Trajectories of alcohol use among adolescent boys and girls: Identification, validation, and sociodemographic characteristics

Psychology of Addictive Behaviors

Volumn 21, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 62-75

  Wiesner, Margit ^a   Weichold, Karina ^b   Silbereisen, Rainer K ^b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HOUSTON   (United States)

^b FRIEDRICH SCHILLER UNIVERSITY JENA   (Germany)

Author keywords

Adolescence; Alcohol use; Identification; Latent growth mixture modeling; Sociodemographic characteristics; Trajectories; Validation

Indexed keywords

ALCOHOL;

ADOLESCENT; ADULT; ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION; ARTICLE; CONTROLLED STUDY; EXTERNAL VALIDITY; FEMALE; FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT; GERMAN DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC; HUMAN; LONGITUDINAL STUDY; MAJOR CLINICAL STUDY; MALE; PATIENT IDENTIFICATION; SEX DIFFERENCE; SOCIOECONOMICS; VALIDATION STUDY;

ADOLESCENT; ADOLESCENT BEHAVIOR; AGE FACTORS; ALCOHOL DRINKING; FEMALE; GERMANY; HUMANS; LONGITUDINAL STUDIES; MALE; MODELS, PSYCHOLOGICAL; PEER GROUP; REPRODUCIBILITY OF RESULTS; SEX FACTORS; SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS;

EID: 33947718743     PISSN: 0893164X     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1037/0893-164X.21.1.62     Document Type: Article

References (64)

