메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 10, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 207-237

Model uncertainty and endogenous volatility

Author keywords

Adaptive learning; Lucas model; Model uncertainty; Rational expectations; Volatility

Indexed keywords


EID: 33947598485     PISSN: 10942025     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2006.10.002     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (58)

References (56)
  • 1
    • 12944327754 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Learning to forecast and cyclical behavior of output and inflation
    • Adam K. Learning to forecast and cyclical behavior of output and inflation. Macroeconomic Dynamics 1 (2005) 1-27
    • (2005) Macroeconomic Dynamics , vol.1 , pp. 1-27
    • Adam, K.1
  • 2
    • 33947602632 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adam, K., 2005b. Experimental evidence on the persistence of output and inflation. Economic Journal. In press
  • 3
    • 4043050162 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A scapegoat model of exchange rate fluctuations
    • Bacchetta P., and Van Wincoop E. A scapegoat model of exchange rate fluctuations. American Economic Review 94 (2004) 114-118
    • (2004) American Economic Review , vol.94 , pp. 114-118
    • Bacchetta, P.1    Van Wincoop, E.2
  • 5
    • 33144471492 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation
    • Branch W.A., and Evans G.W. Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation. Journal of Economic Theory 127 (2006) 264-295
    • (2006) Journal of Economic Theory , vol.127 , pp. 264-295
    • Branch, W.A.1    Evans, G.W.2
  • 6
    • 33646348447 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A simple recursive forecasting model
    • Branch W.A., and Evans G.W. A simple recursive forecasting model. Economics Letters 91 (2006) 158-166
    • (2006) Economics Letters , vol.91 , pp. 158-166
    • Branch, W.A.1    Evans, G.W.2
  • 7
    • 14844363934 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Misspecification and consistent expectations in stochastic non-linear economies
    • Branch W.A., and McGough B. Misspecification and consistent expectations in stochastic non-linear economies. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 29 (2005) 659-676
    • (2005) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , vol.29 , pp. 659-676
    • Branch, W.A.1    McGough, B.2
  • 8
    • 33947579349 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Branch, W.A., Carlson, J., Evans, G.W., McGough, B., 2006. Monetary policy, endogenous inattention, and the volatility trade-off. Mimeo
  • 9
    • 0001288049 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • A rational route to randomness
    • Brock W.A., and Hommes C.H. A rational route to randomness. Econometrica 65 (1997) 1059-1160
    • (1997) Econometrica , vol.65 , pp. 1059-1160
    • Brock, W.A.1    Hommes, C.H.2
  • 10
    • 0000921080 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model
    • Brock W.A., and Hommes C.H. Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 22 (1998) 1235-1274
    • (1998) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , vol.22 , pp. 1235-1274
    • Brock, W.A.1    Hommes, C.H.2
  • 13
    • 33947599544 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Chari, V.V., Kehoe, P.J., McGrattan, E.R., 2005. A critique of structural vars using real business cycle theory. W.P. 631. FRB-Minneapolis
  • 14
    • 33947598471 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cho, I.-K., Kasa, K., 2003. Learning dynamics and endogenous currency crises. Mimeo
  • 15
    • 33947594174 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Cho, I.-K., Kasa, K. 2006. Learning and model validation. Mimeo
  • 17
    • 16244417799 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Drifts and volatilities: Monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII US
    • Cogley T.W., and Sargent T.J. Drifts and volatilities: Monetary policies and outcomes in the post WWII US. Review of Economic Dynamics 8 (2005) 262-302
    • (2005) Review of Economic Dynamics , vol.8 , pp. 262-302
    • Cogley, T.W.1    Sargent, T.J.2
  • 18
    • 16244375561 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty
    • Cogley T.W., and Sargent T.J. The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty. Review of Economic Dynamics 8 (2005) 528-563
    • (2005) Review of Economic Dynamics , vol.8 , pp. 528-563
    • Cogley, T.W.1    Sargent, T.J.2
  • 21
    • 0000175026 scopus 로고
    • Expectation calculation and macroeconomic dynamics
    • Evans G.W., and Ramey G. Expectation calculation and macroeconomic dynamics. American Economic Review 82 1 (1992) 207-224
    • (1992) American Economic Review , vol.82 , Issue.1 , pp. 207-224
    • Evans, G.W.1    Ramey, G.2
  • 22
    • 33644654620 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique
    • Evans G.W., and Ramey G. Adaptive expectations, underparameterization and the Lucas critique. Journal of Monetary Economics 53 (2006) 249-264
    • (2006) Journal of Monetary Economics , vol.53 , pp. 249-264
    • Evans, G.W.1    Ramey, G.2
  • 23
    • 38248999672 scopus 로고
    • On the preservation of deterministic cycles when some agents perceive them to be random fluctuations
    • Evans G.W., Honkapohja S., and Sargent T.J. On the preservation of deterministic cycles when some agents perceive them to be random fluctuations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 17 (1989) 705-721
    • (1989) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , vol.17 , pp. 705-721
    • Evans, G.W.1    Honkapohja, S.2    Sargent, T.J.3
  • 24
    • 33947577437 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Fernandez-Villaverde, J., Rubio-Ramirez, J.F., 2006. Estimating macro models: A likelihood approach. Mimeo
  • 25
    • 24644504092 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria
    • Guse E. Stability properties for learning with heterogeneous expectations and multiple equilibria. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 29 (2005) 1623-1642
    • (2005) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , vol.29 , pp. 1623-1642
    • Guse, E.1
  • 26
    • 33947587242 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hansen, L.P., Sargent, T.J., 2005. Misspecification in recursive macroeconomic theory. Manuscript
  • 27
    • 0032388562 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Consistent expectations equilibria
    • Hommes C., and Sorger G. Consistent expectations equilibria. Macroeconomic Dynamics 2 (1998) 287-321
    • (1998) Macroeconomic Dynamics , vol.2 , pp. 287-321
    • Hommes, C.1    Sorger, G.2
  • 28
    • 33947595616 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Hommes, C., Sorger, G., Wagener, F., 2002. Learning to believe in linearity in an unknown nonlinear stochastic economy. Mimeo
  • 29
    • 1642346704 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Learning, large deviations, and recurrent currency crises
    • Kasa K. Learning, large deviations, and recurrent currency crises. International Economic Review 45 (2004) 141-173
    • (2004) International Economic Review , vol.45 , pp. 141-173
    • Kasa, K.1
  • 30
    • 0039447737 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Has the US economy become more stable? A Bayesian approach based on a Markov-switching model of the business cycle
    • Kim C.-J., and Nelson C. Has the US economy become more stable? A Bayesian approach based on a Markov-switching model of the business cycle. Review of Economics and Statistics 81 4 (1999) 608-616
    • (1999) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.81 , Issue.4 , pp. 608-616
    • Kim, C.-J.1    Nelson, C.2
  • 31
    • 0742271636 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The less volatile US economy: A Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations
    • Kim C.-J., Nelson C., and Piger J. The less volatile US economy: A Bayesian investigation of timing, breadth, and potential explanations. Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 22 1 (2004) 80-93
    • (2004) Journal of Business and Economic Statistics , vol.22 , Issue.1 , pp. 80-93
    • Kim, C.-J.1    Nelson, C.2    Piger, J.3
  • 32
    • 0000643498 scopus 로고
    • Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans
    • Kydland F.E., and Prescott E.C. Rules rather than discretion: The inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy 85 (1977) 473-491
    • (1977) Journal of Political Economy , vol.85 , pp. 473-491
    • Kydland, F.E.1    Prescott, E.C.2
  • 33
    • 0000085909 scopus 로고
    • Some international evidence on output-inflation trade-offs
    • Lucas Jr. R.E. Some international evidence on output-inflation trade-offs. American Economic Review 63 (1973) 326-334
    • (1973) American Economic Review , vol.63 , pp. 326-334
    • Lucas Jr., R.E.1
  • 34
    • 33947602212 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Justiniano, A., Primiceri, G., 2006. The time-varying volatility of macroeconomic fluctuations. Mimeo
  • 36
    • 2942724501 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Recurrent hyperinflation and learning
    • Marcet A., and Nicolini J.P. Recurrent hyperinflation and learning. American Economic Review 93 5 (2003) 1476-1495
    • (2003) American Economic Review , vol.93 , Issue.5 , pp. 1476-1495
    • Marcet, A.1    Nicolini, J.P.2
  • 37
    • 38249025567 scopus 로고
    • Convergence of least-squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models
    • Marcet A., and Sargent T.J. Convergence of least-squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models. Journal of Economic Theory 48 (1989) 337-368
    • (1989) Journal of Economic Theory , vol.48 , pp. 337-368
    • Marcet, A.1    Sargent, T.J.2
  • 38
    • 0013291528 scopus 로고
