Chapter 13 Climate Variability, Climate Change, and Western Wildfire with Implications for the Urban-Wildland Interface

Advances in the Economics of Environmental Resources

Volumn 6, Issue , 2007, Pages 225-253

  Keeton, William S ^a   Mote, Philip W ^a   Franklin, Jerry F ^a  

^a NONE

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

EID: 34147130895     PISSN: 15693740     EISSN: None     Source Type: Book Series    
DOI: 10.1016/S1569-3740(06)06013-5     Document Type: Review

References (77)

1. Agee J.K. Fire ecology of Pacific Northwest forests (1993), Island Press, Washington DC
2. Agee J.K., and Flewelling R. A fire cycle model based on climate for the Olympic Mountains, Washington. Proceedings of the Fire and Meteorology Conference 7 (1983) 32-37
3. Allen, C.D., & Breshears, D.D. (1998). Drought-induced shift of a forest-woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 95, 14,839-14,842. National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.
4. Bachelet D., Neilson R.P., Lenihan J.M., and Drapek R.J. Climate change effects on vegetation distribution and carbon budget in the United States. Ecosystems 4 (2001) 164-185
5. Bessie W.C., and Johnson E.A. The relative importance of fuels and weather on fire behavior in subalpine forests. Ecology 76 (1995) 747-762
6. Bretherton C.S., Widmann M., Dymnikov V.P., Wallace J.M., and Blade I. Effective number of degrees of freedom of a spatial field. Journal of Climate 12 (1999) 1990-2009
7. Brown D.G., Johnson K.M., Loveland T.R., and Theobald D.M. Rural land use trends in the conterminous U.S., 1950-2000. Ecological Applications 15 (2005) 1851-1863
8. Brown T.J., Hall B.L., and Westerling A. The impact of twenty-first century climate change on wildland fire danger in the western United States: An applications perspective. Climatic Change 62 (2004) 365-388
9. Brubaker L.B. Responses of tree populations to climatic change. Vegetatio 67 (1986) 119-130
10. Brubaker L.B. Vegetation history and anticipating future change. In: Agee J.K., and Johnson D. (Eds). Ecosystem management for parks and wilderness (1988), University of Washington Press, Seattle, Washington 41-60
11. Canton-Thompson, J., Thompson, B., Gebert, K., Calkin, D., Donovan, G., & Jones, G. (2006). Factors affecting fire suppression costs as identified by incident management teams. USDA Forest Service Research Note RMRS-RN-30.
12. Cohen J., and Saveland J. Structure ignition assessment can help reduce fire damages in the W-UI. Fire Management Today 57 4 (1997) 19-23
13. Cova T.J., Sutton P., and Theobald D.M. Exurban change detection in fire-prone areas with nighttime satellite imagery. Photogrammetric Engineering & Remote Sensing 70 (2004) 1249-1257
14. Dale V.H., and Franklin J.F. Potential effects of climate change on stand development in the Pacific Northwest. Canadian Journal of Forest Resources 19 (1989) 1581-1590
15. Flannigan M.D., and Van Wagner C.E. Climate change and wildfire in Canada. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 21 (1991) 66-72
16. Fosberg, M. A., Mearns, L. O., & Price, C. (1992). Climate change- fire interactions at the global scale: Predictions and limitations of methods. In: P. J. Crutzen & J. G. Goldammer (Eds), Fire in the Environment (Ch 8). New York: Wiley and Sons.
17. Franklin J.F., Spies T.A., Van Pelt R., Carey A., Thornburgh D., Berg D.R., Lindenmayer D., Harmon M., Keeton W.S., Shaw D.C., Bible K., and Chen J. Disturbances and the structural development of natural forest ecosystems with some implications for silviculture. Forest Ecology and Management 155 (2002) 399-423