1. Akaike, H. (1987). Factor analysis and AIC. Psychometrika, 52, 317-332.
2. Bien, W., Bischoff, P., & Mattstedt, S. (1995). DFG-Projekt Politikorientierungen im Wandel. Teilbericht 1: Gesamtübersicht der im Projekt berücksichtigten Quer- und Längsschnittstudien des ehemaligen Zentralinstituts für Jugendforschung Leipzig aus den Jahren 1968 bis 1990 DFG-project political orientations during times of change. Volume 1: Overview of cross-sectional and longitudinal studies at the Central Institute for Youth Research in Leipzig from 1968 to 1990 included in the project] (DJI-Arbeitspapier 3-116). DJI: Regionale Aussenstelle Leipzig, Germany.
3. Biesanz, J. C., Deeb-Sossa, N., Papadakis, A. A., Bollen, K. A., & Curran, P. J. (2004). The role of coding time in estimating and interpreting growth curve models. Psychological Methods, 9, 30-52.
4. Bundeszentrale für Gesundheitliche Aufklärung (1994). Die Drogenaffinita ̈t Jugendlicher in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland - Wiederholungsbefragung 1993/1994 [Affinity to drugs among adolescents in the Federal Republic of Germany - Repeated Assessment 1993/1994]. Köln, Germany: Bundeszentrale für Gesundheitliche Aufklärung.
5. Bundeszentrale für Gesundheitliche Aufklärung (1998). Die Drogenaffinita ̈t Jugendlicher in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland - Wiederholungsbefragung 1997 [Affinity to drugs among adolescents in the Federal Republic of Germany - Repeated Assessment 1997]. Köln, Germany: Bundeszentrale für Gesundheitliche Aufklärung.
6. Bundeszentrale für Gesundheitliche Aufklärung (2004). Die Drogenaffinita ̈t Jugendlicher in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland - Wiederholungsbefragung 2004 [Affinity to drugs among adolescents in the Federal Republic of Germany - Repeated Assessment 2004]. Köln, Germany: Bundeszentrale für Gesundheitliche Aufklärung.
7. Casswell, S., Pledger, M., & Pratap, S. (2002). Trajectories of drinking from 18 to 26 years: Identification and prediction. Addiction, 97, 1427-1437.
8. Chassin, L., Pitts, S. C., & Prost, J. (2002). Binge drinking trajectories from adolescence to emerging adulthood in a high-risk sample: Predictors and substance abuse outcomes. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 70, 67-78.
9. Cloninger, R. R., Sigvardsson, S., & Bohman, M. (1996). Type I and type II alcoholism: An update. Alcohol Health and Research World, 20, 18-23.
10. Colder, C. R., Campbell, R. T., Ruel, E., Richardson, J. L., & Flay, B. R. (2002). A finite mixture model of growth trajectories of adolescent alcohol use: Predictors and consequences. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 70, 976-985.
11. Fillmore, K. M., Hartka, E., Johnstone, B. M., Leino, V., Motoyoshi, M., & Temple, M. T. (1991). The collaborative alcohol-related longitudinal project. A meta-analysis of life course variation in drinking. British Journal of Addiction, 86, 1221-1268.
12. Friedrich, W. (1997). Zur inhaltlichen und methodischen Forschung am Zentral-institut für Jugendforschung Leipzig [Contents and methods of research at the Central Institute for Youth Research in Leipzig]. In E. Brislinger, B. Hausstein, & E. Riedel (Eds.), Jugend im Osten: Sozialwissenschaftliche Daten und Kontextwissen aus der DDR sowie den neuen Bundesländern, 1969 bis 1995 [Youth in the East: Data From the Social Sciences and Knowledge About the German Democratic Republic and the New "Laender" (1969 to 1995)] (pp. 85-101). Berlin, Germany: Trafo Verlag.
13. Friedrich, W., Förster, P., & Starke, K. (Eds.). (1999). Das Zentralinstitut für Jugendforschung Leipzig 1966-1990 [The Central Institute for Youth Research in Leipzig 1966-1990]. Berlin, Germany: Edition Ost.
14. Hill, K. G., White, H. R., Chung, I-J., Hawkins, J. D., & Catalano, R. F. (2000). Early adult outcomes of adolescent binge drinking: Person- and variable-centered analyses of binge drinking trajectories. Alcoholism, Clinical and Experimental Research, 24, 892-901.
15. Holly, A., Türk, D., Nelson, C. B., Pfister, H., & Wittchen, H. U. (1997). Prävalenz von Alkoholkonsum, Alkoholmissbrauch, und -abhängigkeit bei Jugendlichen und jungen Erwachsenen [Prevalence of alcohol use, abuse and dependence in adolescents and young adults]. Zeitschrift für Klinische Psychologie, 26, 171-178.
16. International Center for Alcohol Policies. (1998). What is a standard drink? ICAP Reports, 5, 1-6.
17. Johnston, L. D., O'Malley, P. M., & Bachman, J. G. (2003). Monitoring the Future national survey results on drug use, 1975-2002 (Vol. II): College students and adults ages 19-40 (NIH Publication No. 03-537). Bethesda, MD: National Institute on Drug Abuse.
18. Jones, B., Nagin, D. S., & Roeder, K. (2001). A SAS procedure based on mixture models for estimating developmental trajectories. Sociological Methods and Research, 29, 374-393.
19. Kass, R. E., & Raftery, A. E. (1995). Bayes Factor. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 90, 773-795.
20. Kirschner, R., & Kleiber, D. (1996). Ausbreitung und Ausbreitungsbedingungen des Konsums illegaler Drogen in Ostdeutschland zwischen 1990 und 1993 [Spread of illegal drug use in Eastern Germany between 1990 and 1993]. Psychomed, 8, 136-142.
