ASEAN and Northeast Asian energy security: Cooperation or competition?

East Asia

Volumn 23, Issue 3, 2006, Pages 67-90

  Thomson, Elspeth ^a  

^a NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE   (Singapore)

Author keywords

ASEAN; Co operation; Competition; Energy; Northeast Asia; Security

Indexed keywords

ASEAN; ENERGY USE; FOSSIL FUEL; FUEL CONSUMPTION; INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION;

ASIA; EURASIA; NORTHEAST ASIA;

EID: 33847418760     PISSN: 10966838     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s12140-006-0011-4     Document Type: Article

References (75)

1. See APERC's website at [http://www.ieej.or.jp/aperc/about_aperc.html] (accessed on 13 August 2006).
2. "ASEAN + 3" refers to ASEAN plus China, Japan and Korea. The ASEAN has ten members: Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam. In this article, China, Japan and South Korea are together referred to as "Northeast Asia". Information specifically about Hong Kong and Taiwan is included wherever possible.
3. Joint Ministerial Statement. "Forging Closer ASEAN + 3 Energy Partnership," 2004 at [http://www.eppo.go.th/inter/phil2004/ ASEAN-AMEM+3-JMS.html] (accessed on 3 March 2006).
4. For direct evidence of this trend, see ASEAN Secretariat, ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2005 (Jakarta: ASEAN, 2005), Chapter VI;
5. ASEAN Secretariat. Statistics of Foreign Direct Investment in ASEAN (Jakarta: ASEAN Secretariat, 2003);
6. and United Conference on Trade and Development, World Investment Directory: Foreign Direct Investment and Corporate Data, Asia and the Pacific (New York and Geneva: UN, various years).
7. The most relevant book, primarily political in approach, is Robert A. Manning's The Asian Energy Factor: Myths and Dilemmas of Energy, Security and the Pacific Future (New York: Palgrave, 2000).
8. Samples of other research to date include: APEC Energy Demand and Supply Outlook (Tokyo: Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, 1998);
9. Asian Energy Markets: Dynamics and Trends, (Abu Dhabi: Emirates Center for Strategic Studies and Research, 2004);
10. Fereidun Fesharaki, "Energy and the Asian Security Nexus", Journal of International Affairs 53: 1 (Fall 1999), 85-100;
11. Paul Horsnell, Oil in Asia: Markets, Trading, Refining and Deregulation. (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1997);
12. Kent E. Calder, "Asia's Empty Tank", Foreign Affairs 75:2 (Mar-Apr 1996), 55-70.
13. The International Energy Agency (IEA)'s, Petroleum Information, Coal Information, and Natural Gas Information are all published annually in Paris by the OECD and JEA;
14. OECD, International Trade by Commodity Statistics 1999/2004, vols. 2 and 3 (Paris: OECD, 2005).
15. Japan Statistical Yearbook (Tokyo: Nihon Tokei Kyokai, 2006);
16. Zhongguo shangwu nianjian (China Commerce Yearbook), (Beijing: Zhongguo shangwu chubanshe, 2005);
17. and Korea Statistical Yearbook (Seoul: Economic Planning Board, 2005).
18. The author consulted the official statistical yearbooks of Indonesia and the Philippines as well as the ASEAN Secretariat, ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2005 (Jakarta: ASEAN, 2005).
19. The APEC Energy Database [http://www.ieej.or.jp/egeda/database/ database-top.html] (accessed on 21 Sept. 2006).
20. Information about the World Trade Atlas is at [http://www.gtis.com/ product.cfm?level=1&type=W] (accessed on 21 Sept. 2006).
21. Energy Information Administration (EIA) website at [http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/contents.html] (accessed on 23 September 2006).
22. Pieces of later data were becoming available at the time of writing. However, it was decided to use 2004 data almost exclusively here for the sake of consistency. Complicating matters, there was sometimes conflicting information about the size of energy imports/exports.
23. It must be noted that all of the Northeast Asian economies and some of the ASEAN members have oil refining industries. The total primary energy consumption figures include the oil "consumed" by this industry.
24. The EIA classifies Japan as a "mature market economy" and Korea and China as "emerging economies". All figures are from the EIA website at [http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/international/iealf/ tablee1.xls] (accessed on 21 September 2006).
25. See footnote 11.
26. The EIA provided no data for Cambodia, but information from other sources indicates that energy consumption growth there was very high between 1994 and 2004.
27. Masayasu Ishiguro and Takamasa Akiyama, Energy Demand in Five Major Asian Developing Countries: Structure and Prospects, World Bank Discussion Paper 277, (Washington, DC: IBRD/World Bank, 1995),38.
28. Combustible materials" refers to power derived from combustible renewables and waste, mostly biomass, i.e., twigs, grasses, crop residues, bark, dung, etc. Source: IEA. Energy Balances of Non-OECD Countries (Paris: OECD/IEA, 2005).
