메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 584, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 443-454

Predicting the effect of climate change on temperate shallow lakes with the ecosystem model PCLake

Author keywords

Alternative stable states; Critical nutrient loading; Cyanobacteria; Mismatch; Temperature

Indexed keywords

ASYMPTOTIC ANALYSIS; CLIMATE CHANGE; EARTH (PLANET); ECOSYSTEMS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; NUTRIENTS; TURBIDITY;

EID: 34249089219     PISSN: 00188158     EISSN: 15735117     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s10750-007-0600-2     Document Type: Conference Paper
Times cited : (159)

References (57)
  • 1
    • 0030303532 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Possible impact of mild winters on zooplankton succession in eutrophic lakes of the Atlantic European area
    • Adrian, R. & R. Deneke, 1996. Possible impact of mild winters on zooplankton succession in eutrophic lakes of the Atlantic European area. Freshwater Biology 36: 757-770.
    • (1996) Freshwater Biology , vol.36 , pp. 757-770
    • Adrian, R.1    Deneke, R.2
  • 2
    • 0028831464 scopus 로고
    • A long-term study of the Heiligensee (1975-1992). Evidence for effects of climatic change on the dynamics of eutrophied lake ecosystems
    • Adrian, R., R. Deneke, U. Mischke, R. Stellmacher & P. Lederer, 1995. A long-term study of the Heiligensee (1975-1992). Evidence for effects of climatic change on the dynamics of eutrophied lake ecosystems. Archiv für Hydrobiologie 133: 315-337.
    • (1995) Archiv für Hydrobiologie , vol.133 , pp. 315-337
    • Adrian, R.1    Deneke, R.2    Mischke, U.3    Stellmacher, R.4    Lederer, P.5
  • 3
    • 0032765109 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of ice duration on plankton succession during spring in a shallow polymictic lake
    • Adrian, R., N. Walz, T. Hintze, S. Hoeg & R. Rusche, 1999. Effects of ice duration on plankton succession during spring in a shallow polymictic lake. Freshwater Biology 41: 621-632.
    • (1999) Freshwater Biology , vol.41 , pp. 621-632
    • Adrian, R.1    Walz, N.2    Hintze, T.3    Hoeg, S.4    Rusche, R.5
  • 4
    • 0028792701 scopus 로고
    • Fitting the dynamic model PCLake to a multi-lake survey through Bayesian statistics
    • Aldenberg, T., J. H. Janse & P. R. G. Kramer, 1995. Fitting the dynamic model PCLake to a multi-lake survey through Bayesian statistics. Ecological Modelling 78: 83-99.
    • (1995) Ecological Modelling , vol.78 , pp. 83-99
    • Aldenberg, T.1    Janse, J.H.2    Kramer, P.R.G.3
  • 5
    • 0000791784 scopus 로고
    • Comparative influences of light and temperature on the growth and metabolism of selected submersed fresh-water macrophytes
    • Barko, J. W. & R. M. Smart, 1981. Comparative influences of light and temperature on the growth and metabolism of selected submersed fresh-water macrophytes. Ecological Monographs 51: 219-235.
    • (1981) Ecological Monographs , vol.51 , pp. 219-235
    • Barko, J.W.1    Smart, R.M.2
  • 6
    • 0002263503 scopus 로고
    • Can Daphnia prevent a blue-green algal bloom in hypertrophic lakes? a laboratory test
    • Dawidowicz, P., Z. M. Gliwicz & R. D. Gulati, 1988. Can Daphnia prevent a blue-green algal bloom in hypertrophic lakes? A laboratory test. Limnologica (Berlin) 19: 21-26.
    • (1988) Limnologica (Berlin) , vol.19 , pp. 21-26
    • Dawidowicz, P.1    Gliwicz, Z.M.2    Gulati, R.D.3
  • 7
    • 0032707549 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Review: Biomanipulation of fish assemblages as a lake restoration technique
    • Drenner, R. W. & K. D. Hambright, 1999. Review: biomanipulation of fish assemblages as a lake restoration technique. Archiv für Hydrobiologie 146: 129-165.
