How far can a state-of-the-art NPV model take you in decision making? (SPE99627)

Society of Petroleum Engineers, 68th European Association of Geoscientists and Engineers Conference and Exhibition, incorporating SPE EUROPEC 2006, EAGE 2006: Opportunities in Mature Areas

Volumn 2, Issue , 2006, Pages 1157-1163

  Pedersen, F B ^a   Hanssen, T H ^a   Aasheim, T I ^a  

^a DNV GL   (Norway)

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DECISION MAKING; HYDROCARBONS; OFFSHORE OIL FIELDS; PETROLEUM RESERVOIRS; RISK ASSESSMENT;

DEBOTTLENECKING; FLUID REGIMES; HYDROCARBON PROVINCE; RISK FACTORS;

OIL FIELD DEVELOPMENT;

EID: 33947208369     PISSN: None     EISSN: None     Source Type: Conference Proceeding    
DOI: None     Document Type: Conference Paper

References (13)

1. Goodwin, O. and G. Wright, "Decision Analysis for Management Judgement", Wiley, Chichester, (1991)
2. Raiffa, H., "Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices under Uncertainty", Addison Wesley, Reading, MA, (1968)
3. Jonkman, R.M. et. Al, "Best Practices and Methods in Hydrocarbon Resource Estimation, Production and Emissions Forecasting, Uncertainty Evaluation and Decision Making", SPE Paper 65144, SPE European Petroleum Conference, Paris, France, 24-25 October 2000.
4. Simpson, G.S. et. Al, "The Application of Probabilistic and Quantitative Methods to Asset Management Decision Making" SPE Paper 59455, Asia Pacific Conference on Integrated Modelling for Asset Management, Yokohama, Japan, 25-26 April 2000.
5. Simpsons, G.S., F.E. Lamb, J.H. Finch and N.C. Dinnie, "The Application of Probabilistic and Quantitative Methods to Asset management Decision Making", paper SPE 59455 presented at the 2000 Asia Pacific Conference on Integrated Modeling for Asset management, Yokohama, Japan, Apr. 25-26 (2000).
6. For a general discussion see also e.g. Lovallo, D. and O. Sibony, "Distortions and deceptions in strategic decisions", The McKinsey Quarterly, Number 1, (2006).
7. For an overview of NPV modelling, see e.g. Hoper III, H.T, "Probabilistic Prospect Evaluation With Spreadsheets", paper SPE 68595 presented at the SPE Hydrocarbon Economics and Evaluation Symposium, 2-3 April, Dallas, Texas (2001).
8. Copeland, T E, J.F. Weston, "Financial Theory and Corporate Policy", Addison Wesley,Boston, Mass, (1992)
9. Lorentzen, R., "Portfolio Evaluation under Uncertainty", Telektronikk 3/4, (2003)
10. For an overview of real options models, see e.g. Dias, M.A.G.: "Valuation of Exploration & Production Assets: An Overview of Real Options Models" Journal of Petroleum Science and Engineering, vol. 44 (1-2), pp.93-114. (2004).
11. Trigeorgis, L., Real Options -Managerial Flexibility and Strategy in Resource Allocation, MIT Press (2000)
12. Jensen, M. C. og W. H. Meckling, "Theory of the Firm: Managerial Behaviour, Agency Costs and Ownership Structure", Journal of Financial Economics, 3: 305-360, (1976)
13. Jensen, M, "Agency costs of free cash flow, corporate finance and takeovers", American Economic Review, 76, 323-329, (1986)