메뉴 건너뛰기




Volumn 51, Issue 1, 2007, Pages 183-210

When can history be our guide? The pitfalls of counterfactual inference

Author keywords

[No Author keywords available]

Indexed keywords

DEMOCRATIZATION; PEACE PROCESS; PEACEKEEPING; SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS; UNITED NATIONS;

EID: 33847404030     PISSN: 00208833     EISSN: 14682478     Source Type: Journal    
DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-2478.2007.00445.x     Document Type: Article
Times cited : (156)

References (33)
  • 2
    • 0343028428 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Dozois, Gardner, and Stanley Schmidt, eds. New York: Del Rey
    • Dozois, Gardner, and Stanley Schmidt, eds. (1998) Roads not Taken: Tales of Alternative History. New York: Del Rey.
    • (1998) Roads Not Taken: Tales of Alternative History
  • 4
    • 84959595354 scopus 로고
    • Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science
    • Fearon, James D. (1991) Counterfactuals and Hypothesis Testing in Political Science. World Politics 43(2): 169-195.
    • (1991) World Politics , vol.43 , Issue.2 , pp. 169-195
    • Fearon, J.D.1
  • 5
    • 33645136921 scopus 로고
    • Party Competition and Media Messages in U.S. Presidential Election Campaigns
    • In edited by Sandy L. Maisel. Boulder: Westview Press. Available at
    • Gelman, Andrew, and Gary King. (1994) Party Competition and Media Messages in U.S. Presidential Election Campaigns. In The Parties Respond: Changes in the American Party System, edited by Sandy L. Maisel. Boulder: Westview Press. Available at http://gking.harvard.edu/ files/abs/partycomp-abs.shtml.
    • (1994) The Parties Respond: Changes in the American Party System
    • Gelman, A.1    King, G.2
  • 6
    • 0001330098 scopus 로고
    • A General Coefficient of Similarity and Some of its Properties
    • Gower, J. C. (1971) A General Coefficient of Similarity and Some of its Properties. Biometrics 27: 857-872.
    • (1971) Biometrics , vol.27 , pp. 857-872
    • Gower, J.C.1
  • 8
    • 0346856929 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data
    • Heckman, James J., Hidehiko Ichimura, Jeffrey Smith, and Petra Todd. (1998) Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data. Econometrika 66(5): 1017-1098.
    • (1998) Econometrika , vol.66 , Issue.5 , pp. 1017-1098
    • Heckman, J.J.1    Ichimura, H.2    Smith, J.3    Todd, P.4
  • 9
    • 67650815915 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Parametric Causal Inference
    • (forthcoming). Available at
    • Ho, Daniel, Kosuke Imai, Gary King, and Elizabeth Stuart. (2007) Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Parametric Causal Inference. Political Analysis (forthcoming). Available at http://gking.harvard.edu/ files/abs/matchp-abs.shtml.
    • (2007) Political Analysis
    • Ho, D.1    Imai, K.2    King, G.3    Stuart, E.4
  • 11
    • 0001505907 scopus 로고
    • Truth Is Stranger than Prediction, More Questionable Than Causal Inference
    • Available at
    • King, Gary. (1991) Truth Is Stranger than Prediction, More Questionable Than Causal Inference. American Journal of Political Science 35(4): 1047-1053. Available at http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/ truth-abs.shtml.
    • (1991) American Journal of Political Science , vol.35 , Issue.4 , pp. 1047-1053
    • King, G.1
  • 13
    • 0034409890 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation
    • Available at
    • King, Gary, Michael Tomz, and Jason Wittenberg. (2000) Making the Most of Statistical Analyses: Improving Interpretation and Presentation. American Journal of Political Science 44 (2): 341-355. Available at http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/making-abs.shtml.
    • (2000) American Journal of Political Science , vol.44 , Issue.2 , pp. 341-355
    • King, G.1    Tomz, M.2    Wittenberg, J.3
  • 14
    • 0034767648 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Improving Forecasts of State Failure
    • Available at
    • King, Gary, and Langche Zeng. (2002) Improving Forecasts of State Failure. World Politics 53(4): 623-658. Available at http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/civil-abs.shtml.
    • (2002) World Politics , vol.53 , Issue.4 , pp. 623-658
    • King, G.1    Zeng, L.2
  • 15
    • 31344479653 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals
    • Available at
    • King, Gary, and Langche Zeng. (2006a) The Dangers of Extreme Counterfactuals. Political Analysis 14(2): 131-159. Available at http://gking.harvard.edu/files/abs/counterft-abs.shtml.
    • (2006) Political Analysis , vol.14 , Issue.2 , pp. 131-159
    • King, G.1    Zeng, L.2
  • 18
    • 0009254757 scopus 로고
    • Indianapolis: Hackett Publishing Company
    • Kvart, Igal. (1986) A Theory of Counterfactuals. Indianapolis: Hackett Publishing Company.
    • (1986) A Theory of Counterfactuals
    • Kvart, I.1
