Evaluating a model for predicting active crown fire rate of spread using wildfire observations

Canadian Journal of Forest Research

Volumn 36, Issue 11, 2006, Pages 3015-3028

  Alexander, Martin E ^a,d   Cruz, Miguel G ^b,c  

^a FPINNOVATIONS   (Canada)

^b CSIRO   (Australia)

^c BUSHFIRE COOPERATIVE RESEARCH CENTRE   (Australia)

^d LAURENTIAN FORESTRY CENTRE   (Canada)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

FIRE HAZARDS; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; STATISTICAL METHODS;

ACTIVE CROWN FIRES; FIRE BEHAVIOR; SPREAD MODELS; WILDFIRE OBSERVATIONS;

FORESTRY;

DATA SET; FIRE BEHAVIOR; FIRE MANAGEMENT; MODELING; OBSERVATIONAL METHOD; PREDICTION; WILDFIRE;

FOREST FIRES; MATHEMATICAL MODELS; SIMULATION; STATISTICAL METHODS;

CANADA; NORTH AMERICA; UNITED STATES;

EID: 34247279799     PISSN: 00455067     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1139/X06-174     Document Type: Article

References (94)

1. Albini, F.A. 1976. Estimating wildfire behavior and effects. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-30.
2. Alexander, M.E. 1983. Analysis of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index for the 1968 Lesser Slave Lake Fire. Canadian Forest Service Northern Forestry Research Centre, Edmonton, Alberta. For. Rep. 28: 8-10.
3. Alexander, M.E. 1991. The 1985 Butte Fire in central Idaho: a Canadian perspective on the associated burning conditions. In Proceedings of the International Symposium on Fire and the Environment: Ecological and Cultural Perspectives, 20-24 March 1990, Knoxville, Tenn. Edited by S.C. Novdin and T.A. Waldrop. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. SE-69. pp. 334-343.
4. Alexander, M.E. 1992. The 1990 Stephan Bridge Road Fire: a Canadian perspective on the fire danger conditions. Wildfire News and Notes, 6(1): 6.
5. Alexander, M.E. 1994. Guidelines for investigation and documentation of wildfire behavior, with particular reference to exotic pine plantations. Vol. I. In Proceedings of the 2nd International Conference on Forest Fire Research, 21-24 November 1994, Coimbra, Portugal. University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal, pp. 51.
6. Alexander, M.E. 1998. Crown fire thresholds in exotic pine plantations of Australasia. Ph.D. thesis, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia.
7. Alexander, M.E., and Cole, F.V. 1995. Predicting and interpreting fire intensities in Alaskan black spruce forests using the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System. In Managing Forests to Meet Peoples' Needs. Proceedings of the 1994 Society of American Foresters / Canadian Institute of Forestry Convention, 18-22 September 1994, Anchorage, Alaska. Society of American Foresters, Bethesda, Md. Publ. SAF-95-02. pp. 185-192.
8. Alexander, M.E., and Lanoville, R.A. 1987. Wildfires as a source of fire behavior data: a case study from Northwest Territories, Canada. In Conference Papers, Ninth Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 21-24 April 1987, San Diego, Calif. American Meteorological Society, Boston, Mass. pp. 86-93.
9. Alexander, M.E., and Quintilio, D. 1990. Perspectives on experimental fires in Canadian forestry research. Math. Comput. Model. 13(12): 17-26.
10. Alexander, M.E., and Thomas, D.A. 2003a. Wildland fire behavior case studies and analyses: value, approaches, and practical uses. Fire Manage. Today, 63(3): 4-8.
11. Alexander, M.E., and Thomas, D.A. 2003b. Wildland fire behavior case studies and analyses: other examples, methods, reporting standards, and some practical advice. Fire Manage. Today, 63(4): 4-12.
12. Alexander, M.E., Janz, B., and Quintilio, D. 1983. Analysis of extreme wildfire behavior in east-central Alberta: a case study. In Postprint Volume, Seventh Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 25-29 April 1983, Fort Collins, Colo. American Meteorological Society, Boston, Mass. pp. 38-46.
