Coping with energy insecurity: China's response in global perspective

East Asia

Volumn 23, Issue 3, 2006, Pages 49-66

  Calder, Kent E ^a  

^a Korea Initiative   (South Korea)

Author keywords

And CNOOC; Chinese energy diplomacy; Energy insecurities; Energy sea lanes; Sinopec

Indexed keywords

ENERGY EFFICIENCY; ENERGY POLICY; ENERGY USE; FOREIGN POLICY; OIL SUPPLY;

ASIA; CHINA; EURASIA; FAR EAST;

EID: 33847410511     PISSN: 10966838     EISSN: None     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1007/s12140-006-0010-5     Document Type: Article

References (67)

1. The 2006 BP Statistical Review of World Energy has China's 2005 crude oil imports at 2.552 million barrels per day, and product imports at 0.832 mb/d. According to the Energy Information Administration, China's net oil imports in 2004 were 2.9 million barrels per day, after the US (12.1) and Japan (2.9). [http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/ topworldtables3_4.html].
2. China's primary energy consumption for 2005 was at 1554.0 million tons oil equivalent, while Japan's was at 524.6 million tons oil equivalent. That is, the PRC's aggregate energy demand is about three times that of Japan's. See British Petroleum. BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2006 edition), 40.
3. See International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook (second edition), (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2002), 58 and 249 [http://www.iea.org//textbase/nppdf/free/2000/weo2002.pdf].
4. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook (2006 edition) (Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, June 2006), 83. [http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/pdf/0484(2006).pdf].
5. World Energy Outlook (second edition). Average annual growth in primary energy demand from 2000-2030 for China was projected at 2.7% (249), while that for the world was expected to be 1.7% (58). The Energy Information Agency provides slightly different estimates. It projects that China's average annual percentage change in energy consumption from 2003-2030 will be 4.2%, while that for the world will be 2.0%. It also projects China's average annual percentage change in oil consumption as 3.8%, and that of the world as 1.4 % (87),
6. International Energy Outlook, (2006 edition).
7. British Petroleum Company, BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2006 edition), 32.
8. Ibid.
9. Ibid, 11.
10. Daniel Yergin, "Ensuring Energy Security," Foreign Affairs (March/ April 2006), 69-82.
11. According to IEA sources, regular unleaded gasoline was 3.686 RMB per liter in 2005, which is approximately 1.70 USD per gallon (using average rates of exchange in 2005). In the second quarter of fiscal 2005, regular unleaded was 3.616 RMB per liter, while premium unleaded was 3.948 RMB, "Energy Prices and Taxes: Quarterly Statistics," International Energy Agency, (Paris: Second Quarter 2005), International Energy Agency, (Paris: 2006), 396.
12. See for example, John Burton, Shawn Donnan, Kathrin Hille, Anita Jain, Amy Kazmin and Andew Yeh, "Asia's Energy Subsidies 'Add Fuel to Fire': Artificially Low Prices Put Stability At Risk, Economists Say", Financial Times, 8 September 2005.
13. E. Anthony Wayne, "Energy Trends in China and India and Their Implications for the U.S.," Testimony before the Committee of Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate, (Washington, D.C.: 26 July 2005). [http://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/rm/2005/66574.htm].
14. See Energy Information Administration, International Petroleum Monthly (August 2006). China stands in fifth place.
15. Transportation accounted for 38% of China's total oil demand in 2003. See U.S. Department of Energy, "Section 1837: National Security Review of International Energy Requirements," (February 2006), 7. [http://www.pi.energy.gov/pdf/library/EPACT1837FINAL.pdf#search= %22energy%20demand%20%2B%20china%20%2B%20projected%20%2B%20double%22].
16. Between 1990 and 2002 the number of air travelers in China more than tripled, from 27.3 million to 83.7 million, while the number of car registrations increased more than twelve times, from 198,000 to 2.42 million. Bo Kong, An Anatomy of China's Energy Insecurity and its Strategies (Seattle: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, December 2005), 10. [http://pnwcgs.pnl.gov/Newsletter/otherdocs/ anatchinaenergy.pdf#search=%/22total%/20%/2B%/ 20stations%20%2B%20200%20%2B%20CNPC%20%2B%20sinopec%22].
17. "Dream Machines", The Economist, 2 June 2005. China's car sales in 2005 were 5.7 million units.
18. See "China 2005 Vehicle Sales Up 13.5 Percent," Agence France Presse, 13 January 2005.
19. E. Anthony Wayne, quoting David Thomas, the head of China distribution for Ford, who notes that energy use for transportation in China is projected to grow by 5 percent per year between now and 2025.
20. See E. Anthony Wayne, "Energy Trends in China and India and Their Implications for the U.S.," (Testimony before the Committee of Foreign Relations, U.S. Senate) (Washington, D.C.: 26 July 2005). [http://www.state.gov/e/eb/rls/rm/2005/66574.htm].
21. British Petroleum, BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2006), 20.
22. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook 2004, (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2004), 117.
23. Ibid., 253.
24. British Petroleum Company, BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2006 edition), 21.
25. Bo Kong has rail accounting for 7% of crude oil imports in 2002, and 80-85% via tankers through the Straits of Malacca. See Bo Kong, An Anatomy of China's Energy Insecurity and its Strategies, 15-16. Updated from subsequent media reports.
