of Peace, 1995).
6. Lawrence Wright, The Looming Tower: Al Qaeda and the Road to 9/11 New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2006).
7. See for example Mark Mazzetti and David Rohde, 'Al Qaeda Chiefs Are Seen to Regain Power,' New York Times, 19 February 2007;
8. Mark Mazzetti, 'Qaeda Seen as Restoring Leadership', New York Times, 2 April 2007.
9. See for example Mark Mazzetti, 'Efforts by C.I.A. Fail in Somalia, Officials Charge,' New York Times, June 2006.
10. See 'Somalia's Islamists: A Threat Revived?' Strategic Comments, vol. 12, no. 5, June 2006.
11. See for example International Crisis Group, Somalia's Islamists, Africa Report No. 100 (Brussels: ICG, 2005).
12. See Ken Menkhaus, Somalia: State Collapse and the Threat of Terrorism Adelphi Paper 364 (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the IISS, 2004), pp. 71-5.
13. Robert F. Worth, 'U.N. Says Somalis Helped Hezbollah Fighters,' New York Times, 15 November 2006. Given that the Israel Defense Forces reported no sightings of Africans or African casualties, however, this conclusion is open to serious doubt.
14. See Andrew McGregor, 'Accuracy of New UN Report on Somalia Doubtful,' Terrorism Focus, vol. 3, no. 45, 21 November 2006, The Jamestown Foundation; http://james town.org/terrorism/news/article. php?articleid=2370213.
15. William Rosenau, 'Al Qaida Recruitment Trends in Kenya and Tanzania', Studies in Conflict and Terrorism, vol. 2, no. 1, January- February 2005.
16. See Jeffrey Gettleman, 'The New Somalia: A Grimly Familiar Rerun,' New York Times, 21 February 2007.
17. 'UN Report Says 10 Nations Violating Arms Embargo in Somalia, Potential High for War,' Associated Press, 15 November 2006.
18. See for example Jonathan Stevenson, 'Irreversible Peace in Northern Ireland?' Survival, vol. 42, no. 3, Autumn 2000.
19. Jeffrey Gettleman, 'In Somalia, Those Who Feed off Anarchy Fuel It', New York Times, 25 April 2007.
20. See generally 'Sudan's Deceptive Transformation,' Strategic Survey 2003/4 (Oxford: Oxford University Press for the IISS, 2004), pp. 321-4. The United States' preoccupation with preserving the integrity of the Naivasha Agreement, of course, arguably afforded Khartoum greater freedom of action than it would otherwise have had in Darfur.
21. See 'US Policy in Sudan: Constraints and Compulsions,' Strategic Comments, vol. 11, no. 9, November 2005.