메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 17, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 101-117

Risk assessment in the face of a changing environment: Gypsy moth and climate change in Utah

Author keywords

Aspen; Climate change; Climatic suitability; Exotic pests; Global warming; Gypsy moth; Introduced species; Lymantria dispar; Maple; Oak; Risk assessment

Indexed keywords

CLIMATE CHANGE; CLIMATE EFFECT; CLIMATE MODELING; DECIDUOUS TREE; FITNESS; INVASIVE SPECIES; MOTH; NATIVE SPECIES; RISK ASSESSMENT; TWENTY FIRST CENTURY;

EID: 34247103968     PISSN: 10510761     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1890/1051-0761(2007)017[0101:RAITFO]2.0.CO;2     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (48)

References (49)
  • 1
    • 34247116103 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Baldwin, C. K. 2003. Historical climate analysis. Pages 58-72 in F. H. Wagner, editor. Preparing for a changing climate: the potential consequences of climate variability and change. Report of the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Assessment Team for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.
    • Baldwin, C. K. 2003. Historical climate analysis. Pages 58-72 in F. H. Wagner, editor. Preparing for a changing climate: the potential consequences of climate variability and change. Report of the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Assessment Team for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.
  • 2
    • 0023468565 scopus 로고
    • Influence of alkaloids on feeding preference of eastern deciduous forest trees by the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar)
    • Barbosa, P., and V. A. Krischik. 1987. Influence of alkaloids on feeding preference of eastern deciduous forest trees by the gypsy moth (Lymantria dispar). American Naturalist 130:53-69.
    • (1987) American Naturalist , vol.130 , pp. 53-69
    • Barbosa, P.1    Krischik, V.A.2
  • 3
    • 34247101645 scopus 로고
    • Gypsy moth in Canada: Behavior and control. Canadian Forest Service, Forestry Canada, Quebec Region
    • DPC-X-32
    • Benoit, P., and D. Lachance. 1990. Gypsy moth in Canada: behavior and control. Canadian Forest Service, Forestry Canada, Quebec Region, Information Report DPC-X-32.
    • (1990) Information Report
    • Benoit, P.1    Lachance, D.2
  • 6
    • 34247125310 scopus 로고
    • The gypsy moth
    • Wright and Potter, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
    • Forbush, E. H., and C. H. Fernald. 1896. The gypsy moth, Porthetria dispar (Linn.). Wright and Potter, Boston, Massachusetts, USA.
    • (1896) Porthetria dispar (Linn.)
    • Forbush, E.H.1    Fernald, C.H.2
  • 7
    • 2342655777 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Species-specific differences in oak foliage affect preference and performance of gypsy moth caterpillars
    • Foss, L. K., and L. K. Rieske. 2003. Species-specific differences in oak foliage affect preference and performance of gypsy moth caterpillars. Entomologia Experimentalis et Applicata 108:87-93.
    • (2003) Entomologia Experimentalis et Applicata , vol.108 , pp. 87-93
    • Foss, L.K.1    Rieske, L.K.2
  • 9
    • 2642568669 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The gypsy moth life stage model: Landscape-wide estimates of gypsy moth establishment using a multi-generational phenology model
    • Gray, D. R. 2004. The gypsy moth life stage model: landscape-wide estimates of gypsy moth establishment using a multi-generational phenology model. Ecological Modelling 176:155-171.
    • (2004) Ecological Modelling , vol.176 , pp. 155-171
    • Gray, D.R.1
  • 10
    • 0000134804 scopus 로고
    • Toward a model of gypsy moth phenology: Using respiration rates of individual eggs to determine temperature-time requirements of prediapause development
    • Gray, D. R., J. A. Logan, F. W. Ravlin, and J. A. Carlson. 1991. Toward a model of gypsy moth phenology: using respiration rates of individual eggs to determine temperature-time requirements of prediapause development. Environmental Entomology 20:1645-1652.
    • (1991) Environmental Entomology , vol.20 , pp. 1645-1652
    • Gray, D.R.1    Logan, J.A.2    Ravlin, F.W.3    Carlson, J.A.4
  • 11
    • 0035163024 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Diapause in the gypsy moth: A model of inhibition and development
    • Gray, D. R., F. W. Ravlin, and J. A. Braine. 2001. Diapause in the gypsy moth: a model of inhibition and development. Journal of Insect Physiology 47:173-184.
