On ecological fallacy, assessment errors stemming from misguided variable selection, and the effect of aggregation on the outcome of epidemiological study

Journal of Exposure Science and Environmental Epidemiology

Volumn 17, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 106-121

  Portnov, Boris A ^a   Dubnov, Jonathan ^a,b   Barchana, Micha ^a,b  

^a UNIVERSITY OF HAIFA   (Israel)

^b MINISTRY OF HEALTH   (Israel)

Author keywords

Air pollution; Data aggregation; Ecological fallacy; Geographic information systems (GIS); Health effects; Pulmonary function tests

Indexed keywords

COAL;

AIR POLLUTION; ANALYTICAL ERROR; ARTICLE; DATA ANALYSIS; HEALTH CARE POLICY; HEALTH STATUS; HUMAN; ISRAEL; LUNG FUNCTION TEST; OUTCOME ASSESSMENT; POPULATION RESEARCH; QUESTIONNAIRE; SCHOOL CHILD; STATISTICAL ANALYSIS; VALIDATION STUDY;

CHILD; ECOLOGY; EPIDEMIOLOGIC STUDIES; GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION SYSTEMS; HEALTH STATUS INDICATORS; HUMANS; ISRAEL; RESPIRATORY FUNCTION TESTS;

EID: 33947281722     PISSN: 15590631     EISSN: 1559064X     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1038/sj.jes.7500533     Document Type: Article

References (55)