21. Kraus, L., Heppekausen, K., Barrera, A., & Orth, B. (2004). Europäische Schülerstudie zu Alkohol und anderen Drogen (ESPAD) [European School Survey Project on Alcohol and Other Drugs]. München, Germany: IFT.
22. Kuhnke, R. (1997). Anlage und Weiterführung der dritten Leipziger Längsschnittstudie [Design and continuation of the third Leipzig longitudinal study]. In E. Brislinger, B. Hausstein, & E. Riedel (Eds.), Jugend im Osten: Sozialwissenschaftliche Daten und Kontextwissen aus der DDR sowie den neuen Bundesländern, 1969 bis 1995 [Youth in the East: Data From the Social Sciences and Knowledge About the German Democratic Republic and the New "Laender" (1969 to 1995)] (pp. 125-132). Berlin, Germany: Trafo Verlag.
23. Lange, E. (1991). Jugendkonsum: Empirische Untersuchungen über Konsummuster, Freizeitverhalten und soziale Milieus bei Jugendlichen in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland [Adolescent substance use: Empirical research on consumption patterns, leisure time behavior, and social milieu among adolescents from the Federal Republic of Germany]. Opladen, Germany: Leske & Budrich.
24. Li, F., Barrera, M., Hops, H., & Fisher, K. J. (2002). The longitudinal influence of peers on the development of alcohol use in late adolescence: A growth mixture analysis. Journal of Behavioral Medicine, 25, 293-315.
25. Li, F., Duncan, T. E., & Hops, H. (2001). Examining developmental trajectories in adolescent alcohol use using piecewise growth mixture modeling analysis. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 62, 199-210.
26. Liu, X., & Kaplan, H. B. (1996). Gender-related differences in circumstances surrounding initiation and escalation of alcohol and other substance use/abuse. Deviant Behavior: An Interdisciplinary Journal, 17, 71-106.
27. Lo, Y., Mendell, N. R., & Rubin, D. B. (2001). Testing the number of components in a normal mixture. Biometrika, 88, 767-778.
28. Müller, K., Hauser, R., Frick, J., & Wagner, G. (1995). Zur Einkommensverteilung und der Einkommenszufriedenheit in den neuen und alten Bundesländern 1990 bis 1993 [Income distribution and satisfaction with income in former Eastern and Western states 1990 to 1993]. In W. Glatzer & H. H. Noll (Eds.), Getrennt vereint-Lebensverhältnisse in Deutschland seit der Wiedervereinigung, Soziale Indikatoren Nr. 18 [Separated and Unified: Life in Germany After Unification, Social Indicators No. 18] (pp. 74-108). Frankfurt, Germany: Campus.
29. Muthén, B. (2003). Statistical and substantive checking in growth mixture modeling: Comment on Bauer and Curran (2003). Psychological Methods, 8, 369-377.
30. Muthén, B., & Muthén, L. (2000a). Integrating person-centered and variable-centered analyses: Growth mixture modeling with latent trajectory classes. Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research, 24, 882-891.
31. Muthén, B., & Muthén, L. (2000b). The development of heavy drinking and alcohol-related problems from ages 18 to 37 in a U.S. national sample. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 61, 290-300.
32. Muthén, B., & Shedden, K. (1999). Finite mixture modeling with mixture outcomes using the EM algorithm. Biometrics, 55, 463-469.
33. Muthén, L. K., & Muthén, B. O. (1998 -2004). Mplus user's guide. Los Angeles: Muthén & Muthén.
34. Nagin, D. S. (1999). Analyzing developmental trajectories: A semi-parametric, group-based approach. Psychological Methods, 4, 139-157.
35. Nagin, D. S. (2005). Group-based modeling of development. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
36. Nagin, D. S., & Tremblay, R. E. (1999). Trajectories of boy's physical aggression, opposition, and hyperactivity on the path to physically violent and nonviolent juvenile delinquency. Child Development, 70, 1181-1196.
37. Noack, P., Hofer, M., Kracke, B., & Klein-Allermann, E. (1995). Adolescents and their parents facing social change in East and West Germany after unification. In P. Noack, M. Hofer, & J. Youniss (Eds.), Psychological responses to social change. Human Development in Changing Environments (pp. 120-148). Berlin, Germany: Walter de Gruyter.
38. Oetting, E. R., & Beauvais, F. (1990). Adolescent drug use: Findings from national and local surveys. Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 58, 382-394.
39. Oxford, M. L., Gilchrist, L. D., Morrison, D. M., Gillmore, M. R., Lohr, M. J., & Lewis, S. M. (2003). Alcohol use among adolescent mothers: Heterogeneity in growth curves, predictors, and outcomes of alcohol use over time. Prevention Science, 4, 15-26.
40. Raftery, A. E. (1995). Bayesian model selection in social research. Sociological Methodology, 25, 111-164.
41. Ramaswamy, V., DeSarbo, W., Reibstein, D., & Robinson, W. (1993). An empirical pooling approach for estimating marketing mix elasticities with PIMS data. Marketing Science, 12, 103-124.
42. Sahner, H. (1996). Städte im Umbruch. In H. Bertram, H. M. Nickel, O. Niedermayer, & G. Trommsdorff (Eds.), Berichte der Kommission für die Erforschung des sozialen und politischen Wandels in den neuen Bundesländern e. V. (Bd. 5: Städte und Regionen -Räumliche Folgen des Transformationsprozesses) [Reports of the commission for the examination of social and political change in the former Eastern states, Vol. 5: Cities and Regions - Spatial consequences of the transformation process] (pp. 447-480). Opladen, Germany: Leske & Budrich.