    • (2001) Journal of Insect Physiology , vol.47 , pp. 173-184
    • Gray, D.R.1    Ravlin, F.W.2    Braine, J.A.3
  • 12
    • 0029103873 scopus 로고
    • Further advances toward a model of gypsy moth egg phenology: Respiration rates and thermal responsiveness during diapause, and age-dependent developmental rates in postdiapause
    • Gray, D. R., F. W. Ravlin, J. Régnière, and J. A. Logan. 1995. Further advances toward a model of gypsy moth egg phenology: respiration rates and thermal responsiveness during diapause, and age-dependent developmental rates in postdiapause. Journal of Insect Physiology 41:247-256.
    • (1995) Journal of Insect Physiology , vol.41 , pp. 247-256
    • Gray, D.R.1    Ravlin, F.W.2    Régnière, J.3    Logan, J.A.4
  • 13
    • 0028808917 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic space-time weather models from ground-based data
    • Hutchinson, M. F. 1995. Stochastic space-time weather models from ground-based data. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 73:237-264.
    • (1995) Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , vol.73 , pp. 237-264
    • Hutchinson, M.F.1
  • 14
    • 84967885639 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, editors. 1990. Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. Report prepared for IPCC by Working Group I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
    • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). J. T. Houghton, G. J. Jenkins, and J. J. Ephraums, editors. 1990. Climate change: the IPCC scientific assessment. Report prepared for IPCC by Working Group I. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
  • 15
    • 0034793285 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Risk assessment for non-indigenous pests: 1. Mapping the outputs of phenology models to assess the likelihood of establishment
    • Jarvis, C. H., and R. H. A. Baker. 2001a. Risk assessment for non-indigenous pests: 1. Mapping the outputs of phenology models to assess the likelihood of establishment. Diversity and Distributions 7:223-235.
    • (2001) Diversity and Distributions , vol.7 , pp. 223-235
    • Jarvis, C.H.1    Baker, R.H.A.2
  • 16
    • 0034791928 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Risk assessment for nonindigenous pests: 2. Accounting for interyear climate variability
    • Jarvis, C., and R. H. A. Baker. 2001b. Risk assessment for nonindigenous pests: 2. Accounting for interyear climate variability. Diversity and Distributions 7:237-248.
    • (2001) Diversity and Distributions , vol.7 , pp. 237-248
    • Jarvis, C.1    Baker, R.H.A.2
  • 17
    • 0037305237 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The impact of interpolated daily temperature data on landscapewide predictions of invertebrate pest phenology
    • Jarvis, C. H., R. H. A. Baker, and D. Morgan. 2003. The impact of interpolated daily temperature data on landscapewide predictions of invertebrate pest phenology. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 94:169-181.
    • (2003) Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment , vol.94 , pp. 169-181
    • Jarvis, C.H.1    Baker, R.H.A.2    Morgan, D.3
  • 18
    • 0029476541 scopus 로고
    • The VEMAP integrated database for modeling United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change
    • Kittel, T. G. F., N. A. Rosenbloom, T. H. Painter, and D. S. Schimel. 1995. The VEMAP integrated database for modeling United States ecosystem/vegetation sensitivity to climate change. Journal of Biogeography 22:857-862.
    • (1995) Journal of Biogeography , vol.22 , pp. 857-862
    • Kittel, T.G.F.1    Rosenbloom, N.A.2    Painter, T.H.3    Schimel, D.S.4
  • 19
    • 0003803893 scopus 로고
    • Suitability of North American tree species to the gypsy moth: A summary of field and laboratory tests. USDA Forest Service
    • NE-211, Radnor, Pennsylvania, USA
    • Liebhold, A. M., K. W. Gottshalk, R. Muzika, M. E. Montgomery, R. Young, K. O'Day, and B. Kelly. 1995. Suitability of North American tree species to the gypsy moth: a summary of field and laboratory tests. USDA Forest Service, General Technical Report NE-211, Radnor, Pennsylvania, USA.
