In search of the natural rate of unemployment

Journal of Monetary Economics

Volumn 54, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 550-564

  King, Thomas B ^a   Morley, James ^b  

^a FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD   (United States)

^b WASHINGTON UNIVERSITY   (United States)

Author keywords

Natural rate of unemployment; Phillips curve; Search theory; Sectoral shifts; Structural vector autoregression

Indexed keywords

EID: 33847697391     PISSN: 03043932     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.11.002     Document Type: Article

References (34)

1. Abraham K.G. Help-wanted advertising, job vacancies, and unemployment. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1 (1987) 207-243
2. Aghion P., and Howitt P. Growth and unemployment. Review of Economic Studies 61 3 (1994) 477-494
3. Ando A., and Brayton F. Prices, wages, and employment in the US economy: a traditional model and tests of some alternatives. In: Cross R. (Ed). The Natural Rate of Unemployment: Reflections of 25 Years of the Hypothesis (1995), Cambridge University Press, Cambridge 256-298
4. Atkeson A., and Ohanian L.E. Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?" Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Quarterly Review, Winter 25 1 (2001) 2-11
5. Ball L., and Mankiw N.G. The NAIRU in theory and practice. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Fall 16 4 (2002) 115-136
6. Barro R.J., and Gordon D.B. A positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model. Journal of Political Economy 91 (1983) 589-610
7. Beveridge S., and Nelson C.R. A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the business cycle. Journal of Monetary Economics 7 (1981) 151-174
8. Blanchard O.J., and Quah D. Dynamic effects of aggregate demand and supply disturbances. American Economic Review, September 79 4 (1989) 655-673
9. Caballero R.J., and Hammour M.L. The cleansing effect of recessions. American Economic Review 84 5 (1994) 1350-1368
10. Den Hann W.J., Ramey G., and Watson J. Job destruction and propagation of shocks. American Economic Review 90 3 (2000) 482-498
11. Fair R.C. Testing the NAIRU model for the United States. Review of Economics and Statistics 82 1 (2000) 64-71
12. Friedman M. The role of monetary policy. American Economic Review, March 58 1 (1968) 1-17
13. Gomes J., Jeremy G., and Sergio R. Equilibrium unemployment. Journal of Monetary Economics 48 (2001) 109-152
14. Gordon R.J. The time-varying NAIRU and its implications for economic policy. Journal of Economic Perspectives, Winter 11 1 (1997) 11-32
15. Granger C., and Newbold P. Spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics 2 (1974) 111-120
16. Hall R.E. Job loss, job finding, and unemployment in the US economy over the past fifty years. In: Gertler M., and Rogoff K. (Eds). NBER Macroeconomics Annual (2005), MIT Press, Cambridge 101-138
17. Ireland P.N. Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?. Journal of Monetary Economics, October 44 (1999) 279-291
18. Junh C., Murphy K.M., and Topel R.H. Why has the natural rate of unemployment increased over time?. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 2 (1991) 75-126
19. King R.G., and Watson M.W. The post-war US Phillips curve: a revisionist econometric history. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 41 (1994) 157-219
20. Lilien D. Sectoral shifts and cyclical unemployment. Journal of Political Economy 90 (1982) 777-793
21. Mortensen D.T., and Pissarides C.A. Job creation and destruction in the theory of unemployment. Review of Economic Studies 61 3 (1994) 397-415
22. Orphanides A. Monetary-policy rules and the great inflation. American Economic Review, May 92 2 (2002) 115-120
23. Papell D.H., Murray C.J., and Ghiblawi H. The structure of unemployment. Review of Economics and Statistics 82 (2000) 309-315
24. Phelps E.S. Structural Slumps: The Modern Equilibrium Theory of Unemployment, Interest, and Assets (1994), Harvard University Press, Cambridge
25. Phillips P.C. Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics. Journal of Econometrics 33 (1986) 311-340
26. Pissarides C.A. Search, wage bargains, and cycles. Review of Economic Studies 54 3 (1987) 473-483
27. Pissarides C.A. Equilibrium Unemployment Theory. Second ed (2000), MIT Press, Cambridge
28. Pissarides, C.A., Vallanti, G., 2004. Productivity growth and employment: theory and panel estimates."Working paper (November 2004).
29. Salemi M.K. Estimating the natural rate of unemployment and testing the natural rate hypothesis. Journal of Applied Econometrics 14 (1999) 1-25
30. Shimer R. Why is the unemployment rate so much lower?. In: Bernanke B.S., and Rotemberg J.J. (Eds). NBER Macroeconomics Annual (1998), MIT Press, Cambridge 11-61
31. Shimer R. The cyclicality of hires, separations, and job-to-job transitions. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 87 4 (2005) 493-507
32. Staiger D., Stock J.H., and Watson M.W. How precise are estimates of the natural rate of unemployment?. In: Romer C.D., and Romer D.H. (Eds). Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy (1997), University of Chicago Press, Chicago 195-242
33. Staiger D., Stock J.H., and Watson M.W. Prices, wages and the US NAIRU in the 1990s. In: Krueger A.B., and Solow R.M. (Eds). The Roaring Nineties: Can Full Employment Be Sustained? (2001), Russell Sage Foundation, New York 3-60
34. Weiner S.E. New estimates of the natural rate of unemployment. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. Economic Review 4 (1993) 53-69