Self-fulfilling expectations and the inflation of the 1970s: Evidence from the Livingston Survey

Journal of Monetary Economics

Volumn 54, Issue 2, 2007, Pages 433-459

  Leduc, Sylvain ^a   Sill, Keith ^b   Stark, Tom ^b  

^a FEDERAL RESERVE BOARD   (United States)

^b FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF PHILADELPHIA   (United States)

Author keywords

Expectations; Inflation; Monetary policy; Time series model

Indexed keywords

EID: 33847629310     PISSN: 03043932     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2005.08.019     Document Type: Article

References (31)

1. Albenesi S., Chari V.V., and Christiano L.J. Expectation traps and monetary policy. Review of Economic Studies 70 (2003) 715-741
2. Barksy, R.B., Kilian, L., 2002. Do we really know that oil caused the great stagflation? a monetary alternative. In: NBER Macroeconomics Annual, vol. 16. MIT Press, Cambridge, London.
3. Barro R.J., and Gordon D.B. A positive theory of monetary policy in a natural rate model. Journal of Political Economy 91 (1983) 589-610
4. Bernanke B.S., Gertler M., and Watson M.W. Systematic monetary policy and the effects of oil price shocks. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1 (1997) 91-142
5. Blinder A.S. Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation (1979), Academic Press, New York
6. Blinder A.S. Anatomy of double-digit inflation in the 1970s. In: Hall R. (Ed). Inflation: Causes and Effects (1982), University of Chicago Press, Chicago 261-282
7. Chari V.V., Christiano L.J., and Eichenbaum M. Expectation traps and discretion. Journal of Economic Theory 2 (1998) 462-492
8. Christiano L.J., and Gust C.J. Taylor rules in a limited participation model. De Economist 147 (1999) 437-460
9. Christiano L.J., and Gust C.J. The expectations trap hypothesis. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago Economic Perspectives 24 (2000) 21-39
10. Clarida R., Gali J., and Gertler M. Monetary policy rules and macroeconomic stability: evidence and some theory. Quarterly Journal of Economics 115 (2000) 147-180
11. Croushore, D., 1997. The Livingston survey: still useful after all these years. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Business Review, 15-27
12. DeLong, B.J., 1997. America's peacetime inflation: the 1970s. In: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy. Studies in Business Cycles, vol. 30. National Bureau of Economic Research.
13. Edelberg W., Eichenbaum M., and Fisher J.D.M. Understanding the effects of a shock to government purchases. Review of Economic Dynamics 2 (1999) 166-206
14. Eichenbaum M. Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending: a comment. Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy 48 (1998) 195-209
15. Francis, N., Ramey, V.A., 2002. Is the technology-driven business cycle hypothesis dead? National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 8726.
16. Frye, J., Gordon, R.J., 1980. The variance and acceleration of inflation in the 1970s: alternative explanatory models and methods. National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper No. 0551.
17. Goodfriend M. Interest rate policy and the inflation scare problem: 1979-1992. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Quarterly 79 (1993) 1-24
18. Hamilton J.D. Oil and the macroeconomy since world war II. Journal of Political Economy 91 (1983) 228-248
19. Hamilton J.D. What is an oil shock?. Journal of Econometrics 113 (2003) 363-398
20. Hamilton J.D., and Herrera A.M. Oil shocks and aggregate macroeconomic behavior: the role of monetary policy. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 36 (2004) 265-286
21. Hanson M.S. The price puzzle reconsidered. Journal of Monetary Economics 51 (2004) 1385-1414
22. Ireland P.N. Does the time-consistency problem explain the behavior of inflation in the United States?. Journal of Monetary Economics 44 (1999) 279-291
23. Kilian L. Small-sample confidence intervals for impulse response functions. Review of Economics and Statistics 80 (1998) 218-230
24. Kydland F., and Prescott E.C. Rules rather than discretion: the inconsistency of optimal plans. Journal of Political Economy 85 (1977) 473-491
25. Leduc S., and Sill D.K. A quantitative analysis of oil shocks, systematic monetary policy, and economic downturns. Journal of Monetary Economics 51 (2004) 781-808
26. Lubik T.A., and Schorfheide F. Computing sunspot equilibria in linear rational expectations models. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 28 (2003) 273-285
27. Lubik T.A., and Schorfheide F. Testing for indeterminacy: an application to U.S. monetary policy. American Economic Review 94 (2004) 190-217
28. MacKinnon, J.G., 1991. Critical values for cointegration tests. In: Engle, R.F., Granger, C.W.J. (Ed.), Long-Run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration. Oxford University Press, London.
29. Orphanides A. Monetary policy rules, macroeconomic stability and inflation: a view from the trenches. Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking 36 (2004) 151-176
30. Ramey V.A., and Shapiro M.D. Costly capital reallocation and the effects of government spending. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 48 (1998) 145-194
31. Sims, C.J., Zha, T., 2006. Were there regime switches in US monetary policy. American Economic Review 96, 54-81.