43. Schafer, J. L. (1997). Analysis of multivariate data. London: Chapman & Hall.
44. Schulenberg, J. E., & Maggs, J. L. (2002). A developmental perspective on alcohol use and heavy drinking during adolescence and the transition to young adulthood. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 14(Suppl.), 54-70.
45. Schulenberg, J. E., O'Malley, P. M., Bachman, J. G., Wadsworth, K. N., & Johnston, L. D. (1996). Getting drunk and growing up: Trajectories of frequent binge drinking during the transition to young adulthood. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 57, 289-304.
46. Schwartz, G. (1978). Estimating the dimension of a model. Annals of Statistics, 6, 461-464.
47. Silbereisen, R. K., Robins, L., & Rutter, M. (1995). Secular trends in substance use: Concepts and data on the impact of social change on alcohol and drug use. In M. Rutter & D. J. Smith (Eds.), Psychosocial disorders in young people: Time trends and their origins (pp. 490-543). Chichester, England: Wiley.
48. Simon, R., Bühringer, G., & Wiblishauser, P. M. (1992). Repräsentativerhebung 1990 zum Konsum und Missbrauch von illegalen Drogen, alkoholischen Getränken, Medikamenten und Tabakwaren [Representative survey 1990 about use and abuse of illegal drugs, alcohol, medicines, and tobacco]. Bonn, Germany: Bundesministerium für Gesundheit.
49. Simon, R., Tauscher, M., & Pfeiffer, T. (1999). Suchtbericht Deutschland 1999 [Report on addictions in Germany 1999]. Hohengehren, Germany: Schneider Verlag.
50. Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen. (2002). 10 jahre Statistisches Landesamt: 1992 bis 2001 [10 years of the Statistical Office: 1992 to 2001]. Kamenz, Germany: Statistisches Landesamt des Freistaates Sachsen.
51. Stice, E., Myers, M. G., & Brown, S. A. (1998). Relations of delinquency to adolescent substance use and problem use: A prospective study. Psychology of Addictive Behaviors, 12, 136-146.
52. Stoolmiller, M. (1995). Using latent growth curve models to study developmental processes. In J. M. Gottman (Ed.), The analysis of change (pp. 103-138). Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum.
53. Strzoda, C. (1996). Freizeitverhalten und Freizeitmuster [Leisure time behavior and leisure time patterns]. In R. K. Silbereisen, L. A. Vaskovic, & J. Zinnecker (Eds.), Jungsein in Deutschland. Jugendliche und junge Erwachsene 1991 und 1996 [Being Young in Germany. Adolescents and Young Adults 1991 and 1996] (pp. 261-280). Opladen, Germany: Leske & Budrich.
54. Tarter, R., Vanyukov, M., Giancola, P., Dawes, M., Blackson, T., Mezzich, A., & Clark, D. B. (1999). Etiology of early age onset substance use disorder: A maturational perspective. Development and Psychopathology, 11, 657-683.
55. Tucker, J. S., Orlando, M., & Ellickson, P. L. (2003). Patterns and correlates of binge drinking trajectories from early adolescence to young adulthood. Health Psychology, 22, 79-87.
56. White, H. R., Johnson, V., & Buyske, S. (2000). Parental modeling and parenting behavior effects on offspring alcohol and cigarette use: A growth curve analysis. Journal of Substance Abuse, 12, 287-310.
57. Wills, T. A., McNamara, G., Vaccaro, D., & Hirky, A. E. (1996). Escalated substance use: A longitudinal grouping analysis from early to middle adolescence. Journal of Abnormal Psychology, 105, 166-180.
58. Windle, M., & Davies, P. T. (1999). Developmental theory and research. In K. E. Leonard & H. T. Blane (Eds.), Psychological theories of drinking and alcoholism (2nd ed., pp. 164-202). New York: Guilford Press.
59. Windle, M., Mun, E-Y., & Windle, R. C. (2005). Adolescent-to-young adulthood heavy drinking trajectories and their prospective predictors. Journal of Studies on Alcohol, 66, 1-10.
60. Winters, K. C., Stinchfield, R. D., Henly, G. A., & Schwartz, R. H. (1991). Validity of adolescent self-reports of alcohol use and other drug involvement. International Journal of Addictions, 25, 1379-1395.
61. Zapert, K., Snow, D. L., & Tebes, J. K. (2002). Patterns of substance use in early through late adolescence. American Journal of Community Psychology, 30, 835-852.
62. Zucker, R. A. (1994). Pathways to alcohol problems and alcoholism: A developmental account of the evidence for multiple alcoholisms and for contextual contributions to risk. In R. A. Zucker, G. M. Boyd, & J. Howard (Eds.), The development of alcohol problems: Exploring the biopsychosocial matrix of risk (NIAAA Research Monograph 26, pp. 255-289). Rockville, MD: Department of Health and Human Services.
63. Zucker, R. A., Chermack, S. T., & Curran, G. M. (2000). Alcoholism: A life span perspective on etiology and course. In A. J. Sameroff, M. Lewis, & S. M. Miller (Eds.), Handbook of developmental psychopathology (2nd ed., pp. 569-587). New York: Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers.
64. Zucker, R. A., Fitzgerald, H. E., & Moses, H. D. (1995). Emergence of alcohol problems and the several alcoholisms: A developmental perspective on etiologic theory and life course trajectory. In D. Cicchetti & D. J. Cohen (Eds.), Developmental psychopathology (Vol. 2, pp. 677-711). New York: Wiley.