1. American Thoracic Society. Standardization of spirometry, 1994 update. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 1995: 152(3): 1107-1136.
2. Anselin L. Spatial Econometrics. Bruton Center, School of Social Sciences, University of Texas: Dallas, TX, 1999.
3. Association of Towns for Environmental Protection. Annual Report for 2004. Hadera, Israel [in Hebrew] (available at: http://www.igudhadera.co.il/) 2005.
4. Bell M.L. The use of ambient air quality modeling to estimate individual and population exposure for human health research: a case study of ozone in the Northern Georgia Region of the United States. Env Int 2006: 32(5): 586-593.
5. Brauer M., Hoek G., van Vliet P., Meliefste K., Fischer P., and Gehring U., et al. Estimating long-term average particulate air pollution concentrations: application of traffic indicators and geographic information systems. Epidemiology 2003: 14(2): 228-239.
6. Burrough P.A., and McDonnell R.A. Principles of Geographical Information Systems. Oxford University Press: New York, 1998.
7. Cliff A.D., and Ord J.K. Spatial processes - Models and Applications. Pion: London, 1981.
8. Cockings S., Dunn C.E., Bhopal R.S., and Walker D.R. Users' perspectives on epidemiological, GIS and point pattern approaches to analyzing environment and health data. Health Place 2004: 10(2): 169-182.
9. Dubnov J., Barchana M., Rishpon S., Leventhal A., Segal I., Carel R., and Portnov B.A. Estimating the effect of air pollution from a coal-fired power station on the development of children's pulmonary function. Environ Res (in press).
10. Elliott P., Cuzick J., English D., and Stern R., (Eds.). Geographical and Environmental Epidemiology. Methods for Small Area Studies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1992 (1996 reprint) 404 pp.
11. Elliott P., and Wartenberg D. Spatial epidemiology: current approaches and future challenges. Environ Health Perspect 2004: 112(9): 998-1006.
12. Enright P.L., Linn W.S., Avol E.L., Margolis H.G., Gong Jr H., and Peters J.M. Quality of Spirometry Test Performance in Children and Adolescents Experience in a Large Field Study. Chest 2000: 118: 665-671.
13. Felsenstein D., and Portnov B.A., (Eds.). Regional Disparities in Small Countries. Springer Verlag: Heidelberg, 2005.
14. Feris B.G. Recommended respiratory disease questionnaire for use with adults and children in epidemiological research. Epidemiology standardization project. Am Rev Respir Dis 1978: 118: 1-120.
15. Gauderman W.J., Avol E.L., Gilliland F., Vora H., Thomas D., and Berhane K., et al. The effect of air pollution on lung development from 10 to 18 years of age. N Engl J Med 2004: 351: 1057-1067.
16. Gauderman W.J., McConnell R., Gilliland F., London S., Thomas D., and Avol E.L., et al. Association between air pollution and lung function growth in Southern California children. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 2000: 162: 1383-1390.
17. Gehlke C., and Biehl K. Certain effects of grouping upon the size of the correlation coefficient in census tract material. J Am Statist Assoc 1934: 29: 169-170.
18. Getis A., and Ord J.K. The analysis of spatial association by use of distance statistics. Geogr Anal 1992: 24(3): 189-206.
19. Glaeser E.L., Kallal H.D., Scheinkman J.A., and Shleifer A. Growth in cities. J Political Econ 1992: 100(6): 1126-1152.
20. Goodchild M.F., Sun G., and Yang S. Development and test of an error model for categorical data. Int J Geogr Inf Syst 1992: 6(2): 87-104.
21. Goren A.I., Goldsmith J.R., Hellmann S., and Brenner S. Follow-up of schoolchildren in the vicinity of a coal-fired power plant in Israel. Environ Health Perspect 1991: 94: 101-105.
22. Goren A.I., and Hellmann S. Respiratory conditions among schoolchildren and their relationship to environmental tobacco smoke and other combustion products. Arch Environ Health 1995: 50(2): 112-118.
23. Goren A.I., Hellmann S., and Glaser E.D. Use of outpatient clinics as a health indicator for communities around a coal-fired power plant. Environ Health Perspect 1995: 103(12): 1110-1115.
24. Gotway C., and Young L.J. Combining incompatible spatial data. J Am Statist Assoc 2002: 97(48): 632-647.
25. Greenland S. Ecologic versus individual-level sources of bias in ecologic estimates of contextual health effects. Int J Epidemiol 2001: 30(6): 1343-1350.
26. Greenland S., and Morgenstern H. Ecological bias, confounding, and effect modification. Int J Epidemiol 1989: 18(1): 269-274.
27. Greenland S., and Robins J. Invited commentary: ecological studies - biases, misconceptions, and counterexamples. Am J Epidemiol 1994: 139(8): 747-760.
28. Hankinson J., Odencrantz J., and Fedan K. Spirometric reference values from a sample of the general US population.. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 1999: 159: 179-187.
29. Heuvelink G.B.M., and Burrough P.A. Propagation of errors in spatial modeling with GIS. Int. J Geogr Inf Syst 1989: 3(4): 303-322.
30. Jedrychowski W., Maugeri U., and Jedrychowska-Bianchi I. Body growth rate in preadolescent children and outdoor air quality. Environ Res 2002: 90(1): 12-20.
31. Lasserre V., Guihenneuc-Jouyaux C., and Richardson S. Biases in ecological studies: utility of including within-area distribution of confounders. Stat Med 2000: 19(1): 45-59.
32. McCoy J., and Johnston K. Using ArcGIS Spatial Analyst. ESRI: Redlands, CA, 2001.
33. Minami M., and Environmental Systems Research Institute Using ArcMap: GIS by ESRI. ESRI: Redlands, California, 2000 pp. 365-392.
34. Morgenstern H. Ecologic studies in epidemiology: concepts, principles, and methods. Annu Rev Public Health 1995: 16: 61-81. (Review).
35. Morgenstern H., and Thomas D. Principles of study design in environmental epidemiology. Environ Health Perspect 1993: 101(Suppl 4): 23-38.
36. Nuckols J.R., Ward M.H., and Jarup L. Using geographic information systems for exposure assessment in environmental epidemiology studies. Environ Health Perspect 2004: 112(9): 1007-1015.
37. Openshaw S. The modifiable areal unit problem. In: Concepts and Techniques in Modern Geography, Monograph Series. Geo Books: London, 1984 38, 41 pp.
38. Pekkanen J., and Pearce N. Environmental epidemiology: challenges and opportunities. Environ Health Perspect 2001: 109(1): 1-5.
39. Peled R., Bibi H., Pope III C.A., Nir P., Shiachi R., and Scharff S. Differences in lung function among school children in communities in Israel. Arch Environ Health 2001: 56(1): 89-95.
40. Peters J.M., Avol E.L., Gauderman W.J., Linn W.S., Navidi W., and London S.J., et al. A study of twelve southern California communities with differing levels and types of air pollution: II. Effects on pulmonary function.. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 1999a: 159: 768-775.
41. Peters J.M., Avol E.L., Navidi W., London S.J., Gauderman W.J., and Lurmann F., et al. A study of twelve Southern California communities with differing levels and types of air pollution: I. Prevalence of respiratory morbidity. Am J Respir Crit Care Med 1999b: 159: 760-767.
42. Pikhart H., Bobak M., Kriz B., Danova J., Celko M.A., and Prikazsky V., et al. Outdoor air concentrations of nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide and prevalence of wheezing in school children. Epidemiology 2000: 11(2): 153-160.
43. Pope III C.A., Burnett R.T., Thun M.J., Calle E.E., Krewski D., and Kazuhiko I., et al. Lung cancer, cardiopulmonary mortality, and long-term exposure to fine particulate air pollution. JAMA 2002: 287: 1132-1141.
44. Pope III C.A., Burnett R.T., Thurston G.D., Thun M.J., Calle E.E., and Krewski D., et al. Cardiovascular mortality and long-term exposure to particulate air pollution: epidemiological evidence of general pathophysiological pathways of diseases. Circulation 2004: 109: 71-77.
45. Robinson W.S. Ecological correlations and the behavior of individuals. Am Sociol Rev 1950: 15: 351-357.
46. Rothman K.J. Modern Epidemiology. Little, Brown and Co: Boston, 1986.
47. Rothman K.J. Methodological Frontiers in Environmental Epidemiology. Environ Health Perspect 1993: 101(Suppl 4): 19-21.
48. Salway R., and Wakefield J. Sources of bias in ecological studies of non-rare events. Env Ecol Statist 2005: 12: 321-347.
49. Samet J.M ., Dominici F., Curriero F.C., Coursac I., and Zeger S. Fine particulate air pollution and mortality in 20 US cities, 1987-1994. N Engl J Med 2000: 343: 1742-1749.
50. Schwartz J. Air pollution and children's health. Pediatrics 2004: 113(4 Suppl): 1037-1043. (Review).
51. Scoggins A., Kjellstrom T., Fisher G., Connor J., and Gimson N. Spatial analysis of annual air pollution exposure and mortality. Sci Total Environ 2004: 321(1-3): 71-85.
52. Selvin H.C. Durkheim's suicide and problems of empirical research. Am J Sociol 1958: 63(6): 607-619.
53. Unwin D.J. GIS, spatial analysis and spatial statistics. Prog Human Geogr 1996: 20(4): 540-551.
54. Veregin H. Developing and testing of an error propagation model for GIS overlay operations. Int J Geogr Inf Syst 1995: 9(6): 595-619.
55. Wakefield J., and Shaddick G. Health-exposure modeling and the ecological fallacy. Biostatistics 2005: 7(3): 438-455.