29. Discussion of the methodology used for generating the forecasts is available at the EIA's website: [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ analysispaper/forecasteval/forecast_eval.html] (accessed on 24 September 2006).
30. Many organisations have carried out energy forecasting work for Asia and the world. The EIA's forecasts were used here mainly because they have carried out energy forecasting work for many years, and their results are readily available on the web at [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/ index.html] (accessed on 23 September 2006). It is the general trends that are of interest here, rather than exactitude. The 'Reference Case' is used here. The EIA also generates 'High Economic Growth' and 'Low Economic Growth' scenarios.
31. The average population growth in Japan from 1994-2004, at 0.17 per cent, was by far the lowest in Asia (See Table 1).
32. Anthony Faiola, "Japanese Putting All their Energy into Saving Fuel," Washington Post, 16 February 2006 [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/02/15/ AR2006021502762.html] (accessed on 7 October 2006).
33. Calculated from EIA website at [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/excel/ ieoreftab_1.xls] (accessed on 21 September 2006).
34. Calculated from EIA website at [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/excel/ ieoreftab_4.xls] (accessed on 21 September 2006].
35. ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2005.
36. With the rise in the international price of oil however, deposits around the world once considered infeasible have become much coveted because the costs of exploitation can now be recovered. Many international oil/ gas companies have been reluctant to operate in some ASEAN countries due to concerns about lack of transparency, legal and banking irregularities, personal safety, etc.
37. "Vietnam PM Calls for Speeding up Oil Refinery Construction," Thanhniennews, 4 (August 2006) [http://www.thanhniennews.com/politics/ ?catid=1&newsid= 18496] (accessed on 9 August 2006). By September 2006, there were plans for three refineries at three different locations.
38. "Indonesia to Reduce Rather than Halt Gas Exports," AFP, (29 March 2006) [http://www.bkpm.go.id/en/ news.php?mode=baca&info_id=3445] (accessed on 10 August 2006).
39. "Indonesia to Halve LNG to Japan", The Daily Yomiuri, 29 September 2006.
40. Full details of the plans for the Trans ASEAN Gas Pipeline project are available at the ASEAN website [http://www.aseanenergy.org/ace/ work.programme.htm] (accessed on 23 September 2006).
41. Joint Media Statement of ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting held in Vientiane, (27 July 2006) [http://www.aseansec.org/18582.htm] (accessed on 9 August 2006).
42. Several ASEAN members are planning the construction of nuclear power plants despite the well-known waste-disposal and safety issues, as well as the high capital costs and long construction times. Thailand has one research reactor while Indonesia has three and has formally announced plans to build plants together capable of producing one gigawatt by 2015 and ultimately, 4 gigawatts. Vietnam, with one research reactor in place, has plans to build three nuclear power plants amounting to 1.4 to 4 gigawatts by 2020.
43. China signed long-term energy supply contracts with Japan in the late 1970s. Initially, China supplied crude oil, coking coal and steam coal. For full details, see Elspeth Thomson, The Chinese Coal Industry: An Economic History (London: Routledge Curzon, 2003), 128-29.
44. In January 2004, after thirty years, China suspended exports of crude oil to Japan. See China Suspends Exports of Crude Oil to Japan", People's Daily, 12 January 2004, [http://english.people.com.cn/200401/12/ eng20040112_132329.shtml] (accessed on 14 September 2006).
45. In the 1980s, about a quarter of China's foreign exchange was earned through the export of crude oil.
46. See World Nuclear Association website [http://www.world-nuclear.org] (accessed on 16 September 2006).
47. Pat Gao, "The Politics of Power," Taiwan Review, 4 January 2006 [http://taiwanreview.nat.gov.tw/fp.asp?xItem=1199&CtNode=128] (accessed on 23 September 2006).
48. These are minimum figures. This table lists only the largest flows from ASEAN. As mentioned in the introduction, some relative percentages of imports and exports were too small to include in the tabulations.
49. "BP to Supply LNG to Fujian Terminal," Xinhua, 30 June 2006. [http://english.sina.com/business/1/2006/0630/82137.html] (accessed on 12 August 2006).
50. Malaysia and Vietnam also export large quantities of oil to Australia.
51. Japan signed two, twenty-year contracts with Brunei: 1973-1993 and 1993-2013. See Mark Cleary and Shuang Yann Wong, Oil, Economic Development and Diversification in Brunei Darussalam (New York: St Martin's, 1994).
