Assessing the role of basic control measures, antivirals and vaccine in curtailing pandemic influenza: Scenarios for the US, UK and the Netherlands

Journal of the Royal Society Interface

Volumn 4, Issue 14, 2007, Pages 505-521

  Nuno M ^a   Chowell, G ^b   Gumel, A B ^c  

^a HARVARD SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH   (United States)

^b CENTER FOR NONLINEAR STUDIES   (United States)

^c UNIVERSITY OF MANITOBA   (Canada)

Author keywords

Antivirals; Basic control measures; Basic reproduction number, compartmental model; Influenza; Pandemic; Vaccination

Indexed keywords

ANTIVIRUS AGENT; VACCINE;

ARTICLE; EPIDEMIOLOGICAL DATA; HEALTH CARE PLANNING; INFECTION CONTROL; INFECTION RISK; INFLUENZA; MATHEMATICAL MODEL; MORBIDITY; NETHERLANDS; PANDEMIC; PROPHYLAXIS; UNITED KINGDOM; UNITED STATES; VACCINATION;

AVES;

EID: 34249797897     PISSN: 17425689     EISSN: 17425662     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2006.0186     Document Type: Article

References (36)

1. Arino, J., Brauer, F., van den Driessche, P., Watmough, J. & Wu, J. 2006 Simple models for containment of a pandemic. J. R. Soc. Interface 3, 453-457. (doi:10.1098/rsif.2006.0112)
2. Brauer, F. 2006 Some simple epidemic models. Math. Biosci. Eng. 3, 1-15.
3. Blitz, S. G. 2000 Developments on the care of influenza patients: priorities and perspectives. JCOM 7, 63-72.
4. Butler, D. 2006 Disease surveillance needs a revolution. Nature 440, 6-7. (doi:10.1038/440006a)
5. Center for Disease Control and Prevention 2003 Prevention and control of influenza: recommendations of the advisory committee on immunization practices (ACIP). MMWR 52, 1-34. [No. RR-8]
6. Chowell, G., Ammon, C. E., Hengartner, N. W. & Hyman, J. M. 2006 Transmission dynamics of the great influenza pandemic of 1918 in Geneva, Switzerland: assessing the effects of hypothetical interventions. J. Theor. Biol. 241, 193-204. (doi:10.1016/j.jtbi.2005.11.026)
7. Cox, R. J., Brokstad, K. A. & Ogra, P. 2004 Influenza virus: immunity and vaccination Strategies. Comparison of the immune response to inactivated and live, attenuated influenza vaccines. Scand. J. Immunol. 59, 1-15. (doi:10. 1111/j.0300-9475.2004.01382.x)
8. Demicheli, V., Rivetti, D., Deeks, J. J. & Jefferson, T. O. 2004 Vaccines for preventing influenza in healthy adults. Cochrane Database Syst. Rev. 3, CD001269.
9. Department of Health Publications Pandemic Flu: UK Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan, October 2005. http://www.dh.gov.uk/PolicyAndGuidance/ Emergency-Planning/PandemicFlu/fs/en, Accessed on June 1, 2006.
10. 0 in models for infectious diseases in heterogeneous populations. J. Math. Biol. 28, 365-382. (doi:10.1007/BF00178324)
11. Ferguson, N. M., Cummings, D. A. T., Cauchemez, S., Fraser, C., Riley, S., Meeyai, A., Iamsirithaworn, S. & Burke, D. S. 2005 Strategies for containing an emerging influenza pandemic in Southeast Asia. Nature 437, 209-214. (doi:10. 1038/nature04017)
12. Ferguson, N. M., Cummings, D. A. T., Fraser, C., Cajka, J. C., Cooley, P. C. & Burke, D. S. 2006 Strategies for mitigating an influenza pandemic. Nature (Letters) 442, 448-452. (doi:10.1038/nature04795)
13. Gani, R., Hughes, H., Fleming, D., Griffin, T., Medlock, J. & Leach, S. 2005 Potential impact of antiviral drug use during influenza pandemic. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 11, 1355-1362.
14. Gerdil, C. 2003 The annual production cycle for influenza vaccine. Vaccine 21, 1776-1779. (doi:10.1016/S0264-410X(03)00071-9)