  • 19
    • 0033872293 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • What's so Different About a Counterfactual?
    • Lebow, Richard Ned. (2000) What's so Different About a Counterfactual? World Politics 52: 550-585.
    • (2000) World Politics , vol.52 , pp. 550-585
    • Lebow, R.N.1
  • 20
    • 0004271399 scopus 로고
    • Cambridge: Harvard University Press
    • Lewis, David K. (1973) Counterfactuals. Cambridge: Harvard University Press.
    • (1973) Counterfactuals
    • Lewis, D.K.1
  • 21
    • 33847360466 scopus 로고
    • On Counterfactual Propositions
    • Murphy, George G. S. (1969) On Counterfactual Propositions. History and Theory 9: 14-38.
    • (1969) History and Theory , vol.9 , pp. 14-38
    • Murphy, G.G.S.1
  • 23
    • 0003135327 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Marginal Structural Models Versus Structural Nested Models as Tools for Causal Inference
    • In edited by M. E. Halloran and D. Berry. New York: Springer-Verlag
    • Robins, James M. (1999a) Marginal Structural Models Versus Structural Nested Models as Tools for Causal Inference. In Statistical Models in Epidemiology: The Environment and Clinical Trials, Vol. 116. edited by M. E. Halloran and D. Berry. New York: Springer-Verlag.
    • (1999) Statistical Models in Epidemiology: The Environment and Clinical Trials , vol.116
    • Robins, J.M.1
  • 24
    • 0001415308 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Association, Causation, and Marginal Structural Models
    • Robins, James M. (1999b) Association, Causation, and Marginal Structural Models. Synthese 121: 151-179.
    • (1999) Synthese , vol.121 , pp. 151-179
    • Robins, J.M.1
  • 25
    • 0001198982 scopus 로고
    • The Consequences of Adjusting for a Concomitant Variable That Has Been Affected by the Treatment
    • Rosenbaum, Paul. (1984) The Consequences of Adjusting for a Concomitant Variable That Has Been Affected by the Treatment. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, A 147(5): 656-666.
    • (1984) Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, A , vol.147 , Issue.5 , pp. 656-666
    • Rosenbaum, P.1
  • 26
    • 58149417330 scopus 로고
    • Estimating Causal Effects of Treatments in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies
    • Rubin, Donald B. (1974) Estimating Causal Effects of Treatments in Randomized and Nonrandomized Studies. Journal of Educational Psychology 6: 688-701.
    • (1974) Journal of Educational Psychology , vol.6 , pp. 688-701
    • Rubin, D.B.1
  • 27
    • 31344443963 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • WhatIf: Software for Evaluating Counterfactuals
    • Available at
    • Stoll, Heather, Gary King, and Langche Zeng. (2006) WhatIf: Software for Evaluating Counterfactuals. Journal of Statistical Software 15(4). Available at http://gking.harvard.edu/whatif/.
    • (2006) Journal of Statistical Software , vol.15 , Issue.4
    • Stoll, H.1    King, G.2    Zeng, L.3
  • 28
    • 67449127418 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Almost America: From the Colonists to Clinton, A "What If"
    • New York: Quill
    • Tally, Steve. (2000) Almost America: From the Colonists to Clinton, A "What If" History of the U.S. New York: Quill.
    • (2000) History of the U.S.
    • Tally, S.1
  • 29
    • 0033238814 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions
    • Tetlock, Philip E. (1999) Theory-Driven Reasoning About Plausible Pasts and Probable Futures in World Politics: Are We Prisoners of Our Preconceptions. American Journal of Political Science 43(2): 335-366.
    • (1999) American Journal of Political Science , vol.43 , Issue.2 , pp. 335-366
    • Tetlock, P.E.1
  • 30
    • 0004186221 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Tetlock, Philip E., and A. Belkin, eds. Princeton: Princeton University Press
    • Tetlock, Philip E., and A. Belkin, eds. (1996) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics. Princeton: Princeton University Press.
    • (1996) Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics
  • 31
    • 0035543620 scopus 로고    scopus 로고
    • Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive Styles and Historical Reasoning
    • Tetlock, Philip E., and Richard Ned Lebow. (2001) Poking Counterfactual Holes in Covering Laws: Cognitive Styles and Historical Reasoning. American Political Science Review 95(4): 829-843.
    • (2001) American Political Science Review , vol.95 , Issue.4 , pp. 829-843
    • Tetlock, P.E.1    Lebow, R.N.2
  • 33
    • 84925976911 scopus 로고
    • Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis
    • Thorson, Stuart J., and Donald A. Sylvan. 1982 Counterfactuals and the Cuban Missile Crisis. International Studies Quarterly 26 (4): 539-571.
    • (1982) International Studies Quarterly , vol.26 , Issue.4 , pp. 539-571
    • Thorson, S.J.1    Sylvan, D.A.2


* 이 정보는 Elsevier사의 SCOPUS DB에서 KISTI가 분석하여 추출한 것입니다.