    • (1995) General Technical Report
    • Liebhold, A.M.1    Gottshalk, K.W.2    Muzika, R.3    Montgomery, M.E.4    Young, R.5    O'Day, K.6    Kelly, B.7
  • 20
    • 0001090133 scopus 로고
    • A modeling environment for simulation of gypsy moth larval phenology
    • Logan, J. A., R. A. Casagrande, and A. M. Liebhold. 1991. A modeling environment for simulation of gypsy moth larval phenology. Environmental Entomology 20:1516-1525.
    • (1991) Environmental Entomology , vol.20 , pp. 1516-1525
    • Logan, J.A.1    Casagrande, R.A.2    Liebhold, A.M.3
  • 21
    • 85048564885 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Ghost forests, global warming, and the mountain pine beetle
    • Logan, J. A., and J. A. Powell. 2001. Ghost forests, global warming, and the mountain pine beetle. American Entomologist 47:160-173.
    • (2001) American Entomologist , vol.47 , pp. 160-173
    • Logan, J.A.1    Powell, J.A.2
  • 22
    • 77954547136 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling mountain pine beetle phenological response to temperature
    • T. L. Shore, J. E. Brooks, and J. E. Stone, editors, Columbia, Canada. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, British Columbia, Information Report BC
    • Logan, J. A., and J. A. Powell. 2004. Modelling mountain pine beetle phenological response to temperature. Pages 210-222 in T. L. Shore, J. E. Brooks, and J. E. Stone, editors. Mountain Pine Beetle Symposium: Challenges and Solutions, 30-31 October 2003, Kelowna, British Columbia, Canada. Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Pacific Forestry Centre, Victoria, British Columbia, Information Report BC-X-399.
    • (2004) Mountain Pine Beetle Symposium: Challenges and Solutions, 30-31 October 2003, Kelowna, British
    • Logan, J.A.1    Powell, J.A.2
  • 24
    • 0001440503 scopus 로고
    • An analytical model for description of temperature dependent rate phenomena in arthropods
    • Logan, J. A., D. J. Wollkind, S. C. Hoyt, and L. K. Tanigoshi. 1976. An analytical model for description of temperature dependent rate phenomena in arthropods. Environmental Entomology 5:1133-1140.
    • (1976) Environmental Entomology , vol.5 , pp. 1133-1140
    • Logan, J.A.1    Wollkind, D.J.2    Hoyt, S.C.3    Tanigoshi, L.K.4
  • 25
    • 0000073691 scopus 로고
    • Qualitative analysis of insect outbreak systems: The spruce budworm and the forest
    • Ludwig, D., D. Jones, and C. S. Holling. 1978. Qualitative analysis of insect outbreak systems: the spruce budworm and the forest. Journal of Animal Ecology 47:315-332.
    • (1978) Journal of Animal Ecology , vol.47 , pp. 315-332
    • Ludwig, D.1    Jones, D.2    Holling, C.S.3
  • 26
    • 34247124851 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mearns, L. O. 2003a. Global and regional climate models and possible scenarios. Pages 44-45 in F. H. Wagner, editor. Preparing for a changing climate: the potential consequences of climate variability and change. Report of the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Assessment Team for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.
    • Mearns, L. O. 2003a. Global and regional climate models and possible scenarios. Pages 44-45 in F. H. Wagner, editor. Preparing for a changing climate: the potential consequences of climate variability and change. Report of the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Assessment Team for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.
  • 27
    • 34247146030 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Mearns, L. O. 2003b. GCM scenarios for the RMGB region. Pages 72-73 in F. H. Wagner, editor. Preparing for a changing climate: the potential consequences of climate variability and change. Report of the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Assessment Team for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.
    • Mearns, L. O. 2003b. GCM scenarios for the RMGB region. Pages 72-73 in F. H. Wagner, editor. Preparing for a changing climate: the potential consequences of climate variability and change. Report of the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Assessment Team for the U.S. Global Change Research Program, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.
  • 28
    • 0542397211 scopus 로고
    • Laboratory feeding tests on the development of gypsy moth larvae with references to plant taxa and allelochemicals
    • Agricultural Experiment Station, Corvallis, Oregon, USA
    • Miller, J. C., and P. E. Hanson. 1989. Laboratory feeding tests on the development of gypsy moth larvae with references to plant taxa and allelochemicals. Agricultural Experiment Station, Station Bulletin 674, Corvallis, Oregon, USA.