    • (1999) Archiv für Hydrobiologie , vol.146 , pp. 129-165
    • Drenner, R.W.1    Hambright, K.D.2
  • 8
    • 27744433744 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Combining a regional climate model with a phytoplankton community model to predict future changes in phytoplankton in lakes
    • Elliott, J. A., S. J. Thackeray, C. Huntingford & R. G. Jones, 2005. Combining a regional climate model with a phytoplankton community model to predict future changes in phytoplankton in lakes. Freshwater Biology 50: 1404-1411.
    • (2005) Freshwater Biology , vol.50 , pp. 1404-1411
    • Elliott, J.A.1    Thackeray, S.J.2    Huntingford, C.3    Jones, R.G.4
  • 9
    • 0033885959 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate-driven changes in spring plankton dynamics and the sensitivity of shallow polymictic lakes to the North Atlantic Oscillation
    • Gerten, D. & R. Adrian, 2000. Climate-driven changes in spring plankton dynamics and the sensitivity of shallow polymictic lakes to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnology and Oceanography 45: 1058-1066.
    • (2000) Limnology and Oceanography , vol.45 , pp. 1058-1066
    • Gerten, D.1    Adrian, R.2
  • 10
    • 0035067477 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Differences in the persistency of the North Atlantic Oscillation signal among lakes
    • Gerten, D. & R. Adrian, 2001. Differences in the persistency of the North Atlantic Oscillation signal among lakes. Limnology and Oceanography 46: 448-455.
    • (2001) Limnology and Oceanography , vol.46 , pp. 448-455
    • Gerten, D.1    Adrian, R.2
  • 11
    • 0347979785 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of climate warming, North Atlantic Oscillation, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation on thermal conditions and plankton dynamics in northern hemispheric lakes
    • Gerten, D. & R. Adrian, 2002 Effects of climate warming, North Atlantic Oscillation, and El Nino-Southern Oscillation on thermal conditions and plankton dynamics in northern hemispheric lakes. TheScientificWorldJournal 2: 586-606.
    • (2002) TheScientificWorldJournal , vol.2 , pp. 586-606
    • Gerten, D.1    Adrian, R.2
  • 12
    • 0025205614 scopus 로고
    • Food thresholds in Daphnia species in the absence and presence of blue-green filaments
    • Gliwicz, Z. M. & W. Lampert, 1990. Food thresholds in Daphnia species in the absence and presence of blue-green filaments. Ecology 71: 691-702.
    • (1990) Ecology , vol.71 , pp. 691-702
    • Gliwicz, Z.M.1    Lampert, W.2
  • 13
    • 0020469773 scopus 로고
    • The zooplankton: Its community structure, food and feeding, and role in the ecosystem of Lake Vechten
    • Gulati, R. D., K. Siewertsen & G. Postema, 1982. The zooplankton: its community structure, food and feeding, and role in the ecosystem of Lake Vechten. Hydrobiologia 95: 127-163.
    • (1982) Hydrobiologia , vol.95 , pp. 127-163
    • Gulati, R.D.1    Siewertsen, K.2    Postema, G.3
  • 14
    • 0037098828 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Lakes in the Netherlands, their origin, eutrophication and restoration: State-of-the-art review
    • Gulati, R. D. & E. Van Donk, 2002. Lakes in the Netherlands, their origin, eutrophication and restoration: state-of-the-art review. Hydrobiologia 478: 73-106.
    • (2002) Hydrobiologia , vol.478 , pp. 73-106
    • Gulati, R.D.1    Van Donk, E.2
  • 16
    • 0037160479 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Application of a model to predict cyanobacterial growth patterns in response to climatic change at Farmoor Reservoir, Oxfordshire, UK
    • Howard, A. & M. P. Easthope, 2002. Application of a model to predict cyanobacterial growth patterns in response to climatic change at Farmoor Reservoir, Oxfordshire, UK. Science of the Total Environment 282: 459-469.
    • (2002) Science of the Total Environment , vol.282 , pp. 459-469
    • Howard, A.1    Easthope, M.P.2
  • 17
    • 8544273216 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A model of nutrient dynamics in shallow lakes in relation to multiple stable states
    • Janse, J. H., 1997. A model of nutrient dynamics in shallow lakes in relation to multiple stable states. Hydrobiologia 342/343: 1-8.