13. Alexander, M.E., Stocks, B.J., and Lawson, B.D. 1991. Fire behavior in black spruce - lichen woodland: the Porter Lake Project. Can. For. Serv. Inf. Rep. NOR-X-310.
14. Alexander, M.E., Stefner, C.N., Mason, J.A., Stocks, B.J., Hartley, G.R., Maffey, M.E., Wotton, B.M., Taylor, S.W., Lavoie, N., and Dalrymple, G.N. 2004. Characterizing the jack pine - black spruce fuel complex of the International Crown Fire Modelling Experiment (ICFME). Can. For. Serv. Inf. Rep. NOR-X-393.
15. Alexander, M.E., Cruz, M.G., and Lopes, A.M.G. 2006. CFIS: A software tool for simulating crown fire initiation and spread. [CD-ROM] In Proceedings of the V International Conference on Forest Fire Research, 27-30 November 2006, Figueira da Foz, Portugal. Edited by D.X. Viegas. Elsevier B.V., Amsterdam, the Netherlands.
16. Anderson, H.E. 1968. Sundance Fire: an analysis of fire phenomena. USDA For. Serv. Res. Pap. INT-56.
17. Andrews, P.L., Bevins, C.D., and Seli, R.C. 2005. BehavePlus fire modeling system User's guide. Version 3.0. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-106WWW Revised.
18. Brotak, E.A. 1979. The Bass River Fire: weather conditions associated with a fatal fire. Fire Manage. Notes, 40(1): 10-13.
19. Burrows, N., Ward, B., and Robinson, A. 1988. Aspects of fire behaviour and fire suppression in a Pinus pinaster plantation. West. Aust. Dept. Conserv. Land Manage. Landnote 2/88.
20. Carlton, D. 2005. User's guide to using CrownMass and Fuel Model Manager. Version 3 [computer program]. Fire Program Soultions, Sandy, Ore.
21. Cheney, N.P. 1981. Fire behaviour. In Fire and the Australian Biota. Edited by A.M. Gill, R.H. Groves, and I.R. Noble. Australian Academy of Sciences, Canberra, Australia. pp. 151-175.
22. Cheney, N.P., Gould, J.S., and Catchpole, W.R. 1993. The influence of fuel, weather, and fire shape variables on fire spread in grasslands. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 3: 31-44.
23. Cheney, N.P., Gould, J.S., and Catchpole, W.R. 1998. Prediction of fire spread in grasslands. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 8: 1-13.
24. Cheney, P., and Sullivan, A. 1997. Grassfires: fuel, weather, and fire behaviour. CSIRO Publishing, Collingwood, Aust.
25. Cruz, M.G., Alexander, M.E., and Wakimoto, R.H. 2003a. Definition of a fire behavior model evaluation protocol: a case study application to crown fire behavior models. In Fire, Fuel Treatments, and Ecological Restoration: Conference Proceedings, 16-18 April 2002, Fort Collins, Colo. Technically edited by P.N. Omi and L.A. Joyce. USDA For. Serv. Proc. RMRS-P-29. pp. 49-67.
26. Cruz, M.C., Alexander, M.E., and Wakimoto, R.H. 2003b. Assessing canopy fuel stratum characteristics in crown fire prone fuel types of western North America. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 12: 39-50.
27. Cruz, M.G., Alexander, M.E., and Wakimoto, R.H. 2003c. Assessing the probability of crown fire initiation based on fire danger indices. For. Chron. 79: 976-983.
28. Cruz, M.G., Alexander, M.E., and Wakimoto, R.H. 2004. Modeling the likelihood of crown fire occurrence in conifer forest stands. For. Sci. 50: 640-658.
29. Cruz, M.G., Alexander, M.E., and Wakimoto, R.H. 2005. Development and testing of models for predicting crown fire rate of spread in conifer forest stands. Can. J. For. Res. 35: 1626-1639.
30. Cruz, M.G., Butler, B.W., Alexander, M.E., Forthofer, J.M., and Wakimoto, R.H. 2006. Predicting the ignition of crown fuels above a spreading surface fire. Part I: model idealization. Int. J. Wildland Fire, 15: 47-60.
31. Davis, J.R., and Dieterich, J.H. 1976. Predicting rate of fire spead (ROS) in Arizona oak chaparral: field workbook. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. RM-24.
32. DeCoste, J.H., Wade, D.D., and Deeming, J.E. 1968. The Gaston Fire. USDA For. Serv. Res. Pap. SE-43.