    • (1989) Station Bulletin , vol.674
    • Miller, J.C.1    Hanson, P.E.2
  • 29
    • 0001870781 scopus 로고
    • The gypsy moth: A westward migrant
    • A. A. Berryman, editor, Plenum, New York, New York, USA
    • Montgomery, M. L., and W. E. Wallner. 1988. The gypsy moth: a westward migrant. Pages 73-84 in A. A. Berryman, editor. Dynamics of forest insect populations. Plenum, New York, New York, USA.
    • (1988) Dynamics of forest insect populations , pp. 73-84
    • Montgomery, M.L.1    Wallner, W.E.2
  • 30
    • 0003287046 scopus 로고
    • Food plants of the gypsy moth in America
    • U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C, USA
    • Mosher, F. H. 1915. Food plants of the gypsy moth in America. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Bulletin 250, Washington, D.C., USA.
    • (1915) Bulletin , vol.250
    • Mosher, F.H.1
  • 31
    • 0032483944 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Spatial interpolation of climatic normals: Test of a new method in the Canadian boreal forest
    • Nalder, I. A., and R. W. Wein. 1998. Spatial interpolation of climatic normals: test of a new method in the Canadian boreal forest. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 9:211-225.
    • (1998) Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , vol.9 , pp. 211-225
    • Nalder, I.A.1    Wein, R.W.2
  • 32
    • 33847396384 scopus 로고
    • A sourcebook for management of the gypsy moth
    • Department of Supply and Services Canada Catalogue No
    • Nealis, V. G., and S. Erb. 1993. A sourcebook for management of the gypsy moth. Forestry Canada, Ontario Region. Department of Supply and Services Canada Catalogue No. FO42-193/1993E.
    • (1993) Forestry Canada, Ontario Region
    • Nealis, V.G.1    Erb, S.2
  • 33
    • 16244415900 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Insect seasonality: Circle map analysis of temperature-driven life cycles
    • Powell, J. A., and J. A. Logan. 2005. Insect seasonality: circle map analysis of temperature-driven life cycles. Theoretical Population Biology 67:161-179.
    • (2005) Theoretical Population Biology , vol.67 , pp. 161-179
    • Powell, J.A.1    Logan, J.A.2
  • 34
    • 0026299469 scopus 로고
    • A serial approach to local stochastic weather models
    • Racsko, P, L. Szeidl, and M. Semonov. 1991. A serial approach to local stochastic weather models. Ecological Modelling 57:27-41.
    • (1991) Ecological Modelling , vol.57 , pp. 27-41
    • Racsko, P.1    Szeidl, L.2    Semonov, M.3
  • 35
    • 0030498102 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A generalized approach to landscape-wide seasonal forecasting with temperature-driven simulation models
    • Régnière, J. 1996. A generalized approach to landscape-wide seasonal forecasting with temperature-driven simulation models. Environmental Entomology 25:869-881.
    • (1996) Environmental Entomology , vol.25 , pp. 869-881
    • Régnière, J.1
  • 36
    • 0028259091 scopus 로고
    • Statistical simulation of daily air temperature patterns in eastern North America to forecast seasonal events in insect pest management
    • Régnière, J., and P. V. Bolstad. 1994. Statistical simulation of daily air temperature patterns in eastern North America to forecast seasonal events in insect pest management. Environmental Entomology 23:1368-1380.
    • (1994) Environmental Entomology , vol.23 , pp. 1368-1380
    • Régnière, J.1    Bolstad, P.V.2
  • 37
    • 21144457531 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Animal life cycle models
    • M. Schwartz, editor, Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, The Netherlands
    • Régnière, J., and J. A. Logan. 2003. Animal life cycle models. Pages 237-254 in M. Schwartz, editor. Phenology: an integrative environmental science. Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, The Netherlands.
    • (2003) Phenology: An integrative environmental science , pp. 237-254
    • Régnière, J.1    Logan, J.A.2
  • 38
    • 0036864447 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Modelling seasonality of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), to evaluate probability of its persistence in novel environments
    • Régnière, J., and V. Nealis. 2002. Modelling seasonality of gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), to evaluate probability of its persistence in novel environments. Canadian Entomologist 134:805-824.
