A framework for understanding uncertainty and its mitigation and exploitation in complex systems

IEEE Engineering Management Review

Volumn 34, Issue 3, 2006, Pages 81-94

  McManus, Hugh ^a,b,c   Hastings, Daniel ^c,d,e,f  

^a Metis Design   (United States)

^b Research Consortium

^c AIAA   (United States)

^d MIT Engineering Systems Division

^e MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY   (United States)

^f International Academy of Astronautics

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

HUMAN RESOURCE MANAGEMENT; INDUSTRIAL MANAGEMENT; PROFESSIONAL ASPECTS; RISK MANAGEMENT; STRATEGIC PLANNING;

COMPLEX SYSTEMS EXPLOITATION; UNCERTAINTY PREDICTION;

SYSTEMS ENGINEERING;

EID: 33947197638     PISSN: 03608581     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1109/EMR.2006.261384     Document Type: Article

References (25)

1. Benjamin, J. L., and Paté-Cornell, M. E., "A Risk Chair for Concurrent Design Engineering: A Satellite Swarm Illustration," Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2004, pp. 51-59.
2. Weigel, A. L., and Hastings, D. E., "Measuring the Value of Designing for Uncertain Future Downward Budget Instabilities," Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2004, pp. 111-119.
3. Weigel, A. L., and Hastings, D. E., "Evaluating the Cost and Risk Impacts of Launch Choices," Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2004, pp. 103-110.
4. Garber, R., and Paté-Cornell, M. E., "Modeling the Effects of Dispersion of Design Teams on System Failure risk," Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2004, pp. 60-68.
5. deNeufville, R., "Uncertainty Management for Engineering Systems Planning and Design," Engineering Systems Symposium, MIT. Cambridge, MA, 2004.
6. McNutt, R. T., "Reducing DoD Product Development Time: The Role of the Schedule Development Process," Doctoral thesis, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1998.
7. Thunnissen, D. P., "A Method for Determining Margins in Conceptual Design," Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2004, pp. 85-92.
8. McManus, H. L., Hastings, D. E. and Warmkessel, J. M., "New Methods for Rapid Architecture Selection and Preliminary Design," Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2004, pp. 10-19.
9. Walton, M. A., and Hastings, D. E., "Applications of Uncertainty Analysis Applied to Architecture Selection of Satellite Systems," Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2004, pp. 75-84.
10. NASA Systems Engineering Handbook, SP-61OS, June 1995, section 4.6.
11. Walton, Myles A., "Managing Uncertainty in Space Systems Conceptual Design Using Portfolio Theory," Doctoral Thesis in Aeronautics and Astronautics, June 2003, Chapter 3.
12. Saleh, Joseph H., Hastings, D. E. and Newman, D. J., "Flexibility in System Design and Implications for Aerospace Systems," Acta Astronautica, Vol. 53, 2003, pp. 927-944.
13. J. Saleh, E. Lamassoure and D. Hastings, "Space Systems Flexibility Provided by On-Orbit Servicing I," Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Volume 39, Number 4, pp. 551-560, 2002.
14. E. Lamassoure, J. Saleh and D. Hastings, "Space Systems Flexibility Provided by On-Orbit Servicing II," Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Volume 39, Number 4, pp. 561-570, 2002.
15. Saleh, J. H., Marais, K. S., Hastings, D. E., and Newman, D. J., "The Case for Flexibility in System Design," INCOSE 2002 International Symposium, July-August 2002, Las Vegas, NV.
16. Roberts, Christopher J., "Architecting Evolutionary Strategies Using Spiral Development for Space Based Radar," Masters Thesis in Technology and Policy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, June 2003.
17. Spaulding, T. J., Tools for Evolutionary Acquisition: A Study Of Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration (MATE) Applied to the Space Based Radar (SBR)," Masters theses in Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, June 2003.
18. Derleth, Jason E., "Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration and Its Application to Evolutionary Acquisition," Master's Thesis in Aeronautics and Astronautics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, June 2003.
19. Wolfowitz, P., Memorandum: "Defense Acquisition," Office of the Deputy Secretary of Defense, 30 Oct 2002.
20. See, for example, Paté-Cornell, M. E., and Dillon, R., "Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis for Programs of Dependent Projects Involving Critical Systems and unmanned Space Mission Illustration," Proceedings of PSAM5: International Conference on Probabilistic Safety Assessment and Management, Vol. 1, Osaka, Japan, Nov. 2000, pp. 203-209,
21. and garber, R., and Paté-Cornell, M. E., "Modeling The Effects of Dispersion of Design Teams on System Failure Risk," Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2004, pp. 60-68.
22. Ross, A. M., Diller, N. P., Hastings, D. E., and Warmkessel, J. M., "Multi-Attribute Tradespace Exploration with Concurrent Design as a Front-End for Effective Space System Design," Journal of Spacecraft and Rockets, Vol. 41, No. 1, 2004, pp. 20-28.
23. McManus, H. L. and Schuman, T. E., "Understanding the Orbital Transfer Vehicle Trade Space," Proceedings of AIAA Space 2003, Long Beach, CA, Sept. 2003.
24. Brown, Owen, "Reducing Risk of Large Scale Space Systems Using a Modular Architecture," Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.
25. NASA Systems Engineering Handbook National Aeronautics and Space Administration, SP-610S, June 1995.