33. De Groot, W.J., and Alexander, M.E. 1986. Wildfire behavior on the Canadian Shield: a case study of the 1980 Chachukew Fire, east-central Saskatchewan. In Proceedings of the Third Central Region Fire Weather Committee Scientific and Technical Seminar, 3 April 1986, Winnipeg, Man. Compiled and edited by M.E. Alexander. Canadian Forest Service Northern Forestry Centre, Edmonton, Alberta. pp. 23-45.
34. Dorrer, G.A. 1978. Statistical characteristics of the contours of forest fires. Fiz Goreniya Vzriva, 14(2): 71-76. [Translated journal is printed in English as Physics of Combustion, Explosion and Shock Waves].
35. Finklin, A.I., and Fischer, W.C. 1990. Weather station handbook - An interagency guide for wildland managers. National Wildfire Coordinating Group, National Fire Equipment System, Boise Interagency Fire Center, Boise, Idado. Publ. NFES 1140.
36. Finney, M.A. 2004. FARSITE: Fire Area Simulator - Model development and evaluation. USDA For. Serv. Res. Pap. RMRS-RP-4 Revised.
37. Finney, M.A. 2006. An overview of FlamMap fire modeling capabilities. In Fuels Management - How to Measure Success: Conference Proceedings, 28-30 March 2006, Portland, Ore. Compiled by P.L. Andrews and B.W. Butler. USDA For. Serv. Proc. RMRS-P-41. pp. 213-220.
38. Forestry Canada Fire Danger Group. 1992. Development and structure of the Canadian Forest Fire Behavior Prediction System. For. Can. Inf. Rep. ST-X-3.
39. Fulé, P.Z., McHugh, C., Heinlein, T.A., and Covington, W.W. 2001. Potential fire behavior is reduced following forest restoration treatments. In Ponderosa pine ecosystems restoration and conservation: steps toward stewardship. Compiled by R.K. Vance, C.B. Edmminster, W.W. Covington, and J.A. Blake. USDA For. Serv. Proc. RMRS-P-22. pp. 28-35.
40. Goens, D.W. 1990. Meteorological factors contributing to the Canyon Creek blowup, September 6 and 7, 1988. In Proceedings of the Fifth Conference on Mountain Meteorology, 25-29 June 1990, Boulder, Colo. American Meteorological Society, Boston, Mass. pp. 180-186.
41. Goens, D.W., and Andrews, P.L. 1998. Weather factors and fire behavior factors related to the Dude Fire near Payson, Ariz. In Preprint Volume, Second Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 11-16 January 1998, Phoenix, Ariz. American Meteorological Society, Boston, Mass. pp. 153-158.
42. Graham, R.T. (Technical editor). 2003. Hayman Fire case study. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-114.
43. Guijarro, M., Hernando, C., Diez, C., Martinez, E., Madrigal, J., Cabaret, C.L., Blanc, L., Colin, P.Y., Perez-Gorostiaga, P., Vega, J.A., and Fonturbel, M.T. 2002. Flammability of some fuel beds common in the south-European ecosystems. In Forest Fire Research & Wildland Fire Safety. Proceedings of the IV Conference on Forest Fire Research, 2002 Wildland Fire Safety Summit, 18-23 November 2002, Luso and Coimbra, Portugal. [CD-ROM]. Edited by D.X. Viegas. Milpress Scientific Publications, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
44. Hall, S.A., and Burke, I.C. 2006. Considerations for characterizing fuels as inputs for fire behavior models. For. Ecol. Manage. 227: 102-114.
45. Hely, C., Flannigan, M, Bergeron, Y, and McRae, D. 2001. Role of vegetation and weather on fire behavior in the Canadian mixedwood boreal forest using two fire behavior prediction systems. Can. J. For. Res. 31: 430-441.
46. Hirsch, K.G. 1989a. Analysis of the fire behavior associated with three 1988 spring wildfires in central Canada. In Proceedings of the 10th Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 17-21 April 1989, Ottawa, Ont. Edited by D.C. MacIver, H. Auld, and R. Whitewood. Forestry Canada and Environment Canada, Ottawa, Ont. pp. 416-425.
47. Hirsch, K.G. 1989b. Documenting wildfire behavior: an example from the 1988 Brereton Lake Fire, Manitoba. Fire Manage. Notes, 50(1): 45-48.
48. Hirsch, K.G., and Flanningan, M.D. 1990. Meteorological and fire behavior characteristics of the 1989 fire season in Manitoba, Canada. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Forest Fire Research, 19-22 November 1990, Coimbra, Portugal. University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal. pp. B:06:1-16.