52. Nelly Ming, "China to Buy 10% of Myanmar's Gas Reserves," Tankervorld, 1 February 2006 [http://www.tankerworld.com/articles/70/1/ China-to-buy-10%25-of-Myanmar&%2339%3Bs-gas-reserves] (accessed on 23 September 2006).
53. The exports of oil products from the ASEAN to China, mentioned in the previous section are likely Chinese crude, which is refined and then returned to China.
54. "Harnessing the Power of the Mekong," Vietnam Investment Review, (no date) [http://www.vir.com.vn/Client/VIR/ index.asp?url=content.asp&doc=4570] (accessed on 12 August 2006).
55. A third issue is North Korea's nuclear programme. However, this is not of relevance here.
56. It is assumed here that Australia will continue to supply large amounts of energy to Northeast Asia. About 97 per cent of Australia's LNG exports go to Japan (accounting for about 15 per cent of Japan's total imports) and 2 per cent go to South Korea (accounting for about 2 per cent of South Korea's total imports). Australia is also supplying LNG to one of China's new LNG terminals (in Guangdong). Japan procures about 52 per cent of it coking coal imports from Australia (accounting for 37 per cent of Australia's total exports of coking coal), China about 47 per cent, Taipei about 81 per cent and South Korea about 58 per cent (accounting for 9 per cent of Australia's exports). As for steam coal, Japan gets 61 per cent of its imports from Australia (accounting for 55 per cent of Australia's total steam coal exports), South Korea gets 31 per cent (accounting for 15 per cent of Australia's exports), China gets 18 per cent, Taiwan gets 22 per cent (accounting for 9 per cent of Australia's exports), and Hong Kong gets 8 per cent of its imports from Australia.
57. For substantial scholarly research, for example, see the work of Fereidun Fesharaki, Kent E. Calder and Robert A. Manning. For current research reports see the websites of the Jamestown Foundation, Chatham House, The East-West Centre (Hawaii), The Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies (Singapore), The Nautilus Institute, etc.
58. See Michael Vatikiotis, "China, India and the Land Between," AsiaTmies Online, 4 March 2006 [http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/ HC04Ad01.html] (accessed on 13 August 2006);
59. and Anil K. Joseph, "India, China Plan Asia Energy Agency," Rediff.com, 13 January 2006 [http://www.rediff.com/money/2006/jan/ 13oil.htm] (accessed on 13 August 2006).
60. For detailed analysis of these disputes, see the work for example, of Mark J. Valencia, Victor Prescott, Zou Keyuan.
61. The Declaration is available in full on the ASEAN website [http://www.aseansec.org/13163.htm] (accessed on 13 August 2006).
62. For further details, see for example, Ian Storey, "China's Malacca Dilemma," Jamestown Foundation, 12 April 2006
63. and Barry Desker, "Protecting the Malacca Straits," Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies, 10, 3 March 2005.
64. "War-risk Rating on Malacca Strait Removed," Straits Times, 9 August 2006.
65. Kavi Chongkittavom, "Thai Sea Power and the Kra Isthmus Canal Project," The Nation, 14 August 2006 [http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2006/08/14/opinion/opinion_30011008.php] (accessed on 23 September 2006).
66. See Chang Youngho and Elspeth Thomson, "The Potential for Energy Conservation in East Asia" in Elspeth Thomson, ed., Energy Conservation in East Asia: Towards Greater Energy Security (forthcoming).
67. See the ASEAN Centre for Energy Website [http://www.aseanenergy.org/] (accessed on 9 August 2006)
68. and the Energy Conservation Centre of Japan [http://www.eccj.or.jp/ index_e.html (accessed on 9 August 2006).
69. See IEA website [http://www.iea.org/Textbase/about/ome.htm] (accessed on 16 September 2006).
70. See "ASEAN Mulls Joint Stockpile," Financial Express, 29 July 2006.
71. [http://www.financialexpress.com/fe_full_story.php?content_id=135595] (accessed on 13 August 2006).
72. The full text is available on the ASEAN website [http://www.aseansec.org/ 1416.htm] (accessed on 13 August 2006).
73. Thailand has managed to lift its energy price subsidies. However, the problem is far from resolved, for example, in Indonesia, China and Malaysia. See Bill Guerin, "Indonesia's Subsidies Powderkeg," AsiaTimes Online, 22 January 2002 at [http://www.atimes.com/se-asia/ DA22Ae01.html] (accessed on 11 August 2006);
74. and Shai Oster, "China Raises Fuel Prices Again but Remains Below World Levels," Wall Street Journal, 24 May 2006. [http://www.uofaweb.ualberta.ca/chinainstitute/ nav03.cfm?nav03=46363&nav02=43739&nav01-43092] (accessed on 11 August 2006);
75. and "Malaysia Says to Keep Fuel Prices Stable in 2006," Reuters, 27 April 2006 on ASEAN Energy News Service Website [http://aseanenergy.org/ news/?p=533] (accessed on 7 October 2006).