Modeling low probability/high consequence events: An aviation safety risk model

Proceedings - Annual Reliability and Maintainability Symposium

Volumn , Issue , 2006, Pages 215-221

  Luxhøj, James T ^a,b   Coit, David W ^a,b  

^a RUTGERS UNIVERSITY   (United States)

^b DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRIAL AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING   (United States)

Author keywords

Aviation safety; Bayesian belief network; Risk analysis

Indexed keywords

AVIATION SAFETY; CONTROLLED FLIGHT INTO TERRAIN (CFIT);

ACCIDENT PREVENTION; BAYESIAN NETWORKS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; PRODUCT DESIGN; RISK ANALYSIS;

AIRCRAFT ACCIDENTS;

EID: 34250163214     PISSN: 0149144X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: 10.1109/RAMS.2006.1677377     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (20)

1. Ale, B.J.M., L.J. Bellamy, R.M. Cooke, L.H.J. Goossens, A.R. Hale, D. Kurowicks, A.L.C. Roelen, and E. Smith (2005). "Development of a Causal Model for Air Transport Safety," Proceedings of the European Safety and Reliability Conference, Gdansk, Poland, pp. 37-44.
2. Aviation Safety and Security Program (2000). Program Plan: Aeronautics Technology Theme.
3. http://avsp.larc.nasa.gov/pdfs/Program_Plan_Jan04.pdf
4. nd ed., Boston: Duxbury Press.
5. GP Express Airlines, Inc. (1992). Controlled Collision With Terrain, Flight 861 A Beechcraft C99, N118GP Anniston, Alabama June 8, 1992. NTSB Report Number: AAR-93-03, adopted on 3/2/1993.
6. Greenhut, N., D. Andres, and J.T. Luxhøj (2004). "Graphical Enhancements to the Executive Information System (EIS) for the Aviation System Risk Model (ASRM)," Proceedings of the AIAA's 4th Annual Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Technical Forum, Chicago, IL, September 20-22.
7. Grossi, P., P. Kleindorfer, and H. Kunreuther (1999). "The Impact of Uncertainty in Managing Seismic Risk: The Case of Earthquake Frequency and Structural Vulnerability," Financial Institution Center, Technical Paper #99-23, The Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania.
8. Hobbs, B.F., J.F. Koonce, and A.B. Locci (2001). "Modeling and Multiobjective Risk Decision Tools for Assessment and Management of Great Lakes Ecosystems," National Center for Environmental Research and Quality Assurance, US Environmental Protection Agency, USEAP STAR Grant# R825150, February.
9. Jensen, F. V. (1995). Introduction to Bayesian Networks, University-College London Press, UK.
10. Luxhøj, J.T., A. Choopavang, and D.N. Arendt (2001). "Risk Assessment of Organizational Factors in Aviation Systems," Air Traffic Control Quarterly, Vol. 9, No. 3, pp. 135-174. (Special Issue on Flight Safety)
11. Luxhøj, J.T. (2003). "Probabilistic Causal Analysis for System Safety Risk Assessments in Commercial Air Transport," Proceedings of the Workshop on Investigating and Reporting of Incidents and Accidents (IRIA), pp. 17-38, Williamsburg, VA, September 16-19.
12. Luxhøj, J.T. (2005), "Model-Based Reasoning for Aviation Safety Risk Assessments," SAE World Aerospace Congress, Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas, October 3-6, 2005 (to appear).
13. Luxhøj, J.T., M. Jalil, and S.M. Jones (2003). "A Risk-Based Decision Support Tool for Evaluating Aviation Technology Integration in the National Airspace System," Proceedings of the AIAA's 3rd Annual Aviation Technology, Integration, and Operations (ATIO) Technical Forum, Denver, Colorado, November 17-19.
14. Miyagi, M (2005). Serious Accidents and Human Factors - Breaking the Chain of Events Leading to an Accident: Lessons Learned from the Aviation Industry, Reston, VA: AIAA.
15. NASA Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) Product Dictionary (2002), February.
16. OFCM: Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research (2001). Proceedings of the Forum on Risk Management and Assessments of Natural Hazards, Washington, DC, February 5-6.
17. Phimister, J.R., V.M. Bier, and H.C. Kunreuther, (2004). (Eds) Accident Precursor Analysis and Management-Reducing Technological Risk Through Diligence, Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.
18. Reason, J. (1995). "A System Approach to Organizational Error," Ergonomics, Vol. 38, No. 8, pp. 1708-1721.
19. Waller, R.A. and V.T. Covellom (1984). Low-Probability High-Consequence Risk Analysis: Issues, Methods, and Case Studies, New York: Plenum Press.
20. Wiegmann, D.A. and S.A. Shappell (2003). A Human Error Approach to Aviation Accident Analysis: The Human Factors Analysis and Classification System, England: Ashgate Publishing Limited.