18. Franklin J.F., Swanson F.J., Harmon M.E., Perry D.A., Spies T.A., Dale V.H., McKee A., Ferrell W.K., Means J.E., Gregory S.V., Lattin J.D., Schowalter T.D., and Larsen D. Effects of global climatic change on forests in northwestern North America. Northwest Environmental Journal 7 (1991) 233-254
19. Gardner R.H., Hargrove W.W., Turner M.G., and Romme W.H. Climate change, disturbances, and landscape dynamics. In: Walker B., and Steffen W. (Eds). Global change and terrestrial ecosystems (1996), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK 149-172
20. Gedalof Z., and Smith D.J. Interdecadal climate variability and regime-scale shifts in Pacific North America. Geophysical Research Letters 28 (2001) 1515-1518
21. Gedalof Z.M., Peterson D.L., and Mantua N.J. Atmospheric, climatic and ecological controls on extreme wildfire years in the northwestern United States. Ecological Applications 15 (2005) 154-174
22. Hardy, C. C., & Arno, S. F. (eds). (1996). The use of fire in fire restoration. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report InT-GTR-341.
23. Heilman, W. E., Eenigenberg, J. E., & Main, W. A. (1994). Upper-air synoptic patterns associated with regional fire-weather episodes. In: Proceedings of the 12th Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology (pp. 355-370). Publication 94-02. Society of American Foresters, Bethesda, MD.
24. Hemstrom M.A., and Franklin J.F. Fire and other recent disturbances in Mount Rainier National Park. Quaternary Research 18 (1982) 32-51
25. Hessburg, P. F., Mitchell, R. G., & Filip, G. M. (1994). Eastside forest ecosystem health assessment: Historical and current roles of insects and pathogens in eastern Oregon and Washington forested landscapes, Vol. 3. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-327.
26. Hessl A.E., McKenzie D., and Schellhaas R. Drought and Pacific Decadal Oscillation linked to fire occurrence in the inland Pacific Northwest. Ecological Applications 14 (2004) 425-442
27. Heyerdahl E., Brubaker L.B., and Agee J.K. Spatial controls of historical fire regimes: A multiscale example from the interior west, USA. Ecology 82 (2001) 660-678
28. Heyerdahl E., Brubaker L.B., and Agee J.K. Annual and decadal climate forcing of historical fire regimes in the interior Pacific Northwest, USA. The Holocene 12 (2002) 597-604
29. Huff, M. A., & Agee, J. K. (1980). Characteristics of large lightning fires in the Olympic Mountains, Washington. In: Proceedings of the Sixth Conference of Fire and Forest Meteorology (pp. 117-123). Society of American Foresters, Washington DC.
30. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). (2001). Climate Change 2001: Synthesis Report. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland. pp. 184.
31. Johnson E.A., and Wowchuk D.R. Wildfires in the southern Canadian Rocky Mountains and their relationship to mid-tropospheric anomalies. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 23 (1993) 1213-1222
32. Jones J.A. Hydrologic processes and peak discharge response to forest harvest, regrowth, and roads in ten small experimental basins, western Cascades, Oregon. Water Resources Research 36 (2000) 2621-2642
33. Keeton, W. S., Franklin, J. F., & Mote, P. W. (in press). Climate variability, climate change, and forest ecosystems in the Pacific Northwest. In: E. L. Miles, A. K. Snover, and The Climate Impacts Group (Eds), Rhythms of change: An integrated assessment of climate impacts on the Pacific Northwest (Chapter 8). Boston: MIT Press.
34. Keeley J.E. Fire management of California shrubland landscapes. Environmental Management 29 (2002) 395-408
35. Keeley J.E., Fotheringham C.J., and Morais M. Reexamining fire suppression impacts on brushland fire regimes. Science 284 (1999) 1829-1832
36. Lavin M.J. Managing risk to people, structures, and the environment. Fire Management Today 57 (1997) 4-6