    • (2002) Canadian Entomologist , vol.134 , pp. 805-824
    • Régnière, J.1    Nealis, V.2
  • 40
    • 0012101606 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Phenology of Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), male flight and the effect of dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes
    • Régnière, J., and A. Sharov. 1998. Phenology of Lymantria dispar (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae), male flight and the effect of dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes. International Journal of Biometerology 41:161-168.
    • (1998) International Journal of Biometerology , vol.41 , pp. 161-168
    • Régnière, J.1    Sharov, A.2
  • 41
    • 0001309310 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simulating temperature-dependent ecological processes at sub-continental scale: Male Gypsy moth flight phenology as an example
    • Régnière, J., and A. Sharov. 1999. Simulating temperature-dependent ecological processes at sub-continental scale: male Gypsy moth flight phenology as an example. International Journal of Biometerology 42:146-152.
    • (1999) International Journal of Biometerology , vol.42 , pp. 146-152
    • Régnière, J.1    Sharov, A.2
  • 42
    • 0019353887 scopus 로고
    • Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature and solar radiation
    • Richardson, C. W. 1981. Stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature and solar radiation. Water Resources Research 17:182-190.
    • (1981) Water Resources Research , vol.17 , pp. 182-190
    • Richardson, C.W.1
  • 43
    • 0005320049 scopus 로고
    • WGEN: A model for generating daily weather variables
    • USDA, Washington, D.C, USA
    • Richardson, C. W., and D. A. Wright. 1984. WGEN: a model for generating daily weather variables. Agricultural Research Service 8. USDA, Washington, D.C., USA.
    • (1984) Agricultural Research Service 8
    • Richardson, C.W.1    Wright, D.A.2
  • 44
    • 0036161610 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Using forest health monitoring to assess aspen forest cover change in the Southern Rockies
    • Rogers, P. 2002. Using forest health monitoring to assess aspen forest cover change in the Southern Rockies. Forest Ecology and Management 155:223-236.
    • (2002) Forest Ecology and Management , vol.155 , pp. 223-236
    • Rogers, P.1
  • 45
    • 0031875923 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Bioeconomics of managing the spread of exotic pest species with barrier zones
    • Sharov, A. A., and A. M. Liebhold. 1998. Bioeconomics of managing the spread of exotic pest species with barrier zones. Ecological Applications 8:833-845.
    • (1998) Ecological Applications , vol.8 , pp. 833-845
    • Sharov, A.A.1    Liebhold, A.M.2
  • 47
    • 34247136408 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Sustaining aspen in western landscapes: Symposium proceedings, 13-15 June 2000, Grand Junction, Colorado, USA
    • Shepperd, W. D, D. Blinkley, D. L. Bartos, T. J. Stohlgren, and L. G. Eskew, compilers, USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
    • Shepperd, W. D, D. Blinkley, D. L. Bartos, T. J. Stohlgren, and L. G. Eskew, compilers. 2001. Sustaining aspen in western landscapes: symposium proceedings, 13-15 June 2000, Grand Junction, Colorado, USA. Proceedings RMRS-P-18. USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA.
    • (2001) Proceedings RMRS-P-18
  • 48
    • 34247109169 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Wagner, F. H. 2003. Scenario choices for RMGB assessment. Pages 73-77 in F. Wagner, editor. Preparing for a changing climate: the potential consequences of climate variability and change. Report of the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Assessment Team for the Global Change Research Program, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.
    • Wagner, F. H. 2003. Scenario choices for RMGB assessment. Pages 73-77 in F. Wagner, editor. Preparing for a changing climate: the potential consequences of climate variability and change. Report of the Rocky Mountain/Great Basin Regional Assessment Team for the Global Change Research Program, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, USA.
  • 49
    • 0033618903 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Simultaneous stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature and solar radiation at multiple sites in complex terrain
    • Wilks, D. S. 1999. Simultaneous stochastic simulation of daily precipitation, temperature and solar radiation at multiple sites in complex terrain. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 96:85-101.
    • (1999) Agricultural and Forest Meteorology , vol.96 , pp. 85-101
    • Wilks, D.S.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.