15. Germann, T. C., Kadau, K., Longini, I. M. & Macken, C. A. 2006 Mitigation strategies for pandemic influenza in the United States. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 103, 5935-5940. (doi:10.1073/pnas.0601266103)
16. Goodwin, K., Viboud, C. & Simonsen, L. 2005 Antibody response to influenza vaccination in the elderly: a quantitative review. Vaccine 24, 1159-1169. (doi:10. 1016/j.vaccine.2005.08.105)
17. Jefferson, T., Smith, S., Demicheli, V., Harnden, A., Rivetti, A. & DiPietrantonj, C. 2005 Assessment of the efficacy and effectiveness of influenza vaccines in healthy children: systematic review. Lancet 365, 773-780.
18. Longini, I. M. & Halloran, M. E. 2005 Strategy for distribution of influenza vaccine to high-risk groups and children. Am. J. Epidemiol. 161, 303-306. (doi:10.1093/ aje/kwi053)
19. Longini, I. M., Halloran, M. E., Nizam, A. & Yang, Y. 2004 Containing the pandemic influenza with antiviral agents. Am. J. Epidemiol. 159, 623-633. (doi:10.1093/aje/kwh092)
20. Longini, I. M., Nizam, A., Xu, S., Ungchusak, K., Hanshaoworakul, W., Cummings, D. A. T. & Halloran, M. E. 2005 Containing pandemic influenza at the source. Science 309, 1083-1087. (doi.10.1126/science.1115717)
21. Meltzer, M. I., Cox, N. J. & Fukuda, K. 1999 The economic impact of pandemic influenza in the United States: priorities for intervention. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 5, 659-671.
22. Mills, C. E., Robins, J. M. & Lipsitch, M. 2004 Tramsmissibility of 1918 pandemic influenza. Nature 432, 904-906. (doi:10.1038/ nature03063)
23. Monto, A. S. 2003 The role of antivirals in the control of influenza. Vaccine 21, 1796-1800. (doi:10.1016/S0264-410X(03)00075-6)
24. Moscona, A. 2005 Neuraminidase inhibitors for influenza. N. Engl. J. Med. 353, 1363-1373. (doi:10.1056/NEJMra050740)
25. National Strategy for pandemic Influenza Implementation Plan, Homeland Security Councial, May 2006.
26. Nicholson, K. G., Webster, R. G. & Hay, A. J. 1998 Textbook of influenza. Oxford, UK: Blackwell Science Ltd.
27. Oxford, J. S., Novelli, P., Sefton, A. & Lambkin, R. 2002 New millennium antivirals against pandemic and epidemic influenza: the neuraminidase inhibitors. Antivir. Chem. Chemother. 13, 205-217.
28. Potter, C. W. & Oxford, J. S. 1979 Determinants of immunity to influenza infection in man. Br. Med. Bull. 35, 69-75.
29. Stuart-Harris, C. 1979 Epidemiology of influenza in man. Br. Med. Bull. 35, 3-8.
30. Stiver, G. 2003 The treatment of influenza with antiviral drugs. CMAJ 168, 49-56.
31. The World Factbook http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/ factbook/index.html. Accessed on June 1, 2006.
32. Thompson, W. W., Shay, D. K., Weintraub, E., Brammer, L., Bridges, C. B., Cox, N. J. & Fukuda, K. 2004 Influenza-associated hospitalizations in the United States. JAMA 292, 1333-1340. (doi:10.1001/jama.292.11.1333)
33. Uscher-Pines, L., Omer, S. B., Barnett, D. J., Burke, T. A. & Balicer, R. D. 2006 Priority setting for pandemic influenza: an analysis of national preparedness plans. PLoS Med. 3, 1721-1727. (doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030436)
34. van den Driessche, P. & Watmough, J. 2002 Reproduction numbers and sub-threshold endemic equilibria for compartmental models of disease tranmission. Math. Biosci. 180, 29-48. (doi:10.1016/S0025-5564(02) 00108-6)
35. van Genugten, M. L., Heijnen, M. L. & Jager, J. C. 2002 Scenario analysis of the expected number of hospitalisations and deaths due to pandemic influenza in the Netherlands, RIVM report 282701002
36. van Genugten, M. L., Heijnen, M. L. & Jager, J. C. 2003 Pandemic influenza and healthcare demand in the Netherlands: scenario analysis. Emerg. Infect. Dis. 9, 531-538.