    • (1997) Hydrobiologia , vol.342-343 , pp. 1-8
    • Janse, J.H.1
  • 19
    • 0027079812 scopus 로고
    • A mathematical model of the phosphorus cycle in Lake Loosdrecht and simulation of additional measures
    • Janse, J. H., T. Aldenberg & P. R. G. Kramer, 1992. A mathematical model of the phosphorus cycle in Lake Loosdrecht and simulation of additional measures. Hydrobiologia 233: 119-136.
    • (1992) Hydrobiologia , vol.233 , pp. 119-136
    • Janse, J.H.1    Aldenberg, T.2    Kramer, P.R.G.3
  • 20
    • 0028993299 scopus 로고
    • Modelling nutrient cycles in relation to food-web structure in a biomanipulated shallow lake
    • Janse, J. H. & L. Van Liere, 1995a. Modelling nutrient cycles in relation to food-web structure in a biomanipulated shallow lake. Netherlands Journal of Aquatic Ecology 29: 67-79.
    • (1995) Netherlands Journal of Aquatic Ecology , vol.29 , pp. 67-79
    • Janse, J.H.1    Van Liere, L.2
  • 21
    • 0029085743 scopus 로고
    • PCLake - A modeling tool for the evaluation of lake restoration scenarios
    • Janse, J. H. & L. Van Liere, 1995b. PCLake - a modeling tool for the evaluation of lake restoration scenarios. Water Science and Technology 31: 371-374.
    • (1995) Water Science and Technology , vol.31 , pp. 371-374
    • Janse, J.H.1    Van Liere, L.2
  • 22
    • 0027060276 scopus 로고
    • Importance of temperature, nitrate, and pH for phosphate release from aerobic sediments of four shallow, eutrophic lakes
    • Jensen, H. S. & F. O. Andersen, 1992. Importance of temperature, nitrate, and pH for phosphate release from aerobic sediments of four shallow, eutrophic lakes. Limnology and Oceanography 37: 577-589.
    • (1992) Limnology and Oceanography , vol.37 , pp. 577-589
    • Jensen, H.S.1    Andersen, F.O.2
  • 25
    • 0029796506 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Linking planktonic diatoms and climate change in the large lakes of the Yellowstone ecosystem using resource theory
    • Kilham, S. S., E. C. Theriot & S. C. Fritz, 1996. Linking planktonic diatoms and climate change in the large lakes of the Yellowstone ecosystem using resource theory. Limnology and Oceanography 41: 1052-1062.
    • (1996) Limnology and Oceanography , vol.41 , pp. 1052-1062
    • Kilham, S.S.1    Theriot, E.C.2    Fritz, S.C.3
  • 27
    • 0036318345 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Effects of temperature and oxygen availability on greenhouse gas and nutrient dynamics in sediment of a eutrophic mid-boreal lake
    • Liikanen, A., T. Murtoniemi, H. Tanskanen, T. Vaisanen & P. J. Martikainen, 2002. Effects of temperature and oxygen availability on greenhouse gas and nutrient dynamics in sediment of a eutrophic mid-boreal lake. Biogeochemistry 59: 269-286.
    • (2002) Biogeochemistry , vol.59 , pp. 269-286
    • Liikanen, A.1    Murtoniemi, T.2    Tanskanen, H.3    Vaisanen, T.4    Martikainen, P.J.5
  • 28
    • 0034915283 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Eighty years of spatially coherent Austrian lake surface temperatures and their relationship to regional air temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation
    • Livingstone, D. M. & M. T. Dokulil, 2001. Eighty years of spatially coherent Austrian lake surface temperatures and their relationship to regional air temperature and the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnology and Oceanography 46: 1220-1227.
    • (2001) Limnology and Oceanography , vol.46 , pp. 1220-1227
    • Livingstone, D.M.1    Dokulil, M.T.2
  • 32
    • 0032464821 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Factors determining the year-class strength of age-0 Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis, L.) in a biomanipulated reservoir
    • Mehner, T., H. Dörner & H. Schultz, 1998. Factors determining the year-class strength of age-0 Eurasian perch (Perca fluviatilis, L.) in a biomanipulated reservoir. Archiv of Fisheries and Marine Research 46: 241-251.