37. Lehmkuhl, J. J., Hessburg, P. F., Everett, R. L., Huff, M. H., & Ottmar, R. D. (1994). Historical and current forest landscapes of eastern Oregon and Washington. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-GTR-328.
38. Lenihan J.M., Daly C., Bachelet D., and Neilson R.P. Simulating broad-scale fire severity in a dynamic global vegetation model. Northwest Science 72 (1998) 91-103
39. Mantua N.J., Hare S.R., Zhang Y., Wallace J.M., and Francis R.C. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 78 (1997) 1069-1079
40. McPhaden M.J., et al. The tropical ocean-global atmosphere observing system: A decade of progress. Journal of Geophysical Research 103 (1998) 14169-14240
41. McKenzie D., Gedalof Z., Peterson D.L., and Mote P. Climatic change, wildfire, and conservation. Conservation Biology 18 (2004) 890-902
42. McKenzie, D., Peterson, D. L., & Alvarado, E. (1996). Predicting the effect of fire on large-scale vegetation patterns in North America. USDA Forest Service Research Paper PNW-489.
43. Merriam K.E., Keeley J.E., and Beyers J.L. Fuel breaks affect nonnative species abundance in Californian plant communities. Ecological Applications 16 (2006) 515-527
44. Mote, P. W., Canning, D. J., Fluharty, D. L., Francis, R. C., Franklin, J. F., Hamlet, A. F., Hershman, M., Holmberg, M., Ideker, K. N., Keeton, W. S., Lettenmaier, D. P., Leung, L. R., Mantua, N. J., Miles, E. L., Noble, B., Parandvash, H., Peterson, D. W., Snover, A. K., & Willard, S. R. (1999a). Impacts of Climate Variability and Change, Pacific Northwest. National Atmospheric and Oceanic Administration, Office of Global Programs, and JISAO/SMA Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, WA. 110 pp.
45. Mote, P. W., Keeton, W. S., & Franklin, J. F. (1999b). Decadal variations in forest fire activity in the Pacific Northwest. In: Proceedings of the eleventh conference on Applied Climatology (pp. 155-156). American Meteorological Society, Boston, MA.
46. Mote P.W., Parson E.A., Hamlet A.F., Ideker K.N., Keeton W.S., Lettenmaier D.P., Mantua N.J., Miles E.L., Peterson D.W., Peterson D.L., Slaughter R., and Snover A.K. Preparing for climate change: The water, salmon, and forests of the Pacific Northwest. Climatic Change 61 (2003) 45-88
47. National Assessment Synthesis Team (NAST). Climate change impacts on the United States: The potential consequences of climate variability and change (2000), Cambridge University Press, New York
48. Neilson R.P., and Drapek R.J. Potentially complex biosphere responses to transient global warming. Global Change Biology 4 (1998) 101-117
49. Overpeck J.T., Rind D., and Goldberg R. Climate-induced changes in forest disturbance and vegetation. Nature 343 (1990) 51-53
50. Palmer, W. C. (1965). Meteorological drought. Research Paper No. 45, U.S. Department of Commerce Weather Bureau, Washington DC.
51. Parson, E. A., Mote, P. W., Hamlet, A., Mantua, N., Snover, A., Keeton, W. S., Miles, E., Canning, D., & Gray Ideker, K. (2001). Potential impacts of climate variability and change on the Pacific Northwest. In: National Assessment Synthesis Team (Eds), Climate change impacts on the United States: The potential consequences of climate variability and change (Chapter 9). New York: Cambridge University Press.
52. Pickford S.G., Fahnestock G.R., and Ottmar R. Weather, fuels, and lightning fires in Olympic National Park. Northwest Science 54 (1980) 92-105
53. 2 climate on lightning-caused fires. Journal of Climate 7 (1994) 1484-1495
54. Pyne, S.J., Andrew, P.J., Laven, R.D. (1996). Introduction to wildland fire (2nd ed., p. 769). New York: John Wiley and Sons.
55. Quigley, T., Haynes, M., R. W., & Graham, R. T. (1996). Integrated scientific assessment for ecosystem management in the interior Columbia Basin. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report PNW-382. U.S.