49. Hirsch, S.N., Meyer, G.F., and Radloff, D.L. 1979. Choosing an activity fuel treatment for Southwest ponderosa pine. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. RM-67.
50. Kiil, A.D., and Grigel, J.E. 1969. The May 1968 forest conflagrations in central Alberta - A review of fire weather, fuels, and fire behavior. Can. For. Serv. Inf. Rep. A-X-24.
51. Lanoville, R.A., and Schmidt, R.E. 1985. Wildfire documentation in the Northwest Territories: a case study of Fort Simpson 40-1983. In Proceedings of the Second Western Region Fire Weather Committee Scientific and Technical Seminar, 6 March 1984, Edmonton, Alta. Compiled and edited by M.E. Alexander. Canadian Forest Service Northern Forestry Research Centre, Edmonton, Alta. pp. 17-22.
52. Lee, S.L. 1972. Fire research. Appl. Mech. Res. 25: 503-509.
53. Luke, R.H., and McArthur, A.G. 1978. Bushfires in Australia. Australian Government Publishing Service, Canberra, Australia.
54. Mayer, D.G., and Butler, D.G. 1993. Statistical validation. Ecol. Model. 68: 21-32.
55. McAlpine, R.S., and Wakimoto, R.H. 1991. The acceleration of fire from point source to equilibrium spread. For. Sci. 37: 1314-1337.
56. McAlpine, R.S., Stocks, B.J., Van Wagner, C.E., Lawson, B.D., Alexander, M.E., and Lynham, T.J. 1990. Forest fire behavior research in Canada. In Proceedings of the International Conference on Forest Fire Research, 19-22 November 1990. Coimbra, Portugal. University of Coimbra, Coimbra, Portugal. pp. A.02:1-12.
57. McAlpine, R.S., Lawson, B.D., and Taylor, E. 1991. Fire spread across a slope. In Proceedings of the 11th Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 16-19 April 1991, Missoula, Mont. Edited by P.L. Andrews and D.F. Potts. Society of American Foresters, Bethesda, Md. SAF Publ. 91-04. pp. 218-225.
58. McArthur, A.G. 1967. Fire behaviour in eucalypt forests. Commonw. Aust. For. Timber Bureau Leafl. 100.
59. NFPA. 1991. Stephan Bridge Road Fire case study. National Fire Protection Association, Quincy, Mass.
60. Norum, R.A. 1982. Predicting wildfire behavior in black spruce forests in Alaska. USDA For. Serv. Res. Note PNW-401.
61. Pyne, S.J., Andrews, P.L., and Laven, R.D. 1996. Introduction to wildland fire. 2nd ed. John Wiley & Sons, Inc., New York.
62. Quintilio, D., Lawson, B.D., Walkinshaw, S., and Van Nest, T. 2001. Final documentation report - Chisholm Fire (LWF-063). Alta. Sustainable Resour. Develop. For. Prot. Div. Publ. No. I/036.
63. Reinhardt, E.D., and Crookston, N.L. (Technical editors). 2003. The Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. RMRS-GTR-116.
64. Rothermel, R.C. 1983. How to predict the spread and intensity of forest and range fires. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-143.
65. Rothermel, R.C. 1991. Predicting behavior and size of crown fires in the Northern Rocky Mountains. USDA For. Serv. Res. Pap. INT-438.
66. Rothermel, R.C. 1993. Mann Gulch Fire: a race that couldn't be won. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-299.
67. Rothermel, R.C., and Mutch, R.W. 1986. Behavior of the life-threatening Butte Fire: August 27-29, 1985. Fire Manage. Notes, 47(2): 14-24.
68. Sando, R.W., and Haines, D.A. 1972. Fire weather and fire behavior on the Little Sioux Fire. USDA For. Serv. Res. Pap. NC-76.
69. Schaeffer, D.L. 1980. A model evaluation methodology applicable to environment assessment model. Ecol. Model. 8: 275-295.
70. Scott, J.H. 2006. Comparison of crown fire modeling systems used in three fire management applications. USDA For. Serv. Res. Pap. RMRS-RP-58.
71. Scott, J. H., and Reinhardt, E.D. 2001. Assessing crown fire potential by linking models of surface and crown fire behavior. USDA For. Serv. Res. Pap. RMRS-RP-29.
72. Simard, A.J., Haines, D.A., Blank, R.W., and Frost, J.S. 1983. The Mack Lake Fire. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. NC-83.