    • Speed of convergence of recursive least squares: Learning with autoregressive moving-average perceptions
    • Kirman A., and Salmon M. (Eds), Basil Blackwell, Oxford
    • Marcet A., and Sargent T.J. Speed of convergence of recursive least squares: Learning with autoregressive moving-average perceptions. In: Kirman A., and Salmon M. (Eds). Learning and Rationality in Economics (1995), Basil Blackwell, Oxford 179-215
    • (1995) Learning and Rationality in Economics , pp. 179-215
    • Marcet, A.1    Sargent, T.J.2
  • 39
    • 0000118629 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Output fluctuations in the United States: What has changed since the early 1980s?
    • McConnell M., and Quiros G.P. Output fluctuations in the United States: What has changed since the early 1980s?. American Economic Review 90 5 (2000) 1464-1476
    • (2000) American Economic Review , vol.90 , Issue.5 , pp. 1464-1476
    • McConnell, M.1    Quiros, G.P.2
  • 40
    • 33645088468 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Shocking escapes
    • McGough B. Shocking escapes. Economic Journal 116 (2006) 507-528
    • (2006) Economic Journal , vol.116 , pp. 507-528
    • McGough, B.1
  • 41
    • 33947597090 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Milani, F., 2005. Expectations, learning, and macroeconomic persistence. Mimeo
  • 42
    • 0001281286 scopus 로고
    • Rational expectations and the theory of price movements
    • Muth J.F. Rational expectations and the theory of price movements. Econometrica 29 (1961) 315-335
    • (1961) Econometrica , vol.29 , pp. 315-335
    • Muth, J.F.1
  • 43
    • 33846906704 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy
    • Chapter 5 in:. Bernanke B.S., and Woodford M. (Eds), National Bureau of Economic Research and Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago
    • Orphanides A., and Williams J.C. Imperfect knowledge, inflation expectations, and monetary policy. Chapter 5 in:. In: Bernanke B.S., and Woodford M. (Eds). Inflation Targeting (2005), National Bureau of Economic Research and Univ. of Chicago Press, Chicago
    • (2005) Inflation Targeting
    • Orphanides, A.1    Williams, J.C.2
  • 44
    • 27144460087 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning and expectations
    • Orphanides A., and Williams J.C. The decline of activist stabilization policy: Natural rate misperceptions, learning and expectations. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 29 (2005) 1927-1950
    • (2005) Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control , vol.29 , pp. 1927-1950
    • Orphanides, A.1    Williams, J.C.2
  • 45
    • 13844304557 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation
    • Owyang M.T. Persistence, excess volatility, and volatility clusters in inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review Nov./Dec. (2001) 41-52
    • (2001) Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review , Issue.Nov.-Dec , pp. 41-52
    • Owyang, M.T.1
  • 49
    • 16244415548 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Impact of priors on convergence and escape from Nash inflation
    • Sargent T.J., and Williams N. Impact of priors on convergence and escape from Nash inflation. Review of Economic Dynamics 8 2 (2005) 360-391
    • (2005) Review of Economic Dynamics , vol.8 , Issue.2 , pp. 360-391
    • Sargent, T.J.1    Williams, N.2
  • 50
    • 4444298525 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Testing for changes in volatility of US macroeconomic time series
    • Sensier M., and van Dijk D. Testing for changes in volatility of US macroeconomic time series. Review of Economics and Statistics 86 (2004) 833-839
    • (2004) Review of Economics and Statistics , vol.86 , pp. 833-839
    • Sensier, M.1    van Dijk, D.2
  • 51
    • 33645747482 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Were there regime switches in US monetary policy?
    • Sims C.A., and Zha T. Were there regime switches in US monetary policy?. American Economic Review 96 1 (2006) 54-81
    • (2006) American Economic Review , vol.96 , Issue.1 , pp. 54-81
    • Sims, C.A.1    Zha, T.2
  • 52
    • 33947587011 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Stock, J., Watson, M.W., 2003. Has the business cycle changed? Evidence and explanations. In: FRB Kansas City symposium. Jackson Hole, WY, August 28-30, 2003, pp. 9-56
  • 54
    • 33947586161 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Williams, N., 2004a. Escape dynamics in learning models. Mimeo
  • 55
    • 33947595615 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Williams, N., 2004b. Stability and long-run equilibrium in stochastic fictitious play. Mimeo
  • 56
    • 84884050052 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, NJ
    • Woodford M. Interest and Prices (2003), Princeton Univ. Press, Princeton, NJ
    • (2003) Interest and Prices
    • Woodford, M.1


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.