56. Raymond C.L., and Peterson D.L. Fuel treatments alter the effects of wildfire in a mixed-evergreen forest, Oregon, USA. Canadian Journal of Forest Research 35 (2005) 2981-2995
57. Rhode M.S. Fires in the wildland/urban interface: Best command practices. Fire Management Today 64 2 (2004) 27-31
58. Romme W.H., and Turner M.G. Implications of global climate change for biogeographic patterns in the greater Yellowstone ecosystem. Conservation Biology 5 (1991) 373-386
59. Ryan K.C. Vegetation and wildland fire: Implications of global climate change. Environment International 17 (1991) 169-178
60. Sagoff M. Price, principle, and the environment (2004), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK pp. 294
61. Schroeder, M. J., Glovinsky, M., Hendricks, V. F., Hood, F. C., Hull, M. K., Jacobson, H. L., Kirkpatrick, R., Krueger, D. W., Mallory, L. P., Oertel, A. G., Reese, R. H., Sergius, L. A., & Syverson, C. E. (1962). Synoptic weather types associated with critical fire weather. Prepared by the U.S. Department of Commerce, Weather Bureau, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service for the Office of Civil Defense, Office of the Secretary of the Army. U.S. Forest Service, Pacific Southwest Forest and Range Experiment Station, Berkeley, California.
62. Scott, J. H., & Burgan, R. E. (2005). Standard fire behavior fuel models: A comprehensive set for use with Rothermel's SurfaceFire Spread Model. USDA Forest Service General Technical Report RMRS-GTR-153.
63. Summerfelt P. The wildland/urban interface: What's really at risk?. Fire Management Today 63 1 (2002) 4-8
64. Swetnam T.W., and Betancourt J.L. Fire-Southern Oscillation relations in the southwestern U.S. Science 249 (1990) 1017-1020
65. Swetnam T.W., and Lynch A.M. Multicentury, regional-scale patterns of western spruce budworm outbreaks. Ecological Monographs 63 (1993) 399-424
66. Swetnam, T. W., Wickman, B. E., Paul, H. G., & Baisan, C. H. (1995). Historical patterns of Western Spruce Budworm and Douglas-Fir tussock moth outbreaks in the Northern Blue Mountains, Oregon, since AD 1700. USDA Forest Service Research Paper PNW-RP-484.
67. Theobald D. Landscape patterns of exurban growth in the USA from 1980 to 2020. Ecology and Society 10 (2005) 32
68. Theobald, D. M. (2003a). Defining and mapping rural sprawl: Examples from the Northwest US. Growth Management Leadership Alliance white paper. 16 September 2003.
69. Theobald D.M. Targeting conservation action through assessment of protection and exurban threats. Conservation Biology 17 (2003) 1624-1637
70. The Wilderness Society. (2003). Mapping analysis: The healthy forests initiative and the southern California fires. Ecology and Economics Research Department, Science and Policy Brief November 2003, No. 12.
71. Torn M.S., and Fried J.S. Predicting the impacts of global warming on wildland fire. Climate Change 21 (1992) 257-274
72. Truesdale, D. (1995). Fire suppression costs on large fires: a review of the 1994 fire season. Fire and Aviation Management 8.
73. United States General Accounting Office (GAO). (1999). Western National Forests: Nearby communities are increasingly threatened by catastrophic fires. GAO/T-RCED-99-79.
74. Westerling A., Hidalgo H., Cayan D., and Swetnam T. Warming and earlier spring increase western US forest wildfire activity. Science 313 (2006) 940-943
75. Westerling A.L., and Swetnam T.W. Interannual to decadal drought and wildfire in the Western United States. EOS 84 (2003) 545-560
76. Whitlock C. Forests, fire, and climate. Nature 432 (2004) 28-29
77. Zar J.H. Biostatistical Analysis. 3rd ed (1996), Prentice Hall, Upper Saddle River, NJ