73. Stocks, B.J. 1975. The 1974 wildfire situation in northwestern Ontario. Can. For. Serv. Inf. Rep. O-X-232.
74. Stocks, B.J. 1987. Fire behavior in immature jack pine. Can. J. For. Res. 17: 80-86.
75. Stocks, B.J. 1988. Forest fire close to home: Terrace Bay No. 7/86. In Protecting People and Homes from Wildfire in the Interior West: Proceedings of Symposium and Workshop, 6-8 October 1987, Missoula, Mont. Compiled by W.C. Fischer and S.F. Arno. USDA For. Serv. Gen. Tech. Rep. INT-251. pp. 189-193.
76. Stocks, B.J. 1989. Fire behavior in mature jack pine. Can. J. For. Res. 19: 783-790.
77. Stocks, B.J., and Flannigan, M.D. 1987. Analysis of the behavior and associated weather for a 1986 northwestern Ontario wildfire: Red Lake No. 7. In Conference Papers, Ninth Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 21-24 April 1987, San Diego, Calif. American Meteorological Society, Boston, Mass. pp. 94-100.
78. Stocks, B.J., and Hartley, G.H. 1995. Fire behavior in three jack pine fuel complexes. Poster with text available from Canadian Forest Service, Great Lakes Forestry Centre, Sault Ste. Marie, Ont.
79. Stocks, B.J., and Walker, J.D. 1973. Climatic conditions before and during four significant forest fire situations in Ontario. Can. For. Serv. Inf. Rep. O-X-187.
80. Stocks, B.J., Alexander, M.E., Wotton, B.M., Stefner, C.N., Flannigan, M.D., Taylor, S.W., Lavoie, N., Mason, J.A., Hartley, G.R., Maffey, M.E., Dalrymple, G.N., Blake, T.W., Cruz, M.G., and Lanoville, R.A. 2004. Crown fire behaviour in a northern jack pine - black spruce forest. Can. J. For. Res. 34: 1548-1560.
81. Street, R.B., and Stocks, B.J. 1983. Synoptic-scale fire weather in northwestern Ontario. In Postprint Volume, Seventh Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology, 25-29 April 1983, Fort Collins, Colo. American Meteorological Society, Boston, Mass. pp. 9-12.
82. Sullivan, A.L., and Knight, I.K. 2001. Estimating error in wind speed measurements for experimental fires. Can. J. For. Res. 31: 401-409.
83. Taylor, D.F., and Williams, D.T. 1967. Meteorological conditions of the Hellgate Fire. USDA For. Serv. Res. Pap. SE-29.
84. Taylor, S.W., Wotton, B.M., Alexander, M.E., and Dalrymple, G.N. 2004. Variation in wind and crown fire behavior in a northern jack pine - black spruce forest. Can. J. For. Res. 34: 1561-1576.
85. Turner, J.A., and Lawson, B.D. 1978. Weather in the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System: a user guide to national standards and practices. Can. For. Serv. Inf. Rep. BC-X-177.
86. Tymstra, C. 2002. Prometheus - The Canadian wildland fire growth model. Initial Attack, 2002(Spring): 8-9.
87. Van Wagner, C.E. 1965. Story of an intense crown fire at Petawawa. Pulp Pap. Mag. Can. 66: WR358-361.
88. Van Wagner, C.E. 1977. Conditions for the start and spread of crown fire. Can. J. For. Res. 7: 23-34.
89. Van Wagner, C.E. 1993. Prediction of crown fire behavior in two stands of jack pine. Can. J. For. Res. 23: 442-449.
90. Wade, D.D., and Ward, D.E. 1973. An analysis of the Air Force Bomb Range Fire. USDA For Serv. Res. Pap. SE-105.
91. Walker, J.D., and Stocks, B.J. 1975. The fuel complex of mature and immature jack pine stands in Ontario. Can. For. Serv. Inf. Rep. O-X-229.
92. Wendel, G.W. 1960. Fuel weights of pond pine crowns. USDA For. Serv. Southeast. For. Exp. Stn. Res. Note 149.
93. Wendel, G.W., Storey, T.G., and Byram, G.M. 1962. Forest fuels on organic and associated soils in the coastal plain of North Carolina. USDA For. Serv. Southeast. For. Exp. Stn. Stn. Pap. 144.
94. Windisch, A.G., and Good, R.E. 1991. Fire behavior and stem survival in the New Jersey pine plains. In High Intensity Fires in Wildlands: Management Challenges and Options. Proceedings of the 17th Tall Timbers Fire Ecology Conference, 18-21 May 1989, Tallahassee, Fla. Edited by S.M. Hermann, R. Komarek, R.L. Myers, L.L. Landers, and W.L. Neel. Tall Timbers Research Station, Tallahassee, Fla. pp. 273-299.