The high water mark of Islamist politics? The case of Yemen

Middle East Journal

Volumn 61, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 240-260

  Longley, April ^a  

^a GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

AUTHORITARIANISM; ELECTORAL GEOGRAPHY; ETHNOPOLITICS; GRASSROOTS LEVEL; ISLAMISM; PARTY POLITICS; POLITICAL SYSTEM;

ASIA; EURASIA; MIDDLE EAST; YEMEN;

EID: 34249734697     PISSN: 00263141     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.3751/61.2.13     Document Type: Article

References (72)

1. For background information on political parties in general, see Manfred Wenner, "Yemen," in Frank Tauchau, ed., Political Parties of the Middle East and North Affica (Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1994), pp. 611-639.
2. For more information on Islah, see Janine Clark, "Islamist Women in Yemen: Informal Nodes of Activism,"
3. and also Jillian Schwedler, "The Islah Party in Yemen: Political Opportunities and Coalition Building in a Transitional Polity," both in Quintan Wiktorowicz, ed., Islamic Activism: A Social Movement Theory Approach (Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press, 2004), pp. 164-84 and 205-228;
4. Ludwig Stiftl, "The Yemeni Islamists in the Process of Democratization," in Remy Leveau, Franck Mermier and Udo Steinbach, eds., Le Yemen Contemporain [Contemporary Yemen] (Paris: Karthala, 1999), pp. 247-266;
5. and Paul Dresch and Bernard Haykel, "Stereotypes and Political Styles: Islamists and Tribesfolk in Yemen," International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol. 27, No. 4 (November 1995), pp. 405-476.
6. For background on elections, see: Sheila Carapico, "Pluralism, Polarization, and Popular Politics in Yemen," in Rex Brynen, Bahgat Korany, and Paul Noble, eds., Political Liberalization and Democratization in the Arab World, Volume 2 (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 1995-1998), pp. 241-266;
7. Jillian Schwedler, "Democratization in the Arab World? Yemen's Aborted Opening," Journal of Democracy, Vol. 13, No. 4 (October 2002) pp. 48-55;
8. and Sheila Carapico, "How Yemen's Ruling Party Secured an Electoral Landslide," Middle East Report Online, May 16, 2003, http:// www.merip.org/mero/mero051603.html.
9. For an overview of international media coverage see IFES Election Guide, "Yemen - News Archive," http://www.electionguide.org/ country-news.php?ID=237.
10. For scholarly analysis, see: Gregory Johnsen, "The Elections Yemen was Supposed to Have," Middle East Report Online, October 3, 2006, http://www.merip.org/mero/mero100306.html
11. and Gregory Johnsen, "Salih's Road to Reelection," Middle East Report Online, January 13, 2006, http://www.merip.org/mero/ mero011306.html.
12. Qat is a mild narcotic leaf. Yemenis chew qat during social gatherings, where they discuss politics, business, and other social issues.
13. The JMP is a coalition of five opposition parties: Isiah, the Yemeni Socialist Party (YSP), the Nasirist Popular Unionist Party, al-Haqq, and the Union of Yemeni Popular Forces (UPF). Isiah is the group's most powerful member and the only party with strong national appeal. The second strongest player in the coalition is the YSP. The YSP is the party of the former socialist South Yemen. It was a strong political player immediately following unification in 1990, but the civil war of 1994 severely weakened its political influence. The three remaining parties have little to no popular base. The last two, al-Haqq and the UPF, are small Zaydi (a brand of Shi'a Islam) parties. Al-Haqq has a small following in north Yemen, particularly in Sa'ada, and the UPF is mostly a party of sayyids (those who claim descent from the Prophet) and intellectuals.
14. Supreme Commission for Elections and Referendum, "Home - English site," http://www.scer.org.ye/enghsh/indexe.htm, January 12, 2007.
15. European Union Election Observation Mission Yemen 2006, "Final Report," p. 33, http://www.eueom-ye.org/Final_reports.html, January 5, 2007.
16. See Figure 1 at the end of this article for local council election results. Figure 1 is based on results published by The Supreme Committee for Elections and Referendum, "The Detailed Election Results of the Presidential and Local Council Elections 2006," http:// www.scer.org.ye/arabic/rewult2006.htm, January 12, 2007. The SCER published results in PDF format with no overall tallies for the percentage won by each party or the percent reporting/non-reporting for each district and sub-district. Figure 1 clarifies patterns obscured by the original reporting format.
17. These figures add up to 100.01% due to rounding.
18. European Union Election Observation Mission Yemen 2006, "Final Report," p. 33 and Saddam al-Ashmori, "Elections results claimed rigged in Amran," Yemen Times, Issue 984, Vol. 14, September 25-27, 2006.
19. Urban areas tended to be more easily assessable and closely monitored by international observers. Amana al-'Asima, which corresponds roughly to the city of Sana'a, and Aden were particularly well observed by internationals. Both Amana al-'Asima and Aden had 100% reporting rates and both overwhelmingly voted for the GPC, despite expectations that they would be areas of intense competition.
20. "JMP accepts vote, denies deal with authorities," Yemen Times, Issue 985, Vol. 14, September 18-October 1, 2006.
21. Interview by author with a source close to the President, Sana'a, early October 2006.
22. 'Abdullah al-Aqwa, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, October 4, 2006.
23. Each of the examples mentioned were commonly discussed topics in Sana'a qat chews in the months leading up to the elections (especially among the opposition leaders and journalists).
24. Dr. Saadaldeen Talib, Qat Chew at 'Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani's home, Sana'a, Yemen, October 11, 2006. Dr. Talib was a former parliamentarian and he is currently a program manager with the National Democratic Institute in Sana'a. He personally received a bonus check, through direct deposit, prior to the elections. He contrasted the direct deposit into his account with the usually cumbersome process of receiving payment from the central government. 'Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani is a Yemeni businessman and political commentator. He is the nephew of the famous technocrat/politician and former Prime Minister of Yemen, 'Abd al-Karim al-Iryani.
25. Saddam al-Ashmori, "Election results claimed rigged in Amran," Yemen Times, Issue 984, Vol. 14, September 25-27, 2006.
26. Hameed al-Ahmar, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, October 8, 2006.
27. Bashra Bashrahill, interview by author, Aden, Yemen, September 12, 2006. Bashrahill is the editor of al-Ayyam newspaper.
28. European Union Election Observation Mission Yemen 2006, "Final Report," p. 1.
29. European Union Election Observation Mission Yemen 2006, "Final Report:" pp. 17-8.
30. Hameed al-Ahmar, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, October 8, 2006.
31. Shaykh Shawqi Sanhani, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, September 30, 2006.
32. Shaykh Shawqi Sanhani, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, September 30, 2006.
33. Yasser al-Mayasi, "Saleh attacks opposition as campaigning reaches climax," Yemen Times, Issue 979, Vol. 14, August 7-September 10, 2006;
34. "JMP: GPC's new allies are yesterday's terrorists," Yemen Times, Issue 982, Vol. 14, September 18-20, 2006.
35. For an explanation of the "first past the post" system, see Marsha Pripstein Posusney, "Multiparty Elections in the Arab World: Election Rules and Opposition Responses," in Marsha Pripstein Posusney and Michele Angrist, eds., Authoritarianism in the Middle East: Regimes and Resistance (Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers, 2005).
36. Yasser al-Mayasi, "Saleh attacks opposition as campaigning reaches climax," Yemen Times, Issue 979, Vol. 14, August 7-September 10, 2006;
37. "JMP: GPC's new allies are yesterday's terrorists," Yemen Times, Issue 982, Vol. 14, September 18-20, 2006.
38. Zindani is a member of Islah's Shura Council and a prominent leader of the Salafi movement in Yemen. Salih won Zindani's tacit support after his notorious trip to Iman University only weeks before the elections. During the visit, the President promised Zindani's impoverished university services from the state and he pledged government jobs to the graduates. Given Zindani's tenuous status as a wanted international terrorist by the US and Britain, he needs Salih's protection, and could not refuse the olive branch.
39. 'Abdullah al-Ahmar plays a complicated role in Yemeni politics. He is the head of Islah, while at the same time he is the Shaykh of Shaykhs for the Hashid tribal confederation. In other words, he is the President's tribal shaykh at the same time he is head of the main opposition party. 'Abdullah has played a critical role in creating and maintaining the Salih regime, and over time he and his sons have benefited financially from networks of political and economic privilege (for more information on 'Abdullah's family, political, and financial connections to Salih, see Paul Dresch, A History of Modern Yemen (Cambridge and New York: Cambridge University Press, 2000). 'Abdullah is an old hand in Yemen politics, a master at compromise, and deeply entrenched in networks of power.
40. Bashra Bashrahill, interview by author, Aden, Yemen, September 12, 2006.
41. 'Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani, Qat Chew, 'Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani's home, Sana'a, Yemen, October 11, 2006.
42. Nabeel al-Sofe, Qat Chew at 'Ali Saif's Political Forum, September 23, 2006. The Political Forum is a Yemeni NGO established by 'Ali Saif to assess and promote political development in Yemen. 'Ali Saif is a businessman and former member of the Nasirist party. The Forum holds a qat chew at Saif's home once a week. It is frequented by prominent opposition leaders, journalists, intellectuals, and foreign diplomats.
43. It should be noted that while the majority of the Yemeni population is Shafi'i (a form of Sunni Islam), Zaydis constitute the bulk of the population around Sana'a and to the north of the capital. Only a small group of Zaydis belong to al-Haqq or the UPF, and as a group, they are by no means marginal to Yemeni politics. In fact, Zaydis have traditionally ruled northern Yemen. President Salih is Zaydi, as are two major tribal confederations, Bakil and Hashid. For more information on the role of Zaydis in Yemeni politics see Dresch, A History of Modern Yemen and Bernard Haykel, "Rebellion, Migration or Consultative Democracy? The Zaydis and their detractors in Yemen," in Remy, Mermier, and Steinbach, eds., Le Yemen Contemporary [Contemporary Yemen], pp. 192-201.
44. For further information on the Huthi rebellion, see Sarah Phillips, "Cracks in the Yemeni System, Middle East Report Online, July 28, 2005.
45. Murad Zafir, Qat Chew at 'Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani's home, Sana'a, Yemen, October 11, 2006.
46. Nabeel al-Sofe, Qat Chew at 'Ali Saif's Political Forum, Sana'a, Yemen, September 23, 2006.
47. Muhammad Abu Lahoum, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, February 18, 2006.
48. Yasser al-'Awadi, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, October 3, 2006.
49. Sadik Abu Ras, Faysal Abu Ras, and 'Abd al-Salam Ahmed al-Dhulai, Qat Chew, Sana'a, Yemen, September 28, 2006.
50. Sadik Abu Ras is a shaykh from al-Jawf and one of the most powerful shaykhs in the Bakil tribal confederation (there are three main confederations in Yemen: Bakil, Hashid, and Madhhij. For more iormation on tribal structure, see Paul Dresch, Tribes, Government, and History in Yemen (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1989). He is a member of the GPC and the current Minister of Local Affairs. Faysal is Sadik's brother and is also a prominent shaykh from al-Jawf. Faysal recently resigned from the GPC and from Parliament because "he was frustrated with corruption." Al-Dhulai is a Deputy Minister in the Ministry of Local Affairs.
51. Qat Chew at Markes al-Ro'a [Markaz al-Ru'a] [the Visions Center], Sana'a, Yemen, October 3, 2006. The Visions Center is an NGO established to strengthen the electoral system in Yemen. At this particular Qat Chew, all 10-15 men present were from the GPC. There were two members from the General Committee and several from the Permanent Committee in attendance.
52. Yasser al-'Awadi, Qat Chew at Markes al-Ro'a, Sana'a, Yemen, October 3, 2006.
53. Faysal Abu Ras, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, September 26, 2006 and Qat Chew at 'Ali Saif's Political Forum, Sana'a, Yemen, September 23, 2006.
54. Taha Hamdani, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, August 26, 2006.
55. Taha Hamdani, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, October 3, 2006.
56. Islah is particularly strong in Sana'a, 'Amran, and "middle Yemen" (Ibb, Ta'iz, and Dala'a). It also has a growing base in Hadramawt. The YSP had a chance of winning seats in the former South, given the frustration and feelings of marginalization experienced by Southerners since the civil war. Even al-Haqq had a chance of winning local council seats in Sa'ada. Dr. Saadaleen Talib suggested that Islah should have started with a minimum of 30% of the popular vote. (Interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, October 11, 2006). 'Abd al-Hamid Mulhi, the Director of the Research and Strategic Studies Center in the Presidential Office, claimed that their office did a survey before the elections which suggested the JMP would win half of the local council seats nation wide. Qat Chew at 'Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani's home, Sana'a, Yemen, October 11, 2006).
57. Qat Chew, 'Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani's home, Sana'a, Yemen, October 11, 2006.
58. Qat Chew, 'Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani's home, Sana'a, Yemen, October 11, 2006.
59. Shaykh Shawqi Sanhani, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, September 30, 2006.
60. Sami Ghalib, Qat Chew at 'Ali Saif's Political Forum, Sana'a, Yemen, September 23, 2006.
61. Yassin Nu'man, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, October 7, 2006.
62. Phone conversation by author with a political independent living in Aden, October 2, 2006.
63. Interview by author with a prominent member of Islah, Sana'a, Yemen, early October 2006.
64. Yassin Nu'man, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, October 7, 2006.
65. Phone conversation between the author and a GPC supporter who worked on the GPC campaign in the al-Bayda governorate, September 26, 2006.
66. Qat Chew, Mahwit City, Yemen, August 22, 2006.
67. Faysal Abu Ras, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, September 26, 2006.
68. Conversation between a taxi driver and the author, Sana'a, Yemen, October 13, 2006.
69. Interview by author with prominent member of Islah, Sana'a, Yemen, August 9, 2006.
70. Nabeel al-Sofe, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, October 11, 2006.
71. Mafoodh Shammack, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, August 6, 2006. Shammack, who is the head of the Sana'a Chamber and a member of Islah, acknowledged this pattern and pointed out that businessmen join the GPC because it helps their business run smoothly. In contrast, they join or remain with Islah to receive friendship and respect. Also validated by 'Abd al-Ghani al-Iryani, e-mail correspondence with author, March 18, 2007.
72. Mahfoodh Shammakh, interview by author, Sana'a, Yemen, August 8, 2006.