    • (1998) Archiv of Fisheries and Marine Research , vol.46 , pp. 241-251
    • Mehner, T.1    Dörner, H.2    Schultz, H.3
  • 33
    • 0020419622 scopus 로고
    • The algal periodicity in Tjeukemeer during 1968-1978
    • Moed, J. R. & H. L. Hoogveld, 1982. The algal periodicity in Tjeukemeer during 1968-1978. Hydrobiologia 95: 223-224.
    • (1982) Hydrobiologia , vol.95 , pp. 223-224
    • Moed, J.R.1    Hoogveld, H.L.2
  • 34
    • 0029660743 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Variation in abundance and survival of fish larvae in shallow eutrophic lake Tjeukemeer
    • Mooij, W. M., 1996. Variation in abundance and survival of fish larvae in shallow eutrophic lake Tjeukemeer. Environmental Biology of Fishes 46: 265-279.
    • (1996) Environmental Biology of Fishes , vol.46 , pp. 265-279
    • Mooij, W.M.1
  • 36
    • 0031812834 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Statistical analysis of the somatic growth rate of 0+ fish in relation to temperature under natural conditions
    • Mooij, W. M. & E. H. Van Nes, 1998. Statistical analysis of the somatic growth rate of 0+ fish in relation to temperature under natural conditions. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 55: 451-458.
    • (1998) Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , vol.55 , pp. 451-458
    • Mooij, W.M.1    Van Nes, E.H.2
  • 38
    • 0035544435 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recruitment of pelagic fish in an unstable climate: Studies in Sweden's four largest lakes
    • Nyberg, P., E. Bergstrand, E. Degerman & O. Enderlein, 2001. Recruitment of pelagic fish in an unstable climate: studies in Sweden's four largest lakes. AMBIO 30: 559-564.
    • (2001) AMBIO , vol.30 , pp. 559-564
    • Nyberg, P.1    Bergstrand, E.2    Degerman, E.3    Enderlein, O.4
  • 39
    • 0021593773 scopus 로고
    • Zooplankton community structure, but not biomass, influences the phosphorus-chlorophyll a relationship
    • Pace, M. L., 1984. Zooplankton community structure, but not biomass, influences the phosphorus-chlorophyll a relationship. Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences 41: 1089-1096.
    • (1984) Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences , vol.41 , pp. 1089-1096
    • Pace, M.L.1
  • 40
    • 0037413628 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems
    • Parmesan, C. & G. Yohe, 2003. A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421: 37-42.
    • (2003) Nature , vol.421 , pp. 37-42
    • Parmesan, C.1    Yohe, G.2
  • 41
    • 0029844577 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Annual cycle of autotrophic and heterotrophic production in a small, monomictic Piedmont lake (Lake Oglethorpe): Analog for the effects of climatic warming on dimictic lakes
    • Porter, K. G., P. A. Saunders, K. A. Haberyan, A. E. Macubbin, T. R. Jacobsen & R. E. Hodson, 1996. Annual cycle of autotrophic and heterotrophic production in a small, monomictic Piedmont lake (Lake Oglethorpe): analog for the effects of climatic warming on dimictic lakes. Limnology and Oceanography 41: 1041-1051.
    • (1996) Limnology and Oceanography , vol.41 , pp. 1041-1051
    • Porter, K.G.1    Saunders, P.A.2    Haberyan, K.A.3    MacUbbin, A.E.4    Jacobsen, T.R.5    Hodson, R.E.6
  • 43
    • 0033739053 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Inter-annual variation in submerged macrophyte community biomass and distribution: The influence of temperature and lake morphometry
    • Rooney, N. & J. Kalff, 2000. Inter-annual variation in submerged macrophyte community biomass and distribution: the influence of temperature and lake morphometry. Aquatic Botany 68: 321-335.