26. See, for example, Zha Dajiong, "Energy Interdependence," China Security (Summer 2006), 8-9.
27. Bo Kong, An Anatomy of China's Energy Insecurity, 15.
28. Ibid.
29. International Energy Agency, World Energy Outlook (2004 edition) (Paris: International Energy Agency, 2004), 119.
30. On this deepening relationship, see John W. Garver, China and Iran: Ancient Partners in a Post-imperial World (Seattle: University of Washington Press, 2006).
31. Ibid.
32. Gawdat Bahgat, "Energy Partnership: China and the Gulf States," OPEC Review 29:2 (June 2005), 127.
33. Bates Gill, "Chinese Arms Exports to Iran," Middle East Review of International Affairs 2:2 (May 1998).
34. "China Set to Sign Arms Purchase Agreement with Iran," British Broadcasting Corporation, 30 August 1996.
35. "U.S. Presses Chinese on Arms Sales; State, Pentagon Reaffirm Stance After Release of CIA Report," Washington Times, 22 November 1996.
36. "A New China Embracing Nuclear Nonproliferation; The Jiang Generation of Leaders Displays a Foreign Policy Shift in Pact With U.S.; Over Supplying Iran," International Herald Tribune, 11 December 1997.
37. For examples of news reports, see Hassan M. Fattah, "Hu's Saudi Visit Signals a Change in Gulf Arab States Looking More Toward China," International Herald Tribune, 24 April 2006;
38. Mark O'Neill, "Hu Plays Diplomatic Card in Oil Game," South China Morning Post, 1 May 2006.
39. British Petroleum, BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2006 edition), 20.
40. Bo Kong, The Anatomy of China's Energy Insecurity, 13.
41. British Petroleum, BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June, 2006 edition), 20.
42. Bo Kong, The Anatomy of China's Energy Insecurity, 14.
43. See Bo Kong, The Anatomy of China's Energy Insecurity and Congressional Research Service, China and the CNOOC Bid for Unocal: Issues for Congress (Washington, D.C.: Congressional Research Service, 2005), 5.
44. Wang Qingyi, "Energy Conservation as Security," China Security (Summer, 2006), 92.
45. Calculation based on World Bank WDI Online figures. [Divided Energy use (kt of oil equivalent) by GDP (current US$) for each country].
46. "China Set to Act on Fuel Economy," New York Times, 18 November 2003.
47. Geoff Dyer, "China Increases Taxes on Big Cars to Curb Pollution and Energy Needs," The Financial Times, 23 March 2006.
48. "Chance to Revive Sales Draws Nuclear Industry to China," New York Times, 10 March 2004.
49. On the details, see Elizabeth C. Economy, The River Runs Black: The Environmental Challenge to China's Future (Ithaca: Cornell University Press, 2004).
50. On the extraordinary dimensions of China's urban pollution problems, see Elizabeth Economy. The River Runs Black.
51. See International Energy Outlook (2006), 93. Average annual percentage change in carbon dioxide emissions for China is 4.2%, for the United States 1.3%, and for the world 2.1%.
52. British Petroleum Company, BP Statistical Review of World Energy (June 2006 edition), 41.
53. See U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, "China's Energy Needs and Strategies," Hearing before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (30 October 2003), 13. (Remarks by Guy Garuso, Administrator, Energy Information Administration). [http://www.uscc.gov/hearings/2003hearings/transcripts/ 031030tran.pdf#search=%22China%20National%20Petroleum%20Corporafion%20% 2B%20Aktobemunaigaz%20%2B%2060%20%2B%20Kashagan%20%2B%2016.7%20%20%22].
54. For news reports, see James Kynge, "China Continues Its Quest for Secure Energy Supplies With Variety of Sources As the Aim," The Financial Times, 2 May 2004.
55. Michael Richardson, "Beijing's Conduit to Oil Security," South China Morning Post, 21 May 2004.
56. Warren R. True, "First Chinese Oil Import Pipeline a Step Towards Supply Diversity," Oil and Gas Journal 103: 2 (18 July 2005).
57. "China Oil Firm Closes Petro Kazakhstan Deal; CNPC Triumphs With Bid Of $4.18 Billion, Overcomes Political Challenges, Lukoil," Wall Street Journal, 28 October 2005.
58. Congressional Research Service, China and the CNOOC Bid for Unocal: Issues for Congress. (Updated 27 February 2006), 7 [http://digital.library.unt.edu/govdocs/crs//data/2006/upl-metacrs-8476/ RL33093_2006Feb27.pdf?PHPSESSID=457ed04b20d082c76a8d3bcbdb732b77#search= %22initial%20public%20offerings%20%2B%20sinopec%20%2B%20Cnooc%20%2B% 20cnpc%22].
59. "Exxon, Aramco Join Sinopec in Refinery Venture in China," Wall Street Journal, 11 July 2005.
60. Lan Xinzhen, "Prospecting the Local Oil Market," Beijing Review, 17 May 2005.
61. Bo Kong, "An Anatomy of China's Energy Insecurity and its Strategies," 47.
62. Ibid.
63. International Institute for Strategic Studies, The Military Balance, (2004-2005 edition), (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2004).
64. For a broad examination of institutional obstacles to coherent Chinese energy-policy formation, see Bo Kong, "Institutional Insecurity," China Security-(Summer 2006), 64-88.
65. Daniel Yergin, The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power (New York: Touchstone Books, 1991).
66. Calculations based on figures by the Department of Energy Office of Fossil Energy, and by The Energy Information Administration. The recently enacted Energy Policy Act directs the Department of Energy to fill the Strategic Petroleum Reserve up to one billion barrels from the current 700 million barrels of existing governmental reserve.
67. As of March 2005. See Oil Information Center, Japan website, [http://oil-info.ieej.or.jp/cgi-bin/topframemake.cgi?ParaSession=OW2].