    • (2000) Aquatic Botany , vol.68 , pp. 321-335
    • Rooney, N.1    Kalff, J.2
  • 44
    • 0025675239 scopus 로고
    • Multiplicity of stable states in freshwater systems
    • Scheffer, M., 1990. Multiplicity of stable states in freshwater systems. Hydrobiologia 200/201: 475-486.
    • (1990) Hydrobiologia , vol.200-201 , pp. 475-486
    • Scheffer, M.1
  • 47
    • 0031446525 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Seasonal dynamics of Daphnia and algae explained as a periodically forced predator-prey system
    • Scheffer, M., S. Rinaldi, Y. A. Kuznetsov & E. H. Van Nes, 1997. Seasonal dynamics of Daphnia and algae explained as a periodically forced predator-prey system. Oikos 80: 519-532.
    • (1997) Oikos , vol.80 , pp. 519-532
    • Scheffer, M.1    Rinaldi, S.2    Kuznetsov, Y.A.3    Van Nes, E.H.4
  • 50
    • 0000166131 scopus 로고
    • The PEG-model of seasonal succession of planktonic events in fresh waters
    • Sommer, U., Z. M. Gliwicz, W. Lampert & A. Duncan, 1986. The PEG-model of seasonal succession of planktonic events in fresh waters. Archiv für Hydrobiologie 106: 433-471.
    • (1986) Archiv für Hydrobiologie , vol.106 , pp. 433-471
    • Sommer, U.1    Gliwicz, Z.M.2    Lampert, W.3    Duncan, A.4
  • 51
    • 0033954909 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Meteorological forcing of plankton dynamics in a large and deep continental European lake
    • Straile, D., 2000. Meteorological forcing of plankton dynamics in a large and deep continental European lake. Oecologia 122: 44-50.
    • (2000) Oecologia , vol.122 , pp. 44-50
    • Straile, D.1
  • 52
    • 0033902263 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The North Atlantic Oscillation and plankton dynamics in two European lakes - Two variations on a general theme
    • Straile, D. & R. Adrian, 2000. The North Atlantic Oscillation and plankton dynamics in two European lakes - two variations on a general theme. Global Change Biology 6: 663-670.
    • (2000) Global Change Biology , vol.6 , pp. 663-670
    • Straile, D.1    Adrian, R.2
  • 53
    • 0021557077 scopus 로고
    • Prevention of growth of potentially dense phytoplankton population by zooplankton grazing in the presence of zooplanktivorous fish, in a shallow wetland ecosystem
    • Timms, R. M. & B. Moss, 1984. Prevention of growth of potentially dense phytoplankton population by zooplankton grazing in the presence of zooplanktivorous fish, in a shallow wetland ecosystem. Limnology and Oceanography 29: 472-486.
    • (1984) Limnology and Oceanography , vol.29 , pp. 472-486
    • Timms, R.M.1    Moss, B.2
  • 55
    • 0036901068 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Short-term and long-term effects of zooplanktivorous fish removal in a shallow lake: A synthesis of 15 years of data from Lake Zwemlust
    • Van de Bund, W. J. & E. Van Donk, 2002. Short-term and long-term effects of zooplanktivorous fish removal in a shallow lake: a synthesis of 15 years of data from Lake Zwemlust. Freshwater Biology 47: 2380-2387.
    • (2002) Freshwater Biology , vol.47 , pp. 2380-2387
    • Van De Bund, W.J.1    Van Donk, E.2
  • 56
    • 0032723768 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Changes of the plankton spring outburst related to the North Atlantic Oscillation
    • Weyhenmeyer, G. A., T. Blenckner & K. Pettersson, 1999. Changes of the plankton spring outburst related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Limnology and Oceanography 44: 1788-1792.
    • (1999) Limnology and Oceanography , vol.44 , pp. 1788-1792
    • Weyhenmeyer, G.A.1    Blenckner, T.2    Pettersson, K.3
  • 57
    • 8144231090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Climate change uncouples trophic interactions in an aquatic ecosystem
    • Winder, M. & D. E. Schindler, 2004. Climate change uncouples trophic interactions in an aquatic ecosystem. Ecology 85: 2100-2106.
    • (2004) Ecology , vol.85 , pp. 2100-2106
    • Winder, M.1